You did not include a third possibility--the diver was well trained years before but has not dived for a long time and forgotten much of it.
More importantly, as someone who used to read the DAN reports avidly, I found that only a very small percentage of the very small percentage of dives ending in fatalities included a problem related to diver skills. The most common of these, as was verified by a joint PADI/DAN studies, involved rapid ascents following OOA emergencies. That is why PADI's most recent course changes focus on making sure that does not happen. The most common problems leading to fatalities are health-related. The next most common I would group under the general heading "diver decided to do something stupid and dangerous."