Around here the PADI open water course with lake dives costs $120 and with ocean dives it costs $170. To that you need to add personal gear ($100-$200) plus materials (about $70). If you select ocean dives, you need to include $50 or so for a 'diver grade' motel. Equipment rental (wetsuit, regulator, BC, weights, etc) run $50 for the course so the total bill is about $400.
That's not terribly expensive for the full program. There's probably room to reduce the cost and we might see some 'sales' later in the year. Winter is never the best time for classes (it really is but prospective students might not see it that way) but summer is on the way!
I don't have any interest in the argument that lower costs bring in less determined students. Who cares? Divers come and divers go, some stay longer than others. But the idea that retention is some kind of worthy metric just doesn't make sense to me. If I were an instructor (and I'm not) and I owned a shop (and I don't), I would give the course away for free! I would let the student rent or even borrow everything they needed. I would sell the material at the lowest price possible and help them find the cheapest motel.
My goal would be to create divers that someday could become customers. Long time, loyal, customers. And I wouldn't take it personally if they ultimately decided that diving just wasn't their thing. Of course, I couldn't afford to keep the lights on and would be out of business in a month or so.
Does anybody care that I buy a Ford and a year or so later decide that a Chevy is a better car for me? No! Same with diving. Perhaps golf turns out to be a more interesting pastime.
When cold water beach dives are all you have to offer, why would anyone take up diving? Not everyone will have the opportunity to dive in warm clear water from a boat. A six hour round trip to the beach to bash through surf while bundled in neoprene wearing 80# (or more) of gear just isn't everyone's idea of a good time.
Obviously, people on SB feel that scuba is a wonderful sport/hobby. It is, for people that like diving. But it is conceivable that someone could try diving, make a couple of dozen dives and then just walk away. It could be due to some 'near miss' or it could just be circumstances. It doesn't matter. Some stay longer than others.
PADI certifies about 180,000 entry level divers in the 'Americas' each year. Let's just say that all of them are in the US even though it isn't true. However, there other agencies so it is probably fair to say that the US gains 180,000 OW divers per year. If they all hung around, there wouldn't be room to swim! After just 10 years, we would have 1.8 MILLION more divers. If they all hung around where would we park?
I wish people would quit using retention as a metric. It just doesn't matter. The shop has made all the money they're going to get and it's time to move on to the next group.
Some stay longer than others...
Richard