Future aka New Normal

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I know.
The price of airplane tickets is only vaguely related to fuel or other operational costs, it is usually more a political decision. No wonder on what's happened.
I am not in the position of evaluating if making difficult to fly, increasing the prices 3 times or more, is a good move or a bad one.
On the other side, the air companies are struggling and risking to go bankrupt. Increasing the tickets can give them some oxygen.
The alternative is that the government subsidises them directly, as our government did with Alitalia, giving them 5 billions euro of public money for keeping it alive. Personally, I had much preferred to triplicate the tickets, and not use MY public money for keeping alive a private company which was already with both feet in the grave before the COVID-19 crisis.
As you see, there is no simple, correct recipe capable of saving both the goat and the cabbage...

Ciao Angelo.

It's pretty simple, an airline has to have passengers to stay in business, no need to overthink otherwise

Since you brought up Italy, tell me, would you be happy paying a month's wages for a return domestic flight only 1-2 hours long journey? Tell me, would the Italian people be happy paying a month's wages for that same journey?

The majority of domestic flights in Australia were cheaper than domestic flights in Indonesia at that recently passed period. If prices had tripled here permanently, I guarantee you that people couldn't afford it, and 10's if not 100's of thousands of people would be out of work as a result

Certainly it reduced the number of passengers, slowing down the spreading of the virus.

Prices in Indonesia had already started returning or had already returned to previous lower prices before covid, after large backlash. So flights were full again more regularly at lead up to covid

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I know.
The price of airplane tickets is only vaguely related to fuel or other operational costs, it is usually more a political decision. No wonder on what's happened.
I am not in the position of evaluating if making difficult to fly, increasing the prices 3 times or more, is a good move or a bad one. Certainly it reduced the number of passengers, slowing down the spreading of the virus.
On the other side, the air companies are struggling and risking to go bankrupt. Increasing the tickets can give them some oxygen.
The alternative is that the government subsidises them directly, as our government did with Alitalia, giving them 5 billions euro of public money for keeping it alive. Personally, I had much preferred to triplicate the tickets, and not use MY public money for keeping alive a private company which was already with both feet in the grave before the COVID-19 crisis.
As you see, there is no simple, correct recipe capable of saving both the goat and the cabbage...

Pilots are calling for people to 'buy plane tickets like you bought toilet paper' and book flights for after the coronavirus lockdown

This article pretty much simply sums up about current optimism from pilots about air travel. And the very basic business formula, which is if there's no passengers then they don't have work

I hope you overcome your fears of flying in post-covid times Angelo, things are looking up

 

[Angelo Farina]

Ciao Angelo.

It's pretty simple, an airline has to have passengers to stay in business, no need to overthink otherwise

Since you brought up Italy, tell me, would you be happy paying a month's wages for a return domestic flight only 1-2 hours long journey? Tell me, would the Italian people be happy paying a month's wages for that same journey?

The majority of domestic flights in Australia were cheaper than domestic flights in Indonesia at that recently passed period. If prices had tripled here permanently, I guarantee you that people couldn't afford it, and 10's if not 100's of thousands of people would be out of work as a result



Prices in Indonesia had already started returning or had already returned to previous lower prices before covid, after large backlash. So flights were full again more regularly at lead up to covid

No one is happy to pay a month-wage for a flight to Sicily or Sardinia. But that was the normal thing when I was young. Then low-cost companies appeared, and we get used to be able to fly to London for less than 20 euros. Still flying to Sardinia (which is a much shorter flight) was impossible below 200 euros, and in summer it was around 400. Not a monthly wage, but a lot more than flying to London.
I did never find an explanation on how this was possible.
On the other side, for the last three months we could simply no fly at all. It was not a matter of money, it was forbidden. Stop.
I think that it is better to still be able to fly, at a very high price, than to see all the airplanes parked in the airport, and no one flying, for any reason, as we had been for 3 months...
Historically, flying was not cheap. Most people were spending the whole life without ever taking a plane, because they could not afford this. Just in last 25 years flying became cheap and possible for everyone. I was happy of this, of course, as everyone else. And I travelled a lot, because now it was feasible.
What I suppose is that we are entering a period in which it will become again difficult and expensive, and this will be all around the world... And there are no simple recipes for solving this problem.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

No one is happy to pay a month-wage for a flight to Sicily or Sardinia. But that was the normal thing when I was young. Then low-cost companies appeared, and we get used to be able to fly to London for less than 20 euros. Still flying to Sardinia (which is a much shorter flight) was impossible below 200 euros, and in summer it was around 400. Not a monthly wage, but a lot more than flying to London.
I did never find an explanation on how this was possible.
On the other side, for three months we could simply no fly at all. It was not a matter of money, it was forbidden. Stop.
I think that it is better to still be able to fly, at a very high price, than to see all the airplanes parked in the airport, and no one flying, for any reason, as we had been for 3 months...
Historically, flying was not cheap. Most people were spending the whole life without ever taking a plane, because they could not afford this. Just in last 25 years flying became cheap and possible for everyone. I was happy of this, of course, as everyone else. And I travelled a lot, because now it was feasible.
What I suppose is that we are entering a period in which it will become again difficult and expensive, and this will be all around the world... And there are no simple recipes for solving this problem.

So you think flights will be expensive globally after covid?

In my opinion it will be opposite. Airlines will be doing everything they can to fill their planes to capacity again. They can't afford to lose passengers, simple as that

 

[Angelo Farina]

I hope you overcome your fears of flying in post-covid times Angelo, things are looking up

I have no fear of flying, never had. But if the planes are grounded, how can I fly? If the companies go bankrupt, how they can propose flights at affordable costs?
I am prepared to the fact that, in the "new normal" world, flying will not be so simple and so cheap, with a large number of flights to choose.
There will be only few, very expensive. As in the seventies. And for entering in many countries, you will need a visa or other paperworks...
I fear that the nice times where I could take a flight for everywhere, without concerns of costs or bureaucracy, are finished. It is sad, but what can I do for this?
The world is changing, it is out of my control...

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

So you think flights will be expensive globally after covid?

In my opinion it will be opposite. Airlines will be doing everything they can to fill their planes to capacity again. They can't afford to lose passengers, simple as that

...but I'll guess I'll find out very soon about domestic flights in Indonesia

 

[Angelo Farina]

So you think flights will be expensive globally after covid?

In my opinion it will be opposite. Airlines will be doing everything they can to fill their planes to capacity again. They can't afford to lose passengers, simple as that

What follows is juts my forecast, and no one knows the future.
I suppose that solid carrier companies can afford to work at low prices for a while, for getting passengers back- Almost-bankrupt companies (and there are many, Alitalia is the first) cannot practice such a policy. So, in a competitive market, they will disappear. In a couple of years, only the really strong ones will survive. The total number of available flights will reduce to 1/4 of pre-COVID, competition will disappear, and the same strong companies who survived will be in the position of raising the prices, as there will be no more alternatives.
So we will end up with much less flights, at higher prices.
I agree that there will be some good bargain when everything reopens, but it cannot last a long...

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I have no fear of flying, never had. But if the planes are grounded, how can I fly? If the companies go bankrupt, how they can propose flights at affordable costs?
I am prepared to the fact that, in the "new normal" world, flying will not be so simple and so cheap, with a large number of flights to choose.
There will be only few, very expensive. As in the seventies. And for entering in many countries, you will need a visa or other paperworks...
I fear that the nice times where I could take a flight for everywhere, without concerns of costs or bureaucracy, are finished. It is sad, but what can I do for this?
The world is changing, it is out of my control...

Sorry, I thought you still very frightened of the deadliness of covid as you believe it would of killed several millions of people, and flying would be out of your equation for years like some of the other scubaboard members

 

[Angelo Farina]

Sorry, I thought you still very frightened of the deadliness of covid as you believe it would of killed several millions of people, and flying would be out of your equation for years like some of the other scubaboard members

I am confident that with all the measures being taken worldwide it will be possible to deal with Covid-19 paying a toll of less than one million deaths, which worldwide is a small number compared with the world population.
What I fear (and I am not happy of this) is a change of behaviour. A change of priorities in the choices people make.
Travelling was one of the best thing of my life, but I fear that it will not be that easy and that cheap for a number of years. I suppose I will be too old when the world will really come back from this crisis.
I know that some people are optimistic, they think that in 2021 everything will be back to normal. I really hope that they are right.
Really.
But what I see everyday, instead, are people and companies (and public administrations, as my University) doing plans for the next TEN years where travelling will be very hard to do, and other ways of working and having holidays will become the new normality. I am not happy of this, but it is happening. I am fighting against this, but with little success.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I am confident that with all the measures being taken worldwide it will be possible to deal with Covid-19 paying a toll of less than one million deaths, which worldwide is a small number compared with the world population.
What I fear (and I am not happy of this) is a change of behaviour. A change of priorities in the choices people make.
Travelling was one of the best thing of my life, but I fear that it will not be that easy and that cheap for a number of years. I suppose I will be too old when the world will really come back from this crisis.
I know that some people are optimistic, they think that in 2021 everything will be back to normal. I really hope that they are right.
Really.
But what I see everyday, instead, are people and companies (and public administrations, as my University) doing plans for the next TEN years where travelling will be very hard to do, and other ways of working and having holidays will become the new normality. I am not happy of this, but it is happening. I am fighting against this, but with little success.

A little suggestion, I by no means intend to offend you, but... maybe have a glass of Italian Red, kick back relax, & dream/imagine of how things could be normal again very soon...it's actually very refreshing for the mind