When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[Schwob]

Answering to the thread title only of sorts:
On most days from about 7 am to 11 pm...

 

[tridacna]

Exactly. This forced a complete shutdown of everything, in the whole Italy.
It is now entirely forbidden to exit, if not authorized for very serious reasons (people working in healthcare of food supply chain, or for going to the hospital).In any case, it is forbidden to exit from your municipality, for any reason. It is even forbidden to walk around your house, maximum distance allowed is 200m.

How do you shop for groceries?

 

[Angelo Farina]

Most people are receiving food at home, ordering by phone or online. It is possible to sign an autocertification in which you write that you have not anymore food at home, hence you must go to the food shop for purchasing food. there are tails on front, as people need to stay 2m apart, wearing masks and gloves, and they are admitted inside the shop one by one, and measuring their temperature.
You can wait 2-3 hours before entering the shop.
here people waiting to enter in a supermarket:

The only shops open are food, tobacco and pharmacies. All other shops, including bars and restaurants, are closed. Many restaurants organized for home delivery, which apparently is still permitted.
All factories are closed, except those making food or medicines.

 

[CWK]

Outbreaks are going to continue to occur in countries that do not have the capacity to do testing, Egypt Turkey Indonesia Philippines Thailand Malaysia and many others.

Malaysia currently has the capacity to test 6,000 samples daily and will be increasing this to 16,000 samples daily. You would have to obtain per capita figures to compare between countries.

FWIW, Malaysia is a country that has a medical tourism industry, where nationals of other countries, such as Japan, visit Malaysia for medical procedures. So although it is a 3rd world country, it has a developed medical sector.

 

[Centrals]

Malaysia currently has the capacity to test 6,000 samples daily and will be increasing this to 16,000 samples daily. You would have to obtain per capita figures to compare between countries.

FWIW, Malaysia is a country that has a medical tourism industry, where nationals of other countries, such as Japan, visit Malaysia for medical procedures. So although it is a 3rd world country, it has a developed medical sector.

Malaysia and Thailand have medical tourism industry for those who can afford.
Both countries suffered badly at the hand of COVID-19 and more of less lock up now.

 

[CWK]

Malaysia and Thailand have medical tourism industry for those who can afford.
Both countries suffered badly at the hand of COVID-19 and more of less lock up now.

Tourism in any form is generally limited to those who can afford.

Malaysia is indeed suffering. It is in the second week of a 4 week lock down scheduled to end on 14th April. The suffering is economic and is felt by large numbers of people whose earnings have been impacted by covid-19 related measures - lock down and travel bans.

In relation to the medical situation. Malaysia currently has the capacity for 6,000 tests daily and is increasing this to 16,000 tests per day. As of 25th March, there were 1,796 confirm infections (in total since 25th January), of which 199 have recovered and have been discharged from hospital. The testing capacity appears adequate given the level of infection in the country. Malaysia has a parallel system of public and private medical facilities. Testing is free at public hospitals, and you can arrange to be tested in the comfort of your own home by a private medical service for less than USD200.

Malaysia manufactures about 60% of the worlds supply of mmedical gloves, so there should be no shortage of this. Malaysia also manufactures surgical masks and PPE. Although there have been reports of PPE shortages, I think it is a matter of getting the supply chain organised as opposed to an inability to source supply.

The health minister reports that there are currently 926 units of ventilators in ICUs, with an additional 450 in private hospitals. In addition to this, the ministry of health has an additional 800 ventilators on order (as of 16th March). Whilst these numbers may be small, they must be viewed in light of total infections of 1,796 in total to date. As of 25th March, the director general of health said that there were 45 cases of covid-19 being treated in ICU, and of this number 34 patients needed ventilator support. Based on these reported numbers, there is significant headroom for the treatment of increased covid-19 infections.

JP Morgan believes that covid-19 will peak at some 6,300 infections sometime in April. See: JP Morgan: Covid-19 likely to peak next month in Malaysia

Hopefully Malaysia will have sufficient medical resources even at the peak. This is in stark contrast to countries in the first world where there is insufficient medical resources.

 

[Blackcrusader]

Taiwan also has a strong medical tourism industry but since no non residents are allowed in since 18 March then there are certainly less people doing this. Those already here were given a 30 day addition to stay on whatever visa they had.

 

[nippurmagnum]

Exactly. This forced a complete shutdown of everything, in the whole Italy.
It is now entirely forbidden to exit, if not authorized for very serious reasons (people working in healthcare of food supply chain, or for going to the hospital).
In any case, it is forbidden to exit from your municipality, for any reason. It is even forbidden to walk around your house, maximum distance allowed is 200m.
The fine has juts raised to 3000 eur for transgressors. And we already more transgressors than infected people...
I am not exiting from my home since three weeks now, except crossing the road for purchasing milk at the automatic distributor, once every 3 days.
It is the only way to slow down significantly the epidemic. If people continue going with their cars around, running in parks or on the beach, inevitably they will meet someone and start talking and transmit the virus.
It is harsh, but there is not other way to reverse this bad situation. We must stay closed at home...

Angelo, I'd be curious for your take on this paper, published back in November:

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect

It suggests that in 2016/17, there were 25,000 fatalities in Italy due to the regular flu (it was a bad flu year).

At the moment, Italy has had fewer than 10,000 deaths due to COVID. There are reports that Italy is nearing the top of its steep COVID fatalities curve. If that is true, one might expect the total number of fatalities in Italy to be under 25,000 before the pandemic subsides in your country. In other words, the number of fatalities due to COVID would be consistent with a bad year of the regular flu.

 

[W W Meixner]

The Governor of Florida seems to be resisting shutting down all "non-essential" businesses. I personally think that's a good thing (and I am not of the Governor's political party). But in California, they've gone to the other extreme. No shore diving there either. I'm not sure that snorkeling is allowed in California either.

NM...

Not to be critical of your thoughts...or those of your Governor...I really don't know of any ''non-essential'' businesses that any of us need to be visiting right now...

We can't be staying home and self isolating and be wandering around our favorite non-essential shopping haunts at the same time...

I'm in annual need of sensors and absorbent for my rebreather...neither are essential...and both will be in full supply...whenever...

My wife is a cancer survivor and has a compromised immune system...and nothing...nothing...non essential is that important...that I'd risk jeopardizing her health over...

New York is currently running out of morgue space...what non-essential services is it that you think you need ...that are so important...

W.M...

 

[nippurmagnum]

NM...

Not to be critical of your thoughts...or those of your Governor...I really don't know of any ''non-essential'' businesses that any of us need to be visiting right now...

We can't be staying home and self isolating and be wandering around our favorite non-essential shopping haunts at the same time...

I'm in annual need of sensors and absorbent for my rebreather...neither are essential...and both will be in full supply...whenever...

My wife is a cancer survivor and has a compromised immune system...and nothing...nothing...non essential is that important...that I'd risk jeopardizing her health over...

New York is currently running out of morgue space...what non-essential services is it that you think you need ...that are so important...

W.M...

To clarify a few points:

I don't live in Florida, and I am a lifelong member of the other political party, so he's in no sense "my" Governor.

I also think spring breakers being shown on cable news are drunken mindless idiots.

However, we shouldn't be so quick to label businesses "non-essential." Any businesses are essential to people who depend upon them for their livelihoods, and among other things will lose their health insurance if they can't work. That includes dive shops. I have no stake in the dive business, other than as a consumer, but I personally don't see why dive shops should shut down, except in areas that are experiencing a sharp rise in COVID cases.

I recognize that coronavirus is more serious than the regular flu, but it is by no means the only health threat for the very elderly or for people who are immunocompromised. It is, however, the only health threat for which we are taking the very drastic action of shutting down the global economy.

I get the need to flatten the curve, and I have no problem teleworking rather than going to my office of 2,000 people, because my job allows me to do that. I've only left my apartment three times over the last two weeks, to buy groceries or go to the hardware store. I also have no problem with avoiding handshaking, using my elbow to press elevator buttons, and sneezing into my sleeve.

However, I don't think we should stop diving, or going to the beach, or to national parks, or playing tennis, or for that matter, stopping off for an ice cream, provided we keep appropriate physical distance and take common sense precautions. Because the idea of flattening the curve is to spread out the number of cases over time -- not to reduce their overall number or to stop the virus altogether, which is not possible anymore (because it really is a pandemic, and we have no natural immunity).

I imagine that I would probably feel very different if I was living with someone who was immunosuppressed. I do live across the street from my 81-year-old mom, who stubbornly insists on going to supermarkets to shop for food, even though I offer to do that for her. She is in generally good health, but she's still 81 years old, and I do worry about her. But I don't think we should set policy based on emotion. And right now we are in the grips of a massive emotional reaction. So I for one would not hesitate to go shore diving right now. And while I steer clear of cattle boats generally, I wouldn't hesitate to go diving in a six pack.