Folks! That's 3 per month for the remainder of the year!
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PAGASA sees 21 more storms coming this year
By Leila Salaverria
Inquirer
UP TO 21 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the second half of the year, according to an official of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
But PAGASA weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz said Tuesday that not all of the 14 to 21 tropical cyclones predicted to hit the Philippines from June to December would actually pass through the country.
Nonetheless, Cruz said that all the cyclones that fell under PAR were identified to give authorities time to prepare.
He said more cyclones were expected to enter the PAR from June to September, but these were more likely to miss the Philippines because of the southwest monsoon, which pushes cyclones away from the country.
PAGASA expects two to three cyclones to enter the PAR in June and September, while three to four cyclones will enter the country’s area of responsibility in July and August, Cruz said.
“From June to September, most of the cyclones don’t hit us because of the southwest monsoon that pushes the storms toward Taiwan, Japan and China,” he told reporters Tuesday at a disaster preparedness conference of the Philippine National Red Cross.
But Cruz also warned that even though the cyclones were not likely to pass through the Philippines, they could aggravate the southwest monsoon and thus still bring more rains.
“We should also be careful during this period because the storms affect the southwest monsoon,” he said.
Cruz said cyclones that enter the PAR from June to August would usually affect northern Luzon, while those that come in September were expected to affect northern and Central Luzon.
On the other hand, Cruz said fewer cyclones were expected from October to December but these were more likely to pass through the Philippines because then the northeast monsoon would be prevailing over the southwest monsoon.
In October, PAGASA expects two or three cyclones to enter the PAR, while only one or two cyclones are expected in November and December, Cruz said
“There would just be one or two typhoons then but their chances of hitting the Philippines are higher because of the northeast monsoon,” Cruz said.
He said this was an important fact for disaster relief agencies to know because it could mean that there might be more damage brought by the yearend storms.
Cruz said the cyclones that would pass through the Philippines in the last quarter of the year could possibly hit Luzon and the Visayas. He added that Mindanao was hardly hit by storms because of its location near the equator, where storms rarely form.
Meanwhile, Cruz said the El Niño and La Niña were not expected to make their presence felt in the Philippines until the end of the year.
“There is no El Niño and La Niña expected to prevail in the next three to six months,” Cruz said. “There is no abnormality in the Pacific Ocean that could result in extreme climatic events.”
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