Thunderstorms next week?

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Hello! We are headed to Cozumel this Sunday 9/22 for 2 weeks and it looks like there's going to be some storms headed that ways as well. 7 day outlook has a medium chance of cyclone formation in the next week (Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) and the weather forecast shows a lot of thunderstorms. Our worry is that we may only get 2-3 dive days in with this weather. Any advice on how to make the best of the vacation if the port is closed for diving? Or should we just eat the cost of the tickets and re-book for another time? Anyone else in the same boat?

I just finished my e-learning and was planning on doing my open water dives early next week. My partner was going to do some 2-tank dives until I got certified. We figured that if we do end up going and the port is closed, we can go explore downtown and do some eating/drinking but not sure if our waistline can handle it if we do that for more than a few days!
 
Hello! We are headed to Cozumel this Sunday 9/22 for 2 weeks and it looks like there's going to be some storms headed that ways as well. 7 day outlook has a medium chance of cyclone formation in the next week (Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) and the weather forecast shows a lot of thunderstorms. Our worry is that we may only get 2-3 dive days in with this weather. Any advice on how to make the best of the vacation if the port is closed for diving? Or should we just eat the cost of the tickets and re-book for another time? Anyone else in the same boat?

I just finished my e-learning and was planning on doing my open water dives early next week. My partner was going to do some 2-tank dives until I got certified. We figured that if we do end up going and the port is closed, we can go explore downtown and do some eating/drinking but not sure if our waistline can handle it if we do that for more than a few days!

You're almost guaranteed of rain whenever you visit Coz. It's about an hour every day, then it goes away. What you really need to look at is the wind forecast. If the wind comes from the north, then the port will most likely be closed. The current from the south battling the wind from the north causes waves that can sink the small boats. I've had one dive called off due to a sudden storm. This was during our SI and the port closed as we were gearing up to do our second dive. Winds from the north have caused me to lose a day or two of diving during a visit. Some people have lost about a week of diving due to a Norte'.
 
Hello! We are headed to Cozumel this Sunday 9/22 for 2 weeks and it looks like there's going to be some storms headed that ways as well. 7 day outlook has a medium chance of cyclone formation in the next week (Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) and the weather forecast shows a lot of thunderstorms. Our worry is that we may only get 2-3 dive days in with this weather. Any advice on how to make the best of the vacation if the port is closed for diving? Or should we just eat the cost of the tickets and re-book for another time? Anyone else in the same boat?

I just finished my e-learning and was planning on doing my open water dives early next week. My partner was going to do some 2-tank dives until I got certified. We figured that if we do end up going and the port is closed, we can go explore downtown and do some eating/drinking but not sure if our waistline can handle it if we do that for more than a few days!
The most common cause of Cozumel port closures is onshore winds on the western coast of the island; wind from anything west of north can be problematic. That said, most closures this time of year are of short duration, so in a two week visit to the island you will almost certainly have plenty of dive days.

It is the rainy season now, so it's not unusual for the forecast to say "Thunderstorms" or "Chance of Thunderstorms" for every day, but most of them are pretty small squalls. They don't usually affect any given spot on the island for long, and the port doesn't close just for rain.

Have a great trip!
 
The most common cause of Cozumel port closures is onshore winds on the western coast of the island; wind from anything west of north can be problematic. That said, most closures this time of year are of short duration, so in a two week visit to the island you will almost certainly have plenty of dive days.

It is the rainy season now, so it's not unusual for the forecast to say "Thunderstorms" or "Chance of Thunderstorms" for every day, but most of them are pretty small squalls. They don't usually affect any given spot on the island for long, and the port doesn't close just for rain.

Have a great trip!
Have a good time…rain by itself usually does not stop diving. As best I can see it most likely is going to me a rain event.

Dave Dillehay
 
We are headed to Cozumel this Sunday 9/22 for 2 weeks and it looks like there's going to be some storms headed that ways as well.
Well, it is storm season. Weatherunderground expects a dry day for your arrival but some rain following...
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7 day outlook has a medium chance of cyclone formation in the next week
Yeah, Disturbance 3 has virtually no chance of organizing in the next 48 hours but a 60% chance in the next week, with Cozumel and the Yucatan in the possible target area so it might even rain more later in your stay...
Screenshot 2024-09-20 191151.png

Any advice on how to make the best of the vacation if the port is closed for diving? Or should we just eat the cost of the tickets and re-book for another time?
Oh, I'd still go with a plan to stay flexible and work with your dive op. The wind forecast doesn't look bad for now so don't give up. I don't like getting rained on while on a moving boat, but it's not horrible. I do carry foil blankets in my dry bag to use as protection, but I have rarely used them. Do keep an eye on the expected Disturbance 3 that hasn't even made the map yet. In the unlikely even that it develops into a hurricane, then you might want to leave early before it may arrive, but it's not likely. Airlines often allow for free changes in such cases, but I hope you have good trip insurance which I always advise when leaving the US to anywhere; if not, then I'd shop for some now, buying coverage that take care of you if you need to escape. I've been to the island many times in storm season and only retreated once. Of course, DAN Dive Insurance is essential for all US divers.
You're almost guaranteed of rain whenever you visit Coz. It's about an hour every day, then it goes away.
That might be an exaggeration as I've had many dry days on the island, but generally true. It does rain a little frequently, just more so at times.
 
Thanks everyone for the advice. We are still pretty excited to fly over and escape work for a bit. Sounds like we'll just need to be flexible and see how the weather plays out in terms of wind/thunderstorms. I'm excited to see some fish 🐠
 
We figured that if we do end up going and the port is closed, we can go explore downtown and do some eating/drinking but not sure if our waistline can handle it if we do that for more than a few days!
Your dive op should work with you to get those certification OW dives in - in 2 weeks there should be some dive time. As mentioned earlier, stay flexible so when diving is a go, you're ready to go.

When not diving - you can only explore downtown so much. There's only so much touristy stuff on the island and if the weather isn't great, the ferry ride over to Playa del Carmen might not be a lot of fun. When we were there a couple of years ago for 2 weeks, we made it a point to eat at a different restaurant everyday which we really enjoyed (only went to one I wouldn't go to again.) Some possible ways to spend some time other than going downtown everyday are visiting the ruins and the museum, taking a tequila tour, or spending the day at Chankanaab Park or Punta Sur EcoPark. Enjoy your trip.
 
Your dive op should work with you to get those certification OW dives in - in 2 weeks there should be some dive time. As mentioned earlier, stay flexible so when diving is a go, you're ready to go.

When not diving - you can only explore downtown so much. There's only so much touristy stuff on the island and if the weather isn't great, the ferry ride over to Playa del Carmen might not be a lot of fun. When we were there a couple of years ago for 2 weeks, we made it a point to eat at a different restaurant everyday which we really enjoyed (only went to one I wouldn't go to again.) Some possible ways to spend some time other than going downtown everyday are visiting the ruins and the museum, taking a tequila tour, or spending the day at Chankanaab Park or Punta Sur EcoPark. Enjoy your trip.

All of this^^^.

I found this thread helpful on my last trip...

 
Thanks all for the activity and restaurant recs. Had good weather on Monday for some dive lessons and snorkeling (so many fish!). They closed the port Monday evening. Explored town a bit on Tuesday and had a good meal at La Choza. Picked up lots of snacks and groceries at Mega. Wind picked up early morning and has been howling ever since. Power was only out for 2 hours or so. Seems to be a bit calmer now that Helena is further north. Storm grew quickly, hoping everyone is staying safe as it heads towards the US mainland.
 
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