Euro 2008

[ScubaTexan]

Spain have been the best team in Europe for the last two years, ever since the conclusion of the 2006 World Cup. This was a just reward for them for their success (22 matches unbeaten now) since the onset of Euro 2008 qualifying. I'd like to see what the odds on them are right now for the 2010 World Cup.

 

[Nick_W]

Spain have been the best team in Europe for the last two years, ever since the conclusion of the 2006 World Cup. This was a just reward for them for their success (22 matches unbeaten now) since the onset of Euro 2008 qualifying. I'd like to see what the odds on them are right now for the 2010 World Cup.

I'm not sure I would bet on them winning the 2010 World Cup. First, its two years away. A lot can happen in that time.

Second, they won Euro 2008, but it isn't as if they won it in overwhelmingly convincing fashion. Not to take anything away from the accomplishment at all but PKs vs. Italy and a 1-0 (with the winner in the 33 minute) over a German team that has been giving away goals easier than a prom date's virginity just isn't all that convincing to me.

Third, Aragones is gone.

Fourth, look at some of the players who either won't be around or will be pushing it age wise, I'll just list the guys who will be 30 or over. Puyol will be 32, Marchena will be 31, Capdevila will be 32, Juanito certainly won't be there (not that it matters a whole lot), Xavi Hernández will be 30, Senna (probably won't be there) will be 34, Güiza will be 30. Now I'm not saying a guy can't play after 30, I'm just saying....

Fifth, up until Euro 2008, who was Spain's competition in those 22 unbeaten matches? They've had some friendlies they've won 1-0 over some decent competition but for meaningful competition its been powerhouses like Northern Ireland, Liechtenstein, Latvia, Iceland and other mighty footballing nations.


Anyway, those are just a few reasons I don't see this as a sign that Spain will win a World Cup in 2010. I would bet on a European team winning the World Cup in 2010, but I don't see it being Spain.

 

[ScubaTexan]

Current 2010 World Cup odds

Interesting...

 

[Deefstes]

Anyway, those are just a few reasons I don't see this as a sign that Spain will win a World Cup in 2010. I would bet on a European team winning the World Cup in 2010, but I don't see it being Spain.

Good points. Makes sense. I was thinking that Holland might be a very strong contender for the crown with all their young talent and coherent play. With van Basten quiting I do have my doubts though.

 

[Rhone Man]

Spain will never win the 2010 World Cup, and I will tell you why.

No European team has ever won the World Cup held outside of Europe.

In fact, only Brazil has ever won the World Cup outside of their home continent (and Brazil has done it three times - in Sweden, USA and Japan).

SA might be a little bit different, because it will be winter there for the 2010 World Cup, which should in theory assist European teams, but I don't see the jinx getting broken.

 

[Deefstes]

Well, I'd say prepare yourself for history being made 'cause it sure ain't gonna be an African team to win this World Cup. I'm South Africa but I'll be rooting for Brazil. Always have, even before South Africa participated in international events.

 

[Nick_W]

Good points. Makes sense. I was thinking that Holland might be a very strong contender for the crown with all their young talent and coherent play. With van Basten quiting I do have my doubts though.

The same could be said for just about every Dutch team to ever set foot on a soccer pitch. I really like them, but they're just one of those teams that, as much talent as they have, just never seems to get it done.

Spain will never win the 2010 World Cup, and I will tell you why.

No European team has ever won the World Cup held outside of Europe.

In fact, only Brazil has ever won the World Cup outside of their home continent (and Brazil has done it three times - in Sweden, USA and Japan).

SA might be a little bit different, because it will be winter there for the 2010 World Cup, which should in theory assist European teams, but I don't see the jinx getting broken.

Personally I don't put a lot of stock in jinxes and the stats that go along with them. I'm sure there is something to the idea that South American teams tend to win in South/Central America and European teams tend to win in Europe. I'm not even really going to count the Asian and North American victories as there has only been one World Cup on each of those continents. But that doesn't mean teams can't win away from their home continent.

The thing about international soccer is that stats don't really mean a whole lot. Like when you hear someone talk about how Spain hasn't beaten Italy in a competitive match since 1920 (and technically still haven't). What they fail to mention is the two haven't met but a handful of times in competitive matches in that time.

There have only been 18 World Cups and only seven countries have ever won the thing. I find it hard to do any real statistical analysis on numbers like that.

Oh, except I will say that the United States did come in third one year, which means they are actually better than Spain in World Cups.

Well, I'd say prepare yourself for history being made 'cause it sure ain't gonna be an African team to win this World Cup. I'm South Africa but I'll be rooting for Brazil. Always have, even before South Africa participated in international events.

I don't see it happening, to be perfectly honest, but there are some African teams who certainly have the ability to play Cinderella. Camaroon, Egypt, and Nigeria aren't too shabby and I always love to watch Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire play. Actually, more than anything I love watching their fans. Win or lose those dude look like they're having a blast.

 

[Rhone Man]

I'm sure there is something to the idea that South American teams tend to win in South/Central America and European teams tend to win in Europe.

I remember in the last World Cup the bookmakers made Brazil favourites, and Argentina second favourites, and I told everyone that neither would win on the basis of the 'European teams (almost) always win World Cups contested in Europe' and sure as eggs are eggs, all the non-European teams gone by the semis.

Like you say, you can't read too much into history, but it is certainly a pretty notable trend.

 

[Nick_W]

I remember in the last World Cup the bookmakers made Brazil favourites, and Argentina second favourites, and I told everyone that neither would win on the basis of the 'European teams (almost) always win World Cups contested in Europe' and sure as eggs are eggs, all the non-European teams gone by the semis.

Like you say, you can't read too much into history, but it is certainly a pretty notable trend.

It really is worth noting, I'm with you there. I still have a sneaking suspicion we're going to see a European winner in 2010 though.

Personally, if neither the U.S. nor Germany are hoisting the Cup, I'm hoping for a host continent winner. That would be awesome to not only see someone new win it, but to see a country like my favorite African team, Ghana, win the thing.