I got 1.4/1.6 from PADI/NAUI/NOAA and 1.2 from GUE.
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I use 1.3 as a max because not long after going thru my NAUI Tech Intro and Helitrox, we had an incident in the caves in Florida where a diver we all knew in my group at the time toxed at less than 1.4. Jeff was an experienced diver with dives on the Doria, many in Lake Erie and an accomplished cave diver. We do not know enough about deco to say for any certainty that 1.4 is safe...
PADI's safe zone is up to 1.4, anything over that is considered for contingency planning only.
According to an article by Bitterman in the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society Journal in 2004 (found here), CNS toxicity is not determined solely by the partial pressure of the inspired oxygen. Other factors, such as level of exertion, carbon dioxide build-up, the amount of light (ie, darker water = higher risk), age, gender, medications, and even Circadian rhythms may play a role in the risk of CNS oxygen toxicity.
With so many other potential factors in play, it is easier to understand why identical dive profiles might be safe one day, yet result in disaster on another day. It is also easier to see why it makes sense to dive conservatively.
"Conservative" may be defined differently depending upon those other factors mentioned. So, diving in colder, darker water might mean using 1.2 or 1.3 as the cutoff, whereas drift diving in the sunny, warm Caribbean might mean that 1.4 or even 1.5 could be okay for young, healthy individuals.
As you lower risk O2 toxicity risk, you increase your DCS risk, and vice versa. It's all a bit of a crapshoot with enough science and experience thrown in to make ourselves feel better about pretending to be fish!
Can anyone place somewhat credible risk values on these various conditions and options in the above range? That is, does a reduction in PPO2 of 0.1 change the risk from .01 to .005 or are we talking .0001 to .00005 or even .001 to .000001?
Its not quite that simple. Risk isnt linear.
Reducing from 2.0 to 1.9 for example has a far higher reduction in incidents than dropping from say 1.4 to 1.3.
As CNS tox (all we're worried about here) is a factor of partial pressure and exposure time you can look at the dive limit figures to get a feel for that.
The risks at 1.4 are very very small. Ive only heard 2nd hand about 2 possible incidents and on those as far as im aware it hasn't been proven it was that causing it.
At 1.3 i haven't heard of any incident.
At these low levels other factors such as increased CO2, medication and other factors begin to have more of an effect.
These 1.3 to 1.2 issues are mainly going to be of interest to long duration CCR divers who use a fixed setpoint for long periods of time.