CDC MOVES ARUBA UP TO LEVEL 4 RISK CATEGORY

[kensuf]

I wonder what the United States would be categorized under their system? We tend to get average case daily new case rates lately well north of 200,000 people in a nation with 330 million people. 200,000 daily new cases/330 million population = 1 case in 1,650 people per day in the U.S. And that's using a case rate way under what's been reported a number of recent days.

But you said when > 500 cases per 100,000 residents are registered in the past 28 days.

So, it becomes 28 cases in 1,650 people per 28 days in the U.S. Now to convert to per 100,000 population.

28 cases/1,650 population = x cases/100,000 population.
x = 28x100,000/1,650 = 1,697 (rounded up).

So, if I did the math (which is not my strong point!) correctly, then the U.S. is Level 4, with a very high level of COVID-19 risk.

Should we flee?

^^ THIS!

Miami would be a Level 5 COVID hurricane.

Take a deep breath and look at the big picture.

 

[rhwestfall]

The thing to really take into consideration is the availability of treatment care in the event of need. Small islands have small populations and thus small healthcare resources. Even a low number of cases can stress resources. Will there be resources for you for emergencies (both COVID and non-COVID)?

 

[SaltyKSue]

We love Aruba but all of my info is pre-Covid. We had a great time with Aqua Windies for 8-9 days in 2019, I’d use them again. More people on the boat than anywhere we’ve ever booked (8-9 divers broken into 2 groups of 4 +a DM) but that was the situation most everywhere we found in Aruba... Clive was unavailable both times we went, really our only real Aruba bummer, he’s on our list for sure if we ever go back.

AW had several standout DM’s (and a really nice boat) but one time we hired Rudolpho (sp?) as a private guide from JADS to do some private shore diving down south and had multiple fantastic 90-95 minute dives with him, one of my favorite DM’s ever and really great dives. We have friends who love and dive Jeffery at Happy Divers all the time too but we haven’t dove with him personally. Lots of fun (wreck) dives to be had but I think doing “Airplane” for the first time as a night dive was my favorite. Tons of topside fun too - have a great time!

Thanks for this info. I may have to try to look up Rodolfo - especially now that 2 of you have mentioned him!

 

[CT Sean]

I wonder what the United States would be categorized under their system? We tend to get average case daily new case rates lately well north of 200,000 people in a nation with 330 million people. 200,000 daily new cases/330 million population = 1 case in 1,650 people per day in the U.S. And that's using a case rate way under what's been reported a number of recent days.

But you said when > 500 cases per 100,000 residents are registered in the past 28 days.

So, it becomes 28 cases in 1,650 people per 28 days in the U.S. Now to convert to per 100,000 population.

28 cases/1,650 population = x cases/100,000 population.
x = 28x100,000/1,650 = 1,697 (rounded up).

So, if I did the math (which is not my strong point!) correctly, then the U.S. is Level 4, with a very high level of COVID-19 risk.

Should we flee?

I'm not sure you did the math right. doing a simple version with 7 day new case average from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US is at 636,226 new cases per day - 7 day moving average which equals 192 per 100k a day (636,226 * 100,000 / 332 million)

Aruba is at 841 new cases per day - 7 day moving average which, due to the convenience of having 100,000 population, comes out to about 841 per 100,000

 

[tridacna]

Aruba is at 841 new cases per day - 7 day moving average which, due to the convenience of having 100,000 population, comes out to about 841 per 100,000

How many tourists are there at any one time in Aruba? Gotta add those to the 100,000. Just saying...

 

[CT Sean]

How many tourists are there at any one time in Aruba? Gotta add those to the 100,000. Just saying...

Aruba Covid-19 | Home has the daily cases broken out by resident and non-resident (20% of cases today and yesterday are non-resident), but I doubt the total volume of tourists is high enough to notably change the "per 100k" statistic

 

[tridacna]

Aruba Covid-19 | Home has the daily cases broken out by resident and non-resident (20% of cases today and yesterday are non-resident), but I doubt the total volume of tourists is high enough to notably change the "per 100k" statistic

In 2019, Aruba had over 2,000,000 tourists. Obviously less now. Still enough to make a difference.

 

[CT Sean]

In 2019, Aruba had over 2,000,000 tourists. Obviously less now. Still enough to make a difference.

If 2021/2022 tourist level were the same (and there's no way they are ) and tourists were perfectly distributed at 40k a week, that would still put Aruba's 7 day rolling average at 600 new cases a day per 100k. 600 is certainly better than 841 but neither qualify as good. Still significantly higher than the US as a whole (which is a pointless comparison) and still higher than some of the highest current COVID hotspots (such as Miami-Dade county that indicates 580 per 100k)