limeyx:
The depth-averaging numbers I (and rjack and probably lamont and many others) use are not just plucked from thin air.
No, but they are abstracted from another system that was not designed to support that abstraction. You can always fit a new model to any set of data points that are produced by a previous model, but when you do that you can only have confidence in the performance of the new model between the end points that you used from the old model and, in reality, only at the precise values that you used to fit the new model to, data points outside your set are anyone's guess and values between your data points are assumed to fall on a line that has been fit (in come manner) between the data points. That assumption is a natural one for humans to make and can get us into all kinds of trouble with statistics and potentially decompression.
limeyx:
Neither is the technique used to calculate the average as simple as some might suppose (although once you get used to using it, it's quite easy to use underwater).
It's been discussed and revealed, if not here then other places on the web, it requires little more than elementary school math.
limeyx:
The numbers come from looking at patterns in well-known deco algorithms and generalizing and adding in some conservatism so that within certain ranges of bottom times, at certain (average) depths with certain gases, you can indeed do this safely.
If you add in enough conservatism than any decompression model, no matter how bizarre, will work, to wit: make a dive to 60 feet on 36, stay there for 25 minutes, and then do a one minute stop every ten feet on the way up. Safe? Yes. Conservative? Yes. Efficient? Not really.
limeyx:
Can you throw away the tables/computer one day and do it the next? Of course not, it takes time to build up confidence.
You can only build confidence in the actual dives that you do. How is this any different from making a given dive a bunch of times and then not using tables or a computer, because you know the dive? Same thing. The problem comes in when you decide that the next dive is similar, but not exactly the same. If you have a large degree of conservatism built in, similar should be OK, but, then it is not efficient and why bother? If you do not have a large degree of conservatism built in, then you must carefully evaluate the risk level of your abstraction, something that you've got absolutely no information about. All you know is that similar dives (and you have a passing small sample size of those) were OK.
Now let me give you an example of the problem. There are no-D limits (well use Navy for the moment) that were developed first with a model, then with animal tests, then with human subject testing, then with field testing that continues to this day. From 40 to 200 they are respectively: 200, 100, 60, 50, 40, 30, 25, 20, 15, 10, 10, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5 mins. If we fit the 440 rule (440/depth)Squared, we get for NDLs: 121, 77, 54, 40, 30, 24, 19, 16, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5.
So we dive the shallow ones first, clearly we will have no problem all the way down to 120 feet, our dives will be much shorter, in many cases, then need be
but thats the price we pay for preferring to carry a calculator rather than a set of no-D limits. But at 130 were a minute over, chances are we wont be bent on that dive, but there's a chance, then were fine at 140, our biggest problem will be at 150, with a diminishing potential for disaster down to 190 where were OK again.
Now, Im not advocating the 440 rule, it clearly has problems that are easy to demonstrate, and knowing them we could use it, inefficiently, to 120 and above. Is your averaging technique a better fit? In my estimation
yes it is. How much better? I dont know. Are there any holes in it like the 150 hole in the 440 rule? I dont know, and thats what concerns me. And on the flip side, how efficient is it? We dont know.
limeyx:
Used properly, this technique applies easily for everything from recreational diving to 300 foot deco dives.
Thats what is not known. Can you prove that? Can you verify that through trials? No. Simulation and anecdotal is the best that you can do.
limeyx:
However, you have to be willing to understand it (and take the appropriate education) and to work with the techniques and find out to some extent how they apply to you personally as decompression can be very individual.
Now thats the insult that started the problem last time. Now I will just point it out and move on.
limeyx:
Is it safe for everyone? absolutely not, but it works well for a lot of us.
So how do we tell whom it will work for?
limeyx:
I have not used a computer since dive 40 or so, and have done over 170 dives since then in singles, doubles, recreational and decompression without needing to refer to a printed set of tables or a computer.
Thats great, and I hope that the next one is as good for you as the previous 130, but you have no real way of being sure of that, except a passing small sample and simulation and anecdote.