I'm generally not a super optimist when it comes to predicting how good technology will become. In terms of biometric analysis, however, we might be closer than we think. I say this based on the current blood glucose monitors available now for diabetics. A small patch placed on the abdomen monitors blood sugar and sends the data to your phone. We can currently also monitor blood oxygen saturation directly through the skin. So maybe not within 10 years, but I would't be surprised to see some kind of biometric systems creeping into the market in the not-so-distant future.
Dive computers of the future?
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I'm generally not a super optimist when it comes to predicting how good technology will become. In terms of biometric analysis, however, we might be closer than we think. I say this based on the current blood glucose monitors available now for diabetics. A small patch placed on the abdomen monitors blood sugar and sends the data to your phone. We can currently also monitor blood oxygen saturation directly through the skin. So maybe not within 10 years, but I would't be surprised to see some kind of biometric systems creeping into the market in the not-so-distant future.
Yeah..... I get that but for most divers it's just a complication. What I see as the major trend in diving is simplification, not complication. This is a function of the "leisure" status of diving for the majority of certified divers.
For some divers a computer that uses biometric data may have a use but it will be prohibitively expensive to develop for a small market and therefore I think it is unlikely to gain much traction outside of professional divers. Even among professional divers it will have to add something significant to safety or time gains in order to justify using it. Especially the time gains are something that could theoretically justify the R&D costs.
For this same reason I don't think that CCR's will become very popular. It takes a lot of commitment to detail to assemble and dissemble, clean and maintain them after every dive and therefore they will continue to remain popular as a way for some divers to limit their long-term costs for trimix, but for the mainstream it will just be too ... much ... work.
Same with any kind of computer that is anything less than dead simple. I don't see people paying for it.
R..
All of what you just said is why I think what I posted before.
Computers really haven't changed much in years because diving itself hasn't really changed much in years. As long as diving stays the same - i.e. OC, using air or nitrox to a max of 130', there is no impetus for major changes in dive computers.
CCRs ARE a lot of work - now. Solid state O2 sensors are here, but not really implemented yet. Give that a couple of years. CO2 scrubbing is pretty primitive at this point. But, the scuba industry is just one niche that is driving the technology to get better. The aerospace industry is another that has a lot of motivating factors to make big improvements in CO2 scrubbing tech. I don't think it's too farfetched to imagine that we will have an improvement analogous to solid state O2 sensors in the next 5 - 10 years. I.e. CO2 scrubbers that use solid state tech, so they last indefinitely with little maintenance. Or maybe there's a cartridge or part to replace, but instead of every dive or 2 or 3, it would be every month or 2 or 6. And, of course, the scrubber gets SMALLER, too.
So, imagine O2 sensors that have advanced to the point of reliability that is equal to or better than our current state of dive computers (think SW Petrel-like reliability). And imagine CO2 scrubbing tech that means nothing but annual maintenance on the CCR to preserve its ability to scrub CO2. And the whole unit, not counting whatever cylinders you decide to use, is 1/4 (or less) the size of a current head and scrubber assembly.
At that point, CCRs can be no more "work" than current OC tech. Even if they require a shop visit for maintenance every 6 months. Once they are that simple and reliable, I imagine people will be doing OW training on them and not even needing to carry a bailout bottle. They will be regarded as just as reliable as current OC tech is now, which people dive all the time without redundant gas.
Increasing volumes of sales, combined with these improvements in tech, will drive CCR prices down. They are $5K to $10K now. They could easily get down to $2K (for a good one). $2K for a ready-to-go CCR, instead of all the money you'd spend buying a reg set, and a BCD, and a dive computer, and sets of big cylinders. Even if it's $3K to 4K, if it replaces all those other purchases, it still starts to make financial sense. And it's small enough to carry with you on a fly/dive trip and just rent small cylinders of gas at your destination.
At that point, diving itself will undergo a major change and THAT will drive major changes to dive computers. Until then, it will be status quo with incremental improvements just like we've been seeing for years.
Computers really haven't changed much in years because diving itself hasn't really changed much in years. As long as diving stays the same - i.e. OC, using air or nitrox to a max of 130', there is no impetus for major changes in dive computers.
CCRs ARE a lot of work - now. Solid state O2 sensors are here, but not really implemented yet. Give that a couple of years. CO2 scrubbing is pretty primitive at this point. But, the scuba industry is just one niche that is driving the technology to get better. The aerospace industry is another that has a lot of motivating factors to make big improvements in CO2 scrubbing tech. I don't think it's too farfetched to imagine that we will have an improvement analogous to solid state O2 sensors in the next 5 - 10 years. I.e. CO2 scrubbers that use solid state tech, so they last indefinitely with little maintenance. Or maybe there's a cartridge or part to replace, but instead of every dive or 2 or 3, it would be every month or 2 or 6. And, of course, the scrubber gets SMALLER, too.
So, imagine O2 sensors that have advanced to the point of reliability that is equal to or better than our current state of dive computers (think SW Petrel-like reliability). And imagine CO2 scrubbing tech that means nothing but annual maintenance on the CCR to preserve its ability to scrub CO2. And the whole unit, not counting whatever cylinders you decide to use, is 1/4 (or less) the size of a current head and scrubber assembly.
At that point, CCRs can be no more "work" than current OC tech. Even if they require a shop visit for maintenance every 6 months. Once they are that simple and reliable, I imagine people will be doing OW training on them and not even needing to carry a bailout bottle. They will be regarded as just as reliable as current OC tech is now, which people dive all the time without redundant gas.
Increasing volumes of sales, combined with these improvements in tech, will drive CCR prices down. They are $5K to $10K now. They could easily get down to $2K (for a good one). $2K for a ready-to-go CCR, instead of all the money you'd spend buying a reg set, and a BCD, and a dive computer, and sets of big cylinders. Even if it's $3K to 4K, if it replaces all those other purchases, it still starts to make financial sense. And it's small enough to carry with you on a fly/dive trip and just rent small cylinders of gas at your destination.
At that point, diving itself will undergo a major change and THAT will drive major changes to dive computers. Until then, it will be status quo with incremental improvements just like we've been seeing for years.
I agree with you. Poseidon also agrees with us, which is why they are pushing so hard for the sensors etc that you are talking about.
In fact, with their philosophy, you wouldn't travel anywhere with your unit. You would simply take the battery along which has all your settings saved (depth limits, dil contents etc etc ) and just plug it into the unit available for rent at the dive op.
I suspect that they will have an uphill struggle to convince existing RB users but I have no doubt that they will find a following with new divers who want to do recreational dives with the benefits of a RB without all the futzing around necessary with the existing tech. FWIW I dive the MK6 almost exclusively these days, most of the diving is less than 100' and BOY if I could have started off on one of these it would have been wonderful.
To the original post, I do believe that biometrics will be the next major change in PDC. There are already heart rate monitor equipped units and I suspect it will only go from there.
Since I started SCUBA in 2000 I have heard of the "fit diver" syndrome and all the disclaimers over the source of table data etc etc but still there is no significant change in how we use that info other than choosing an arbitrary conservatism setting and hoping that compensates.
I have a device I wear all day on my wrist that knows my BMI, heart rate, calorie burn, physical fitness etc etc. Surely a PDC that starts with the regular algorithms and then can dial in a conservatism based on known, measurable risk factors can't be too much to ask. Like adjusting GF but with a bit more actual data to work from rather than figuring out if I feel "better" after a dive or not.
I think the problem is that there is insufficient data available to turn all that biometric data into a reliable level of conservatism. It seems like trying to use that data is just adding another very fuzzy layer on top of an already very fuzzy way of determining a safe ascent plan.
OTOH, if doppler bubble detection IS a reliable way to evaluate imminent onset of DCS, then future computers may be able to operate for maximum diver safety withOUT all that other biometric data. I'm imagining 2 or 3 self-powered "patches" that you stick on yourself under your suit (say, at neck, arm pit, and crotch) that your dive computer (which lives inside your CCR's brain box) reads during a dive to monitor bubbles. Maybe the patches do doppler monitoring and monitor blood O2 level. And, ideally, have some way to detect CO poisoning in your blood, and maybe a way to detect CO2 saturation (hypercapnia?).
Tiny wireless sensors, read by a tiny, ultra-reliable computer in the CCR, a tiny HUD display, and a couple of buttons somewhere for emergency override use. Current tech should make all this future tech pretty easy to envision. Things are getting smaller, more reliable, and losing wires every day.
I think there are other issues. Decompression models are all "black box" models. We know we can use it and dive safely but the actual physiological processes at work are not being modeled. In order to incorporate biometric data into the decompression schedules an entirely new type of model will be needed and as far as I know very little research of value is being done.
Also, I think you have to consider the cost-benefit issue here. If the current black-box models are giving a DCS incidence of 1:100,000 then putting all kinds of money, time and effort into developing a new model using all kinds of biometric data that kicks the DCS ratio up to 1:200,000 isn't going to *statistically* be enough of a difference to really interest people. Maybe if the models in the future reach 1:1,000,000 then you will get people's attention, but before that we are going to go through a phase of pumping a LOT of money into a VERY small issue.
Again, I just don't think people will pay for it.
I think RainPilot might be right in that some biometric data will be captured by your computer and maybe even some of it will be used to "fudge" the NDL one way or another within some boundaries, but once again, in the absence of a proper model for it, all this will turn out to be is a "gizmo" with little or no practical value where the rubber meets the road.
R..
Also, I think you have to consider the cost-benefit issue here. If the current black-box models are giving a DCS incidence of 1:100,000 then putting all kinds of money, time and effort into developing a new model using all kinds of biometric data that kicks the DCS ratio up to 1:200,000 isn't going to *statistically* be enough of a difference to really interest people. Maybe if the models in the future reach 1:1,000,000 then you will get people's attention, but before that we are going to go through a phase of pumping a LOT of money into a VERY small issue.
Again, I just don't think people will pay for it.
I think RainPilot might be right in that some biometric data will be captured by your computer and maybe even some of it will be used to "fudge" the NDL one way or another within some boundaries, but once again, in the absence of a proper model for it, all this will turn out to be is a "gizmo" with little or no practical value where the rubber meets the road.
R..
I agree on the simplicity and cost. However, I don't see the costs being that high. For example, the transdermal oxygen monitors can be had for under $20 bucks. Blood glucose monitors aren't much more. I also can envision these as being "add ons" to a an existing computer, much in the way that AI is now an option.
Agree totally @Diver0001 , the research money isn't there. However, we already have a model for what I believe will be the way forward. Thats the software industry (desktop and mobile).
I firmly believe that the priority for us as divers should be to start voting with our wallets toward PDC with defined or even open source standards, like we had with Bluetooth, WiFi etc etc. Once that is in place, it allows enterprising folks to integrate all sorts of interesting ideas and sensors etc etc with existing computers. A huge step forward lately has been toward PDC that are actually a regular computer running a dive "app", like the OSTC and DeepBlu etc
The big benefit to us as consumers is that it becomes like buying a mobile phone. pick the brand (quality) that you like (SW vs Suunto vs ChinaBrand ) and then add the capabilities / 3rd party hardware / software that makes sense to you. Once a new gadget / gizmo comes online, plug and play. At most a firmware update required.
I for one am looking forward to checking out the Dive App store one day
I firmly believe that the priority for us as divers should be to start voting with our wallets toward PDC with defined or even open source standards, like we had with Bluetooth, WiFi etc etc. Once that is in place, it allows enterprising folks to integrate all sorts of interesting ideas and sensors etc etc with existing computers. A huge step forward lately has been toward PDC that are actually a regular computer running a dive "app", like the OSTC and DeepBlu etc
The big benefit to us as consumers is that it becomes like buying a mobile phone. pick the brand (quality) that you like (SW vs Suunto vs ChinaBrand ) and then add the capabilities / 3rd party hardware / software that makes sense to you. Once a new gadget / gizmo comes online, plug and play. At most a firmware update required.
I for one am looking forward to checking out the Dive App store one day
Bubblesong
Contributor
↑
... This is why I dislike science fiction ...
You may wish to start with Vonnegut:
didn't Vonnegut predict the the human race would mutate into furry marine mammals? No dive equipment needed!
But in terms of inventions, the futuristic Star Trek sliding doors open at every supermarket and the Star Fleet communicator is playing Pokemon Go all over town. We can imagine break throughs, and we can really make life easier and safer for more divers.
What about a rebreather with an Oxygen and helium add on that adjusts gas mixture based on depth?
... This is why I dislike science fiction ...
You may wish to start with Vonnegut:
didn't Vonnegut predict the the human race would mutate into furry marine mammals? No dive equipment needed!
But in terms of inventions, the futuristic Star Trek sliding doors open at every supermarket and the Star Fleet communicator is playing Pokemon Go all over town. We can imagine break throughs, and we can really make life easier and safer for more divers.
What about a rebreather with an Oxygen and helium add on that adjusts gas mixture based on depth?
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