swell model? accurate forcast?

[Davee]

here are two links of swell models for the channel islands
https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/animate.pl/metoc/81/21/0-0-1/2
http://cdip.ucsd.edu/models/socal_now.shtml


my last dive was on may 8th at santa cruis. heres an archive from the second website of the weather.
http://cdip.ucsd.edu/onr2/model_archive/Southern_California/maps_2004/may/08/200405081130.gif

this shows pretty mild swells, but the conditions were nothing near mild. it was 5-7 foot swells and pretty windy in the channel, but calm backside santa cruis, but terrible vis.
what swell models do you trust, before i do my next trip, i would like to have an idea of what the weather would be like.
thankyou
dave

 

[Aquaphile]

Hi Davee,

I generally look at the CDIP for an indication of the swell. You have to know that it is a swell model that does not account for wind. If there is a Santa Ana blowing, even higher conditions can be moderated. So out in the Channel, if there is a lot of wind, the wind-generated waves can be sizable while the swell still fairly low.


So, I look at CDIP, both at the current conditions and at the three day forecast. The forecast tells me whether conditions are building or subsiding. This can make a difference when you're out at the Islands all day long.


I generally beach dive. So I take a look at Surfline (sorry, I don't have the URL; google it) for a surf report and weather report (which includes wind). They also have webcams.



Hope that helps.

good diving!