Continuing this speculative account from those reports - which may or may not be factual, and apologies for the bluntness of the discussion:An awake fire/anchor watch or working smoke / fire alarms can make a big difference in an event like this. I cannot speak to the issue of the fire-watch being awake..... but some reports indicate that all the crew member survivors were in underwear. Not something you would think that that a required roving fire / anchor watch would be wearing in less than 60F temps at 0330.
Also, NTSB J Hornendy states in this report that an inspection of the sistership…..Vision... revealed that "smoke alarms were not connected throughout the boat".. If this is accurate, then it's probably not out of bounds to assume that similar conditions existed on the Conception.
I am heartbroken and sick for the loss of these people and for their families. But I am also being honest about how I feel about preventative procedures or equipment that could of and should of been in place.
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If there was no alert watcher for a period of some 5 to 15 minutes, not noticing an electrical overload (say), leading to smolder, fire, and conflagration, it certainly does seem possible to explain the events of the fire. Even if the watcher were awake on the upper deck reading a book or listening to music they could miss those 15 minutes. Some kind of heat / smoke alarm might have been the only thing to announce the fire if they can truly progress that quickly. If that heat / smoke alarm was not present, or inaudible, then those critical minutes are lost.
If the anchor watch was not looking around constantly, and even if the crew was awake or asleep upstairs, it might have all happened regardless. There needs to be some kind of alert to situations in the cabin, engine room, bunk room, etc, you have to give the watcher some assistance.