Tropical Weather Alert

[Wookie]

Aaaggg.. I'm suppose to be flying to Coz on Sunday!

It will have passed Coz by Sunday. Unless it swings around for another go. After Wilma, no guarantees.

 

[Roatan Joe]

It will have passed Coz by Sunday. Unless it swings around for another go. After Wilma, no guarantees.

That's good.. Fingers are crossed. Good luck with finding safe waters for the M/V Spree..

 

[AggieDiver]

Keep an eye on the models over the next few days. By friday or saturday, they should have a better handle on what is going to happen after it crosses the yucatan. The models that are developing something are mostly showing it starting to spin up on sunday and monday. The ones showing development are generally split on whether it goes back into the yucatan near coz or heads north over western cuba then east.

The latest gfs version that is running now is less agressive about development and now shows it spinning down to honduras and then breaking up as it moves back northwest into the yucatan.

 

[Wookie]

Keep an eye on the models over the next few days. By friday or saturday, they should have a better handle on what is going to happen after it crosses the yucatan. The models that are developing something are mostly showing it starting to spin up on sunday and monday. The ones showing development are generally split on whether it goes back into the yucatan near coz or heads north over western cuba then east.

The latest gfs version that is running now is less agressive about development and now shows it spinning down to honduras and then breaking up as it moves back northwest into the yucatan.

You are seeing different guidance than I am. I see 9 of 10 models moving it straight to Caymans and then to the western tip of Cuba on it's way to Key West. I'm using Spaghetti Models.

 

[AggieDiver]

The problem with just looking at the spaghetti plot for a storm like this is that once they initialize with a closed circulation, they will continue to show a track for whatever the lowest pressure is even if the storm has dissipated to next to nothing. I tend to look more at the MSLP plots from the actual model runs from models like the GFS that I linked above or the NAM to see whether they actually develop much intensity. I don't rely on my interpretation of them to make a decision though. I am just looking at them to understand what is being discussed in the NHC's forecast discussion. They will often reference one model or set of models that is different than the others...in this case, the GFS has been more aggressive at developing a large storm once in the Caribbean than most of the other models. So I look at that set of models to see if there are possibilities other than what is being discussed in the official NHC forecast. In this case, the GFS had been predicting a strong storm developing from the remnants of TD#9 starting on about the 26th or 27th around Roatan, then heading north and strengthening as it went west of the Caymans before heading to Florida. In the most recent run, it starts to show something right by Roatan, but then moves it inland over Central America and dissipates it. Only time and further runs will tell if that is a consistent solution that is believable or not, but at least it is in better agreement with most of the other models that don't do much to develop anything significant once it comes into the Caribbean.

I should also add a note that these are models working at the edge of their forecast skill when we are talking 5-7 days out. Especially for intensity, they are not very good for the most part beyond about 3 days. So take anything you see with a grain of salt. However, generally if a storm is going to develop into a strong to moderate storm, you will usually see a spread of models around where it ends up...with some showing stronger development and some showing less development. This year especially, the long range GFS solutions have been overly aggressive in showing development that in most cases hasn't come to pass. So if it is backing off of developing the storm and other models aren't showing much development, I start feeling maybe just ever so slightly better that maybe nothing much will come of it. But I won't stop watching to see if anything changes, as the models were all pretty badly wrong about how Wilma developed in a very similar scenario.

 

[Tampa_Frank]

Yeah, I'm bailing, going to drive to Pensacola and dire the Oriskiny

 

[diver 85]

I'm posting from Brac as we speak(CBBR)....100% sun till about 2 hrs ago-- turned cloudy with our 1st rainfall since we got here Saturday afternoon...leaving out for home(Louisiana) this Saturday-----hopefully.... So far no mention of no diving by dive shop here @ resort!!!...will check in tomorrow -here-to give a live eyeball weather report.....hoping EVERTHING works out for ALL....later.....Joe

EDIT:-----GREAT 4 days do diving----so far.....

 

[Drew Sailbum]

... I was in exactly this situation in October 2005, and made the decision to fly into Cozumel with Wilma as a small Cat 1 hurricane predicted to head for Cuba. Instead, Wilma underwent the fastest Cat 1 to Cat 5 development ever seen in the Caribbean and then headed directly for Coz. We got to spend about 48 hours huddled in a hotel bathroom under the right side eyewall of the storm when it pulled up stationary in the Yucatan Channel. I am understandably reluctant to fly into that situation again...

Come to Cayman and huddle in an entirely different bathroom!

Seriously, so far no guidance from our local Hazard Management people. I am due back to work on Sunday morning so this could be interesting.

What I'm seeing so far is a huge disagreement between the models after 72 hours or so.

Local weather radar in Cayman has all sorts of scattered blobs showing some small but intense rain pockets coming up from the south. That is not unusual for this time of year and does not appear to be associated with the system in the Bay of Campeche. If anything, that should act as lower level sheer to TD Nine.

 

[AggieDiver]

I am starting to feel better this afternoon (knock on wood). The last two runs of the GFS (12z and 18z) are in better agreement with the European model and are not showing any new development in the Western Caribbean after the current depression clears the Yucatan. I would not be as worried about it, except that I am headed to Little Cayman, so there isn't much shelter there from a significant storm. Huddling in the bathroom doesn't do much good when the bathroom is about 8 feet above sea level and 100 yards from the waterfront. It looks for now like it will just be fairly rainy for most of the week, but why should that bother me much if I plan to be underwater for most of it?

 

[chillyinCanada]

I'm going to be in Belize on Tuesday. Rain rain go away, come again another . ..month.