My experience is that its definitely related to the season and the number of dives a day, most of the year a 3mm shorty is fine but sometimes more is needed.
I'm a big guy that doesn't wear a wetsuit for much of the year (God gave quite a bit of insulation), but last year during Christmas/New Years I was working as a dive guide doing 3-4 dives/day. When the water dropped to 24 degrees it was cold enough for me to put on a full 3mm. Then it dropped to 22 degrees around New Years and even with a hood I was very uncomfortable.
I'm a big guy that doesn't wear a wetsuit for much of the year (God gave quite a bit of insulation), but last year during Christmas/New Years I was working as a dive guide doing 3-4 dives/day. When the water dropped to 24 degrees it was cold enough for me to put on a full 3mm. Then it dropped to 22 degrees around New Years and even with a hood I was very uncomfortable.