Personally, I wouldn't speculate on his relative chances or success or failure. That's simply because there has been no information published on
how he intends to make the attempt.
If, however, he was planning the attempt using the
same approach as previous attempts, successful and unsuccessful, have used; then I think it is a pointless exercise that carries a high risk of tragic conclusion.
My assumption, based on the little information publicly available, is that there will be no novel or ground-breaking strategy introduced during his depth record attempt.
If no cutting-edge or revolutionary approach is being used, then there is little potential for learning or advancement from the attempt. The scientific factors relating to hyperbaric physiological effects at these depth ranges are already well understood and predictable. Commercial diving conquered the challenges of reaching these depths many decades ago.
HPNS and compression arthralgia precludes rapid descent to extreme depth. Commercial diving solved this issue by drastically slowing onset of pressure through very slow descents in surface-supplied diving bells.
That approach contrasts distinctly from the rapid 'bounce' dive attempts that have hallmarked scuba record attempts thus far. No scuba depth record attempt has yet opted to instigate a comparably slow descent, due to logistical/practical limitations on the gas that can be carried.
Other extreme depth factors, like gas selection, gas delivery, precision gas production / blending and thermal protection have also been solved in the commercial diving world.
I am absolutely stumped to find any scientific advancements that a '
plummet and pray' approach to attaining extreme depth in scuba equipment can provide. Beyond, of course, more positive evidence that the existing solutions are fatally flawed and inherently limited.
For those that missed it, here are two pertinent background articles relating to the 2015 world depth record attempt:
A Fatal Attempt - Psychological Factors in the Failed World Depth Record Attempt 2015
by Andy Davis
(amended and also published in Diver Medic and Dive Safety Magazine, Dive Magazine and Skydive Magazine)
Factors in Deep Scuba Diving | Doppler's Tech Diving Blog
by Steve Lewis