Point taken Matthew - but last weekend was a Cat 4 Typhoon, not just monsoon. Very unpredictable...
It seems you missed the weather agencies' repeated weather pronouncements and explanations on T.V., radio and the internet (we were monitoring them the entire week, like we always do when planning a dive trip), that the typhoon was too far north to DIRECTLY affect southern Luzon and Metro Manila, however it "enhances" or "pulls" the southwest monsoon (habagat), so there will be "widespread rains" and the "coastal waters (including Manila Bay, which you can observe from your condo
) will be moderate to rough." It was not even a prediction. We have detailed information available, more than we actually need, a blow by blow account. We KNEW what was happening. Neither was it an unusual phenomenon, but a very common occurence during this time of the year.
Some samples from typhoon2000.com archives:
for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [1:20 AM PhT]
for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [6:49 PM PhT]
for Sunday, 28 August 2011 [7:34 AM PhT]
"
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km WSW of Sabtang Is., Batanes
Distance 2: 72 km WSW of Mahatao, Batanes
Distance 3: 79 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 91 km SW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 101 km NW of Babuyan Island
Distance 6: 102 km NNW of Calayan Island
Distance 7: 204 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 234 km NNE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 283 km South of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 10: 286 km SSE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 11: 424 km South of Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Now [until 2AM Mon]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 280 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 28"
"EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation is having a hard time to reintensify after it interacting with the mountains of Northern Cagayan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE -
Just west of the Batanes Group. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye
(click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting & moving across
Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands.
Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall
(click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across
Ilocos Norte, Calayan Island, Apayao & Northern Cagayan.
Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across
the rest of Northern Luzon.
Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands
(click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from
5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the
outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of
210 to 280 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA).
(click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible
9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of
Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, & Southern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from
Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Luzon.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NW VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas."
So you see, we KNEW exactly where the typhoon was, we KNEW where the eyewall was (whatever that means
), we KNEW the extent of its inner and outer rainbands. But more important for us, we KNEW that the Habagat was affecting M.Mla and Southern Luzon, we KNEW that Anilao waters will be rough, but we decided to proceed with the trip KNOWING that we have that place in mainit that faces away from the southwest, from where we can stage our dives, a decision we had made many times in the past. And upon arrival in Anilao - no surprises - we were greeted with a very familiar picture of Anilao during the habagat - mostly sunny, some rain, and waves slamming the shore, but no sign of the typhoon whatsoever (I later learned from Koya Caloy / clgsamson that they were even able to board a bangka with some extra effort at Aquaventure, make the crossing, and dive at Bahura). So we loaded tanks and proceeded to mainit, timed the slack perfectly, and had 2 very nice, relaxed dives. One thing I failed to predict though was the visibility at mainit at around 5 pm on Sunday which was surprisingly very good
.
I neither intend to argue nor to question your judgement Andy, I just want to stress that we do take our safety seriously, and are always open to any and all inputs from various sources so that we can make intelligent decisions.
