Felix

[halocline]

Looks pretty scary at the moment for the Bay Islands. 145kt sustained winds, looking at the model it seems likely that the bay islands will get at least 50 kt winds, and would be lucky to get just that. The bay islands seem to have a good natural barrier in the mainland, but this one might sneak right up the coast.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

I sure hope everyone's okay by the end of the week!

 

[Praxus]

Has Roatan ever been hit by a hurricane before? (since it was settled etc..)

 

[joystershell]

Has Roatan ever been hit by a hurricane before? (since it was settled etc..)

Hurricane Mitch of 1998 devasted the mainland of Honduras. Bay Islands suffered as well.

 

[Praxus]

Ok Roatan is now basically in the middle of the path for a category 5 hurricane.

Everyone should board up and be prepared to evacuate coastal areas. A direct hit at this intensity could wipe west end clean...so everyone should take this seriously.

Good luck all and lets hope for a miss!

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

 

[parrotheaddiver]

CoCo View guests were told that they would be evacuated at noon today but they are still un clear as to where:11: possibly the Jackson Mansion or a hotel in French Harbour

 

[UTLgirl]

RE: RTB Hurricanes, Fifi in the 70's, Mitch in 98'

Don't know about Roatan, but they came around last night & announced the mandatory evacuation of tourists/visitors from Utila (keeping in mind my Spanish isn't so great & I'm relying on the translation). Ferrys from both islands were to start this morning & make multiple trips. That's only as far as La Ceiba though which according to the computer models this morning... is still in the path.

 

[parrotheaddiver]

Hi Erin..I was wondering if you and Billy were going to ride this one out or leave....hope you guys are safe...thoughts and prayers to you...keep us posted...

 

[Doc]

Ok Roatan is now basically in the middle of the path for a category 5 hurricane.

If this model does hold, the storm will lose a lot of power as it makes landfall on the Cape of Honduras. Notice that "red" marked area? If that should happen, it would be a good thing for the Bay Islands, but the South side will take a real beating.

The big story here will be Nicaragua's Corn Islands. Much as Mitch (98) was known back then, no one in the US ever heard of Guanaja or the Bay Islands. Only 5 Bay Islands resident deaths were directly attributed to that storm, although 12k were lost on the mainland.

Corn Island is marked to be an invisible victim. Buena suerte.

 

[Praxus]

I agree Roatanman, the more southerly path today is a 'good thing' for the bay islands but bad for people living on the mainland in coastal areas - especially in areas prone to mudslides etc. Still it must be remembered that it can go anywhere in the 'cone' so it could still pass north or over the bay islands.

One good thing is that the wind field is small with Felix - hurricane force winds are only about 30 miles around the eye.

Still, anyone evacuating to the mainland should be well inland, in a secure (concrete / brick etc) structure if near the coast, and not in an area at risk of mudslides.

 

[UTLgirl]

Or in an area where you have to cross a bridge. Several bridges were lost in Mitch stranding thousands.