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As a former actuary, let me say that awap has given you perfect advice, and random events are independent of prior experience. So, if your (fair) coin has come up heads ten times in a row, the odds of it coming up tails on the next toss are still 50-50. You're not "due." Most people know this but very few people internalize it--it cuts against the hardwiring of our brains, I guess. So travel insurance was a bad bet on your first trip and it's still a bad bet now, no matter how many times you got lucky in between.Thanks for the info. I currently use DAN for dive insurance.
I've felt the same way as you awap about trip insurance. However, I would imagine that I will get caught out sooner or later.
Again, I don't know what the costs of insurance are, but if it's reasonably cheap, I say what the heck.
How does that Brain Hardwiring thing work---Since I live in a flood zone but haven't flooded the last 3 flood events is my flood insurance a bad bet? Since I have made 10 successful trips outside the territory of the US, should I cancel my outside of the US Health Insurance and go uninsured because it's a bad bet. Since I have been diving 19 years without a DCS incident I guess I should have cancelled my DAN insurance because it's a bad bet and paid the $3200 cost of a chamber ride for the skin bends I had last time out. Just wondering?As a former actuary, let me say that awap has given you perfect advice, and random events are independent of prior experience. So, if your (fair) coin has come up heads ten times in a row, the odds of it coming up tails on the next toss are still 50-50. You're not "due." Most people know this but very few people internalize it--it cuts against the hardwiring of our brains, I guess. So travel insurance was a bad bet on your first trip and it's still a bad bet now, no matter how many times you got lucky in between.
As a former actuary, let me say that awap has given you perfect advice, and random events are independent of prior experience. So, if your (fair) coin has come up heads ten times in a row, the odds of it coming up tails on the next toss are still 50-50. You're not "due." Most people know this but very few people internalize it--it cuts against the hardwiring of our brains, I guess.
"Bad bet" means that you have a negative expectancy, that's all. The bet costs more than the probability of the event multiplied by the payout. It may be a sound decision to insure your home against flooding even if it is a "bad bet," because the consequences of the event outweigh the small loss you take making a bad bet. That is where we cross from probability to economics--there is added utility in preventing a catastrophic loss. As awap pointed out, however, loss of a vacation is not (or should not be) catastrophic.How does that Brain Hardwiring thing work---Since I live in a flood zone but haven't flooded the last 3 flood events is my flood insurance a bad bet? Since I have made 10 successful trips outside the territory of the US, should I cancel my outside of the US Health Insurance and go uninsured because it's a bad bet. Since I have been diving 19 years without a DCS incident I guess I should have cancelled my DAN insurance because it's a bad bet and paid the $3200 cost of a chamber ride for the skin bends I had last time out. Just wondering?