Anilao water conditions?

[mlsantos]

the storm signal was in place... for the north eastern coast of the philippines.. batangas was not even mentioned...

Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.)
90 km South Southwest of Basco, Batanes
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center and Gustiness of up to 170 kph
Here are the Areas having Storm Signal:
Signal Number 3:
Batanes Group of Island
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan Group of Island
Calayan Group of Island
Signal Number 2:
Ilocos Norte
Abra
Apayao
Kalinga
Rest of Cagayan
Signal Number 1:
Ilocos Sur
La Union
Mountain Province
Benguet
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Isabela
Northern Aurora

i never saw batangas in any of the reports... and i track weather through bouyweather.com...
so diving went on as usual or to the best that it could've....

offcourse it is ok to cancel dives if the weather calls for it and i have done it many times on the different liveaboards i've worked on and these people prepaid for their dives but safety was my call... but in the case of anilao... sometimes it looks imposible from mabini... very much possible from mainit...

 

[DevonDiver]

Puerto Galera Yacht Club send email warnings of storms. It's worth signing up for their mailing list (on that page)

Metro Manila wasn't given a storm warning either, but I could see the waves in Manila Bay from my condo balcony in Makati. I heard there was even a fatality in Manila Bay...

 

[passionatediver]

Im wondering if the weather would still be bad over the weekend in Anilao... If its gonna be stormy again, it means we have to cancel the dive this coming weekend (again...)... that is just so bad...

 

[jigo]

Hi MLSantos. would be interested in the rates you charge. maybe you can post it in the trips and marketplace subsection of PPD.

 

[paolov]

there are websites that could help you plan your dive days before even if there are weather disturbances.

take for instance what Matthew mentioned. generally the areas mentioned would be accessible even in habagat periods.

Taking into consideration what Devon diver mentioned cat 4 , this would entail the conditions "to" and "from" the dive site.

it all depends on what affects the dive.

habagat = winds; if the area is protected from the habagat winds then the area is diveable. however the "to" and "from" the dive site is another matter.

monsoon rains = water visibility. if the dive site is prone to runoff from rain water then you would have poor vis.

typhoon. now diving during a typhoon is not recommended for divers with little experiences in varied diving conditions.

diving during typhoons is possible as long as :
1. access is safe for the boat at all times even when moored. if not cancel

2. the site is protected from the typhoon angle.
as mentioned above on several websites , there are several websites that may aid you in the planning of the dive days before the planned date even if there is a typhoon brewing. check the projections of path and the angle on the day of the dive.

generally typhoons that originate from the pacific would have a northward trajectory.

assumptions;

1. dive site batangas (IF THE AREA is generally protected from habagat winds, very few sites in batangas with this condition)
2. typhoon coming from the pacific, general area of origin Palau
3. the rotation generally would be counter clockwise
4. if on the dive day, the typhoon is south of batangas and would still be south of batangas after the dive trip then, GO DIVE !
5. however if on the day of the dive typhoon center is near the level of batangas(coming from the south) then forget it. even if the site is protected.
6. if on the day of the dive the typhoon is north of batangas and protected from habat 50% chance diveable
7. however if the day of the dive the typhoon nears batangas and would be north of batangas in a few hours,then better cancel your dive as the winds would change and the angle of the gusts would change drastically (different from when you started the dive and the few minutes you end the dive) this is where the waves would change.
8. if the day of the dive the typhoon is way up north then , bahala na! only for PASAWAY !!!! hehehehehe




the most important thing to check is the angle of the wind, before and after the dive trip.

and do not forget the visibility of the area with rains.


again this type of dives are not recommended for the less experienced divers. those with three years and 300 dives would be the minimum. three years would give them at least some idea on the cyclic weather conditions. 300 dives would generally mean they dive almost half of the weekends in a year.

see after this post, Matthew would provide some of the links that would give information that helps plan the dive even when there are weather disturbances.

NOTHING BEATS EXPERIENCES OF THE LOLOS here is SB-BP ! thats ScubaBoard-Barangay PASAWAY!!!

 

[Matthew]

Point taken Matthew - but last weekend was a Cat 4 Typhoon, not just monsoon. Very unpredictable...

It seems you missed the weather agencies' repeated weather pronouncements and explanations on T.V., radio and the internet (we were monitoring them the entire week, like we always do when planning a dive trip), that the typhoon was too far north to DIRECTLY affect southern Luzon and Metro Manila, however it "enhances" or "pulls" the southwest monsoon (habagat), so there will be "widespread rains" and the "coastal waters (including Manila Bay, which you can observe from your condo ) will be moderate to rough." It was not even a prediction. We have detailed information available, more than we actually need, a blow by blow account. We KNEW what was happening. Neither was it an unusual phenomenon, but a very common occurence during this time of the year.

Some samples from typhoon2000.com archives:

for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [1:20 AM PhT]
for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [6:49 PM PhT]
for Sunday, 28 August 2011 [7:34 AM PhT]

"CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km WSW of Sabtang Is., Batanes
Distance 2: 72 km WSW of Mahatao, Batanes
Distance 3: 79 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 91 km SW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 101 km NW of Babuyan Island
Distance 6: 102 km NNW of Calayan Island
Distance 7: 204 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 234 km NNE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 283 km South of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 10: 286 km SSE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 11: 424 km South of Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Now [until 2AM Mon]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 280 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 28"

"EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation is having a hard time to reintensify after it interacting with the mountains of Northern Cagayan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Just west of the Batanes Group. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting & moving across Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ilocos Norte, Calayan Island, Apayao & Northern Cagayan. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Northern Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 280 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, & Southern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).


CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NW VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas."



So you see, we KNEW exactly where the typhoon was, we KNEW where the eyewall was (whatever that means ), we KNEW the extent of its inner and outer rainbands. But more important for us, we KNEW that the Habagat was affecting M.Mla and Southern Luzon, we KNEW that Anilao waters will be rough, but we decided to proceed with the trip KNOWING that we have that place in mainit that faces away from the southwest, from where we can stage our dives, a decision we had made many times in the past. And upon arrival in Anilao - no surprises - we were greeted with a very familiar picture of Anilao during the habagat - mostly sunny, some rain, and waves slamming the shore, but no sign of the typhoon whatsoever (I later learned from Koya Caloy / clgsamson that they were even able to board a bangka with some extra effort at Aquaventure, make the crossing, and dive at Bahura). So we loaded tanks and proceeded to mainit, timed the slack perfectly, and had 2 very nice, relaxed dives. One thing I failed to predict though was the visibility at mainit at around 5 pm on Sunday which was surprisingly very good .

I neither intend to argue nor to question your judgement Andy, I just want to stress that we do take our safety seriously, and are always open to any and all inputs from various sources so that we can make intelligent decisions.

 

[DevonDiver]

What do I know... I only worked in national Hurricane Disaster Planning at a governmental level for several countries.

But sure.. head on out during a Cat 4, if you're confident in guaranteeing safety for your customers. I recommend my customers to not even travel during those times... I can afford to put safety before $.

I bet you predicted what would happen with Ondoy also... shame on you for keeping that knowledge private.

I didn't miss any of the announcements about the typhoon... what I said was "typhoons are unpredicatable"... and yes, even for an agency as 'well-regarded' and highly funded as Pagasa. lol

Perhaps you'd care to explain the impact of a 4.5m storm surge on potential water conditions, tides, currents, flows - you'd brief fellow divers on that, right?

Perhaps you'd care to explain the margin of predictable error associated with a given report - to the nearest 100km?

My point is; within a certain radius, the movement, intensity and impacts of a typhoon are entirely unpredictable. When you look at a weather prediction, it is only a 'best guess'.... not a statement of fact. There's a whole list of potential issues that can occur that won't be mentioned in a forecast - and many of those can occur with little or no warning - outside of previously guessed areas of impact.

To look at a wind/wave forecast can be overly simplistic. Knowing that X,Y or Z location may be protected from winds/waves is just one single factor that needs to be accounted for. To attempt a business 'scoop' based upon advertising a "safe" diving location during a near-by typhoon is quite cynical IMHO.

 

[clgsamson]

Matt - we made the crossing twice that weekend. The outer islands would simply appear and disappear during the crossing. Visibility, poor topside, like 20-30ft under.

Lolo Pao- Agree with the dive experience level. But Chip would have still dive that stormy weekend even if he had only 10 dives to his credit. He is the original Batman. His unofficial motto is Anytime, Anywhere, Any depth.

 

[Matthew]

What do I know... I only worked in national Hurricane Disaster Planning at a governmental level for several countries.

Very impressive. You really are an expert on everything.

But sure.. head on out during a Cat 4, if you're confident in guaranteeing safety for your customers. I recommend my customers to not even travel during those times... I can afford to put safety before $.

FYI I have an office job. Diving is my biggest passion, it is not my source of livelihood. As to heading out during a Cat 4, if I were in one of those places mentioned in the typhoon warnings last weekend, I would not have even peeked out of my windows, being the sissy that I am, unlike Caloy and Chip and Paolo, those guys are crazy.

I bet you predicted what would happen with Ondoy also... shame on you for keeping that knowledge private.

No I did not predict anything. I cancelled a cleanup trip to Divers Sanctuary in spite of the free dives, food, drinks and entertainment because of the READILY AVAILABLE information that Ondoy, although not very strong (I dont remember the category) will be passing very close to Manila.

I didn't miss any of the announcements about the typhoon... what I said was "typhoons are unpredicatable"... and yes, even for an agency as 'well-regarded' and highly funded as Pagasa. lol

So you are saying that all those announcements were wrong? What you said was "but last weekend was a Cat 4 Typhoon, not just monsoon. Very unpredictable..." All the announcements said otherwise. Take note, those were ACTUAL SITUATIONAL REPORTS and not predictions. And we were actually there in Anilao. Absolutely no sign of a Cat 4, only habagat. But of course you know better, having worked in National Hurricane Disaster Planning at a governmental level for several countries. You can tell that what appears to us as the familiar southwest winds are actually a Cat 4 Typhoon waiting to kill us stupid divers. Can you teach us your technique? Would it be better if we relied on emails from the PG Yacht Club rather than the announcements of typhoon2000.com or pagasa-dost, which were all wrong? Would we be better able to assess Anilao divability by looking out a condo unit and watching the waves on Manila Bay, rather than calling our Anilao contacts? Does the fatality in Manila Bay give is a clue of some hidden danger in Mainit point?

Perhaps you'd care to explain the impact of a 4.5m storm surge on potential water conditions, tides, currents, flows - you'd brief fellow divers on that, right?

Perhaps you'd care to explain the margin of predictable error associated with a given report - to the nearest 100km?

No, I cant. I'll ask the questions, you explain - you're the expert, right? This - COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, & Southern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge - Of course you know that these places are several hundreds of kilometers away. Now I do understand about margins of error. Can you give an approximate number? Can the error be great enough such that the risks attributed to these areas may possibly affect Anilao? If so, us stupid divers would be the least of problems. Then the government is being very irresponsible for not evacuating, not even warning, the numerous residents on the Anilao coast. So tell us - if it is at all possible - how big is the risk? Unless you can provide an approximate number, I would just trust the report and assume the risk as the same as me being attacked by a previously unknown specie of man eating giant octopus.

My point is; within a certain radius, the movement, intensity and impacts of a typhoon are entirely unpredictable. When you look at a weather prediction, it is only a 'best guess'.... not a statement of fact. There's a whole list of potential issues that can occur that won't be mentioned in a forecast - and many of those can occur with little or no warning - outside of previously guessed areas of impact.

Again you have to give that "certain radius" a number. Totally unpredictable? How about these:

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km WSW of Sabtang Is., Batanes
Distance 2: 72 km WSW of Mahatao, Batanes
Distance 3: 79 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 91 km SW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 101 km NW of Babuyan Island
Distance 6: 102 km NNW of Calayan Island
Distance 7: 204 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 234 km NNE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 283 km South of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 10: 286 km SSE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 11: 424 km South of Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan

Are you saying these are mere guesses? Again what is the margin of error? When it says the the eye is at 20.2º N Lat 121.3º E Lon how far can it actually be from those bearings? 100 km? 200? 500? Can the typhoon suddenly turn south towards batangas, increase speed 100x and cause havoc there without our weather agencies noticing, all in the 1 1/2 hour it takes for us to plan, gear up and do 1 dive?

To look at a wind/wave forecast can be overly simplistic. Knowing that X,Y or Z location may be protected from winds/waves is just one single factor that needs to be accounted for.

Yes if we are talking of a typhoon. But I was talking only of monsoon winds, in which case I choose to be simplistic. The Mabini side was rough, the mainit side was calm. By October until June the opposite will be true, all divers will be staying on the Mabini side and mlsantos will have few customers. If a typhoon affects Anilao, I would make it even simpler for me. I will not dive.

To attempt a business 'scoop' based upon advertising a "safe" diving location during a near-by typhoon is quite cynical IMHO.

Again define nearby. 100 km? 200? 500? And when were you not cynical of anything other than your own ideas?

 

[paolov]

unlike Caloy and Chip and Paolo, those guys are crazy.

:sos: :goingdown: :shortbus:

Lolo Kaps, where is Chip nowadays?