If e-commerce is the way of the future, and LDS's can't compete, then what's going to happen is groups of divers will simply kick in for a compressor and nitrox/trimix banks and go diving. I don't think people will stop diving, they'll just find other routes.
When I said I could pay for a compressor for $25/fill, that's about right. The compressor would be paid for in a few years, then you're looking at maintenance. I don't count my time, since this is a hobby. For us, we have a group of guys who kick in for a trimix/nitrox station. The same could be done for recreational dive groups and a compressor.
There isn't a LDS around here that has anything I need. They can't (or won't) carry any of the equipment I want, the gasses I want, or the instruction I want. I get everything online -- equipment and knowledge -- and go in with a group for trimix and argon. I'll stop in for air and nitrox fills once in a while, and chat with they guys.
There are solutions to this, and something will have to happen to make shops competitive. Manufacturers could start by stop requiring LDS's to sell $700 regs that cost $30 to make (speaking facisiously here
). I don't know what all the answers are, but something will have to give, I suspect.
Where there's a will, there's a way.
Mike