Your dive sites must be quite packed. If they turn out 6 divers a weekend per location, that's 2400 a year assuming each store gets a 2 week break. If they keep diving locally, and they've been around for 10 years, that's 24,000 mostly active divers in the local water up there just from the PADI stores.
Well, you're forgetting the 70+% dropout rate in this activity, which ... to my concern ... has a great deal to do with the fact that most entry-level divers are insufficiently trained to feel comfortable participating in diving once they're certified.
However, to address your comment, as a matter of fact, one of the biggest problems with diving locally during the warmer months is that the dive sites are typically so crowded it's difficult to find a parking spot. You often have to just sit and wait for one to open up. Even during the winter months a nice week-end, like we had recently, will bring out divers in droves.
That, frankly, would be rather astounding to me.
Clearly ...
I realize getting the numbers would be rather difficult, but I honestly wonder what the return rate for AOW and rescue are for those PADI shops. I wonder how many unique rentals and fills for local dives they see each month. I would be willing to bet a pretty hefty sum that the number of active local divers isn't as high as you might imagine. If it topped 40% that would be a major success for those shops.
Once you subtract the dropouts, it would be much higher than 40% ... probably closer to double that. Dive shops in our area tend to go through cycles, with some shops closing, others opening, and some doing much better than others. But overall there's enough diving here to support about two dozen dive shops within the 60 miles or so between Olympia and Seattle. Those shops couldn't exist by simply cranking out vacation divers.
I'm sure that living in that area the number of divers who continue to dive is higher than the middle of the upper mid-west. But the Great Lakes are also wreck diving heaven, so it's not like the diving here is horrible.
Of course not ... but the diving there is seasonal. Here it's year-round. And wreck-diving is a special type of diving that requires a lot of training, gear and dedication. Here the majority of our diving is from shore, with a variety that can accommodate lots of interests from the entry level diver to the deep wreck or wall diver. In fact, we have dive parks here ... one in particular that's designed almost specifically for the entry-level divers with about 30 acres of attractions in anywhere from 15 to 40 feet of water.
Frankly, King ... until you travel around a bit and develop an understanding of the differences in local conditions between different regions around the country, I don't think you really know what you're talking about. By your own admission, you've "seen" the north Atlantic once. Have you ever been to California? Dived there? Florida? Dived there? Pacific Northwest? Dived there? Hawaii? Dived there? Those four places alone each present their own unique attractions and challenges ... and learning to dive in any one of them won't necessarily qualify you to dive in the others.
Relating this back to the topic, a cookie-cutter approach to dive training simply doesn't accommodate those differences. By their own language, PADI and every other agency claims to be training people to dive in "conditions similar to those in which they were trained".
That doesn't square with your claims as to the intent of the PADI program. In fact, I don't think even the good folks at PADI would agree with what you are saying ... at least, I think they would prefer not to.
... Bob (Grateful Diver)