Diver missing at Ginnie?

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I wrote this yesterday in another forum, as more rumours came forward and I had more discussions, I can't help but feel that we need to look at this MUCH more holistically and challenge our assumptions and attitudes.

"After WW2 a bunch of pilots with good training, time and so forth from the war started flying around in private planes. It was a serious boom time in single engine aircraft like cessna, piper etc. Anyhow, controlled flight into terrain was always an issue (and still is) but after the war during this boom, it became massive. What perplexed the forerunner to the FAA and the flying industry is that the folks doing it really, absolutely knew better, had proven skills in bad situations and yet were doing it. So, some folks started to really study it, including asking around of the same types of private pilots if they had had close calls with CFIT and why. Most started with "I knew better but was in a rush to get there (aka get there itis), but then they started to pick up on pilots making comments like "so, I was in the clouds and lost track of altitude, speed or something. Anyhow, there I was trying to figure out what way was up etc and I kept on looking at the wrong dang instrument! It wasn't where I was used to from my xxx (x) hours during the war in my XX aircraft". So, they then started to experiment on the "standard T" where the instruments were placed in the same spot. Shortly after all the aircraft manufs. came onboard with doing the same on their panels and the CFIT safety record greatly improved within the decade.

I promise you however, that there was not "nothing to learn" but everything to learn from the bad outcome of pilots flying their aircraft into the ground, mountain, trees etc. People knew that broke the safety rules. In fact, early 2000's there was a spate of issues when general aviation got glass panels in some aircraft like the Cirrus, where people just did seemingly stupid things. Then better glass panel transition training and what has become fairly standardized."
The problem is, a “holistic” change has to come from the agency down. But a for-profit agency won’t make that type of change knowing they will be forcing an instructor/instructor trainer to do something they don’t want to do, because that person will just teach for a different agency instead. So in reality, it has to come from the students recognizing which instructors are teaching unsafe practices, either costing the bad ones business or forcing them to change. Unfortunately, safety isn’t generally a reason for an agency or instructor to change a standard, money is.

I do believe there has been a bit of a shift in recent years from the students, which is why I think some the more “holistic” agencies and instructors are seeing significant growth, but the social media influencer instructors will always have a larger influence on the status quo than those who work more quietly focusing on improving quality rather than self promotion.
 
Let's quickly say the rumour and get it out of the way. That Andrew was on OC, solo, had done at least one set up dive staging bottles in the cave and on the fateful dive had switched to an oxygen bottle far back in the cave at the Ginnie depths of somewhere between 85 and 100ft. AGAIN, this is rumour.

First, I don't know anything about this situation other than that the diver drowned at Ginnie Springs. I haven't asked anyone for info because I don't have a dog in the fight anymore because I don't dive or cave dive anymore. I will tell a personal story because I think it might be useful for others to learn from my experience from when I used to be cool.

If my memory is right, a little over ten years ago a WKPP dive drowned related of a bad gas switch to a 50% bottle at depth. I always considered the MOD70 bottle one of the most dangerous ones because it is usually the same form factor as a deep mix bottle. Anyway, a week or two after that incident happened I was diving with a buddy at a site where the profile runs ~70' for a good distance then it dips to ~150+ which is where we were going to do our exploration and survey. This was a multi-bottle OC sidemount dive. We had large sidemounts of 18/45 or similar plus two AL80s filled with 18/45 plus the one 50% plus LP steels of oxygens which were prepositioned. The plan was to breath the 50% on the way in and deco out on it. So the stage bottle config was, one 18/45 then a 50% on the side and butt clip one of the 18/45 bottles since its buoyancy profile would let it more or less ride in the slipstream while you were scootering. We are gearing up in the river, which is tannic. After I get all my stuff rigged on, I am waiting for my buddy to get all his stuff rigged on. When he gets rigged up I am kind of hanging out and doing a head to toe on him and I notice he has the 70 labeled tank butt clipped instead of a 240. I was kind of hyper-attenuated to this since a similar situation resulted in a fatality so I spoke up and asked my buddy if he had his tanks rigged wrong. He looked and gave a sheepish "oh ****" and then swapped and we did the dive no incidents.

Would I have been paying close enough attention to the MOD on my buddy's tanks and/or spoken up if the prior fatality wasn't on my mind? Maybe. Would he have noticed on his own during the dive he was breathing his 18/45 on the way in? Maybe. If he didn't notice it on the way in would he or I have noticed before doing the gas switch on the way in? Maybe. But because that diver had (1) a buddy and (2) clearly visible MOD labels we didn't need to find out that day.

I never dove with the deceased as a buddy team but I spoke with him in person and online and filled tanks for him on more than one occasion when I lived my former life. In fact, I remember running into him at the cave in the story I relayed above, and it may have been the same day that the story I relayed above happened, I don't know for sure. I am sorry to his family and friends for their loss.
 
First, I don't know anything about this situation other than that the diver drowned at Ginnie Springs. I haven't asked anyone for info because I don't have a dog in the fight anymore because I don't dive or cave dive anymore. I will tell a personal story because I think it might be useful for others to learn from my experience from when I used to be cool.

If my memory is right, a little over ten years ago a WKPP dive drowned related of a bad gas switch to a 50% bottle at depth. I always considered the MOD70 bottle one of the most dangerous ones because it is usually the same form factor as a deep mix bottle. Anyway, a week or two after that incident happened I was diving with a buddy at a site where the profile runs ~70' for a good distance then it dips to ~150+ which is where we were going to do our exploration and survey. This was a multi-bottle OC sidemount dive. We had large sidemounts of 18/45 or similar plus two AL80s filled with 18/45 plus the one 50% plus LP steels of oxygens which were prepositioned. The plan was to breath the 50% on the way in and deco out on it. So the stage bottle config was, one 18/45 then a 50% on the side and butt clip one of the 18/45 bottles since its buoyancy profile would let it more or less ride in the slipstream while you were scootering. We are gearing up in the river, which is tannic. After I get all my stuff rigged on, I am waiting for my buddy to get all his stuff rigged on. When he gets rigged up I am kind of hanging out and doing a head to toe on him and I notice he has the 70 labeled tank butt clipped instead of a 240. I was kind of hyper-attenuated to this since a similar situation resulted in a fatality so I spoke up and asked my buddy if he had his tanks rigged wrong. He looked and gave a sheepish "oh ****" and then swapped and we did the dive no incidents.

Would I have been paying close enough attention to the MOD on my buddy's tanks and/or spoken up if the prior fatality wasn't on my mind? Maybe. Would he have noticed on his own during the dive he was breathing his 18/45 on the way in? Maybe. If he didn't notice it on the way in would he or I have noticed before doing the gas switch on the way in? Maybe. But because that diver had (1) a buddy and (2) clearly visible MOD labels we didn't need to find out that day.

I never dove with the deceased as a buddy team but I spoke with him in person and online and filled tanks for him on more than one occasion when I lived my former life. In fact, I remember running into him at the cave in the story I relayed above, and it may have been the same day that the story I relayed above happened, I don't know for sure. I am sorry to his family and friends for their loss.

Don't kid yourself, you're still cool. Thanks for sharing the story.
 
With as much evidence as we have (even with extremely poor accident analysis and reporting) that show both of these practices are common in many accidents, it is mind boggling that the industry still argues that they are acceptable.
Something doesn't have to be the lowest risk option to be an acceptable option for some. I'm speaking of the solo aspect, which you mentioned, not the other thing. I'm a solo diver for some of my diving, not a cave diver. Solo diving has long been criticized as less safe than buddy diving, a point often debated that depends on situational specifics, but even if someone objectively demonstrates solo diving (cave or not, I'd imagine) is less safe than buddy diving, that won't necessarily = unacceptable. The follow up questions are 1.) Just how much less safe is it, and 2.) What level of danger is judged acceptable vs. unacceptable?

Those of you who cave dive solo, what do you think of the subject? How much more dangerous would solo cave diving have to be to make you deem it unacceptable?

The answers might have a bearing on what we should and shouldn't 'learn' from the example of this man's death (which I take it was cave diving solo).
 
Something doesn't have to be the lowest risk option to be an acceptable option for some. I'm speaking of the solo aspect, which you mentioned, not the other thing. I'm a solo diver for some of my diving, not a cave diver. Solo diving has long been criticized as less safe than buddy diving, a point often debated that depends on situational specifics, but even if someone objectively demonstrates solo diving (cave or not, I'd imagine) is less safe than buddy diving, that won't necessarily = unacceptable. The follow up questions are 1.) Just how much less safe is it, and 2.) What level of danger is judged acceptable vs. unacceptable?

Those of you who cave dive solo, what do you think of the subject? How much more dangerous would solo cave diving have to be to make you deem it unacceptable?

The answers might have a bearing on what we should and shouldn't 'learn' from the example of this man's death (which I take it was cave diving solo).

in professional risk analysis you typically look at 3 variables with the version that I like being multiplied on a scale of 1-10.
Severity-1 being fairly inconsequential, 10 being catastrophic
Probability-1 being highly unlikely, 10 being almost guaranteed
Detectability-1 being very obvious, 10 being almost impossible

If something has a score of 1 then you don't worry about it, but if it has a score of 1000 then you need to avoid. The scales are ever sliding and you need to independently determine the risk of any particular dive and how a buddy may affect that. In a really tight no-mount restriction then the probability and severity of an incident may go up by having a second diver in there. Conversely a backgas only dive in a cave that you have a lot of experience with and are diving well within your comfort level *say a full cave diver doing a solo dive in the Ginnie Ballroom* may not have any change in risk. A big exploration dive with lots of gas switches, work that needs to be conducted, etc may have the scale move to a smaller risk value based on team diving. There is no cut and dry answer to whether a buddy increases or decreases risk, or does not change the risk of diving, it is all based on the individual dive.

You have to individually determine what scale you use to grade a level of risk and you individually have to determine what level of risk you are willing to accept. Those may change as you age, after an injury, after a life changing event, after a long period of time out of the water, after a long period of lower difficulty diving, etc. and that is one that we are not great at establishing.
 
Something doesn't have to be the lowest risk option to be an acceptable option for some. I'm speaking of the solo aspect, which you mentioned, not the other thing. I'm a solo diver for some of my diving, not a cave diver. Solo diving has long been criticized as less safe than buddy diving, a point often debated that depends on situational specifics, but even if someone objectively demonstrates solo diving (cave or not, I'd imagine) is less safe than buddy diving, that won't necessarily = unacceptable. The follow up questions are 1.) Just how much less safe is it, and 2.) What level of danger is judged acceptable vs. unacceptable?

Those of you who cave dive solo, what do you think of the subject? How much more dangerous would solo cave diving have to be to make you deem it unacceptable?

The answers might have a bearing on what we should and shouldn't 'learn' from the example of this man's death (which I take it was cave diving solo).
to answer that, the industry (rec, tech, and cave) would need a formal accident and near miss investigation process, which we don’t. We (individual divers, dive centers, and agencies) sweep most incidents under the rug as has been mentioned already in this thread.

there’s a lot to be said for solo diving being safer than diving with an incompetent “insta-buddy”, which really just leads back to the issue of inadequate training an methodology coming from the top-down.

As for what level of risk in cave diving is acceptable, well, I think that’s the importance of adequate investigation processes. What percentage of cave diving fatalities in the past 20 years were solo (or solo mindset, meaning two independent divers just in the water at the same time)? Of those, which would have been avoided using proper team diving practices? We’d need that data to know.
 
Pandora box just opened.

But I agree more than 100%.
It’s strange, I don’t know any agency or instructor that doesn’t teach team confirmation for gas switches. Yet they allow/advocate solo diving. 🤷‍♂️
 
It’s strange, I don’t know any agency or instructor that doesn’t teach team confirmation for gas switches. Yet they allow/advocate solo diving. 🤷‍♂️

I had no idea of this, since I know only gue standards... Very weird indeed
 
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