Data Request

[zaberman1]

Hey All,

I have been trying to collect data on the number of monthly certifications completed for major diving agencies since their data collection began, I can be much more specific to those interested. PADI has given me yearly numbers but it would be nice to get more meaningful information.

My purpose is academic in nature. I am attempting to produce a forecasting model that projects future seasonal volatility, demand for diving, correlation with other known trends, and market shares for the coming years. I receive agency emails and read all kinds of numbers online, I am simply attempting to verify what I read. If I am allowed, I will provide the report for those interested. Just send me a pm and I will send the report when completed...

Any suggestions for additional data sources? Contacts?

Zach

 

[scubadiver888]

One reason agencies would be reluctant to share information is they don't want the competition using it for marketing purposes. Maybe you can work out a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) with each agency. Promise to post amalgamated results. Don't identify which numbers came from which agencies.

Additionally, DEMA might have numbers. DAN might be another source of data. Look at who attends the workshops DAN puts together and you might be able to come up with more people to approach.

 

[AndyNZ]

How are you going to limit it geopgraphically? For example, June, July and August are very quiet months for me. Typically, if I do two students in those three months then it's a lot. Meanwhile, those will be peak months in the northern hemisphere. Yet some places (tropical resorts) will be busy all year around.

Personally, I think a global prediction model will be too hard - there are simply too many interlinked factors. The various economies, exchange rates (impacts travel holiday destination choices), local weather variation and so on. Anything other than the crudest of statistical models will take forever to run, even if you have a decent supercomputer. And a crude statistical model will be about as accurate as sticking a wet thumb in the air.

 

[zaberman1]

I am not collecting worldwide data, only data for the United States (for obvious reasons). I should have mentioned that in the original post...

If you are interested in model specifics, I can give you that information when completed. Basically, my first endeavor is a time series forecast model. The data I have already collected fits very nicely into my hypothesized model. I am not sure how technical you want me to be but I am using multiple methodologies to model the data.

The second endeavor is an explanatory model but right now, my concern is forecasting.

EDIT: This is being used for an Economic Forecasting Project Proposal at FSU. I will also post the project as a pdf to the forum but it will take a few months. For those that want to verify my results, they can PM me and I will send them a SASS or EViews file with the details and an Excel sheet with the raw data. It will be technical but I will make it as accessible as possible. I will redact what I have to...

 

[The Chairman]

Good luck. There are forums for a number of the agencies here on ScubaBoard. Ask 'em directly.

 

[Doppler]

Great suggestion Pete. I know we were not asked.

Also would suggest that the north american market is the least dynamic right now... not sure why you are restricting to one market and not sure why the United States is the obvious choice.

 

[zaberman1]

Steve,

I was interested in modeling the seasonality of the US market primarily because that is the market I am involved in. I ended up completing a rough forecast of the demand for PADI Certifications Worldwide based on the data they had on their website. I posted the conclusion on the Forecast Thread. If you want me to send you my analysis, just pm me your email address and I will send it right over. Forgive me for not contacting you directly, I emailed PADI, DEMA, Cline Group, NAUI, etc and decided it would be much easier to analyze the publicly available data. I was on a deadline as the analysis was for an Economic Forecasting course, however, I would enjoy looking at any data your organization has to offer! I am starting to get my feet wet (no pun intended) with applied analysis before going to graduate school.