Concerned about POSSIBLE HURRICANE MATTHEW!!

[Bflem55]

I leave for Cozumel this Monday I dunno if that will happen though what do you think about this possible hurricane as of later today. Dosent look good in my eyes.

 

[lamont]

Assuming you're talking about Invest 95, which doesn't have a name yet (and its always possible that a fast developing low could form off Africa and turn into Matthew in a totally different location).

Most of the more reliable track models (GFS, GFDL) have I95 skimming Nicaragua where it'll likely get broken up and certainly wont intensify, and then taking it into Belize. Since yesterday the less reliable track models have started to converge on the reliable ones.

The danger to a Can/Coz/Cave trip to MX right now is not very great. Might be a bumpy flight due to outer bands assuming it develops a lot, nothing to change vacation plans over. Right now I doubt any diving would get blown out. That's about worst-case based on the forecasts. Most likely from the track, I doubt the greater Cancun area will notice this storm.

It should definitely be monitored, since sometimes storms wind up having a mind of their own, but track paths tend to be pretty good, while most forecasting uncertainty is over intensification and sometimes speed.

People diving Belize, on the other hand, should totally watch out for this one, its aimed right at Belize.

 

[lamont]

Actually, I'm not quite correct, I needed to read Master's commentary this AM:

On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

If it moves fast and has already hit Belize by Sunday, then it'll begin to dissipate as it wanders around the Yucatan landmass. Possibly bringing rain and thunderstorms to Coz (which is really pretty 'normal' weather, nothing to get excited about).

There are some GFS paths which have it stall out over water short of Belize and then turn it north to Cozumel, which would be an exceedingly dangerous path.

That's still low probability, at this point, though, and the GFS ensemble paths are really pointing to not being able to predict at all what its going to do after Sunday.

Keep watching it, I wouldn't make any plan changes until Sunday.

 

[ScubaTerp]

A better map to keep an eye on is the wind probability. Please remember that a hurricane is a massive storm, and that extreme winds can be found as much as 200 miles from the eye. You can find the tropical storm wind probability information at the National Hurricane Center.

This next map is also important. It shows the predicted path, but be careful. It's very important that you understand that the line is largely meaningless; the track area represents where the models predict the storm has a 66% chance of being during the time indicated.

The bottom line is that while the storm poses a threat, without knowing more there is no reason to cancel your plans just yet. You'll have a much better idea of what's going to happen come Sunday when the models predict the storm will start to turn. My recommendation is to call ahead and make sure you understand what will happen if you have to cancel or reschedule.

 

[Bflem55]

I do have trip insurance but the airport has to be closed for 24 hrs. Guess ill have to wait til Sunday this sucks

 

[lthomas132]

TS Matthew now. Heading for Belize or Yucatan. We're flying to Akumal tomorrow! Hmmmm... See: Tropical Storm MATTHEW

 

[Geofish Dive in Playa]

If you look at the satellite picture of the cloud cover Matthew does not look like it will become a hurricane, at least by time it hit the Yucatan. But of course I might just being naive and overly optomistic, but what is a dive shop owner supposed to do during hurricane season. Keep your fingers crossed.

 

[lamont]

A better map to keep an eye on is the wind probability. Please remember that a hurricane is a massive storm, and that extreme winds can be found as much as 200 miles from the eye. You can find the tropical storm wind probability information at the National Hurricane Center.

actually, i'd argue that to the untrained eye that the wind probability map is lousy.

that thing has so much wind smeared all over it that it looks like hurricane katrina is about to slam into the yucatan.

what you're looking at there though is about a 40% chance of tropical storm force winds at cozumel -- which is quite a blow but is not out of the ordinary experience of windstorms where anyone else lives (we have harder storms in november up here in the PNW every year). and its also got a 60% chance of nothing happening.

sometime around sunday/monday/tuesday it might be a rough flight going into cancun/cozumel. it also might not. its also not possible to tell which day is going to be a bad day to fly, you cant really make plans around it. the storm could zip over land get busted up, lotta rain, sunday make for a rough ride into cancun, and be nothing anyone hasn't flown through a million times before to get to vacation.

or it could stall out over water, spin up into a major hurricane, zip north and clobber cozumel. chances of that i'd say are unlikely but you can't rule them out.

still, the *most* *likely* outcome right now is rain and scattered t-storms with a chance of tropical storm-force winds. it bears watching to see if it gets worse, but its not worth changing plans around right now. you are mostly like to simply get the kind of weather that you normally get flying into the yucatan in the wet season -- there's t-storms down there all the time that nobody gives a name.

 

[DandyDon]

I do have trip insurance but the airport has to be closed for 24 hrs. Guess ill have to wait til Sunday this sucks

Odd stipulation, but anyway - Matt won't do anything for Coz more than throw some showers that way.

 

[ScubaTerp]

Looking at the forecasts now, it seems that Cozumel and Mexico will be fine. It's possible that Matthew could still do something screwy, but I wouldn't cancel any plans over it.