predicting conditions - art or science?

[cra2]

I keep reading about ill-planned dives winding up cruddy due to low viz, high-waves, cold temps, etc.

But I've read (somewhere) that there's kind of a science to watching the meteorological charts and tides and stuff so you can know when the craps going to be kickin' up from on-shore or off-shore.

For those of you NOAA gurus who pay attention to that stuff, what's the process for predicting conditions before a dive? What resources do you use?

Thanks,
cra2

 

[Scuba_Jenny]

Preface: I am not a guru, nor do I play one on TV

I have a variety of sources to monitor the weather. Weather.com has local forecasts, NOAA has the bouys, of course there is the weather on the TV, and MIke has the neighbor who has lived on the beach for 40 years.
Most dives that are planned are contingent on the weather cooperating. Some dives on this board are planned months in advance, often with 50 or more people attending. You can't just cancel at the last minute, so you take a chance and hope all is good at the site. Sometimes it is (Ginnie Springs last fall as a tropical storm was blowing over...sunny, nice day instead), sometimes it isn't (Venice Beach last August, thunderstorms, red tide, aborted dives...BUT lots of fun to meet everybody)

 

[donacheson]

I keep reading about ill-planned dives winding up cruddy due to low viz, high-waves, cold temps, etc.

But I've read (somewhere) that there's kind of a science to watching the meteorological charts and tides and stuff so you can know when the craps going to be kickin' up from on-shore or off-shore.

For those of you NOAA gurus who pay attention to that stuff, what's the process for predicting conditions before a dive? What resources do you use?

Thanks,
cra2

Of course, you realize that weather prediction, a (if not the) major factor in predicting dive conditions, is characterized by large uncertainties as well.

Taking that as a given, then you should look to the marine forecasts issued by the National Weather service as being about as well as can be done. My own experience, however, has always led me to show at the dock and leave it up to the captain of the dive boat to decide whether or not to go. That approach has led to more than a few unexpectedly pleasant surprises. At worst, I get a rough ride to and from the dive sites - but since I seem to have been endowed with a cast iron stomach, that doesn't help those with tender ones.

 

[MikeJacobs]

SNIP... and MIke has the neighbor who has lived on the beach for 40 years.

His name is "Greg the diving neighbor" and he has the nature of an engineer/scientist. His career has involved marine weather, and he knows where to go and who to chat with.

His method is to look at all the sources (including sources you and I don't have access to) and then look outside at the sky and water. He seems to have an intuitive sense about predicting a weekend's dive conditions, but basically he's collecting information from a variety of sources, running it through is seasoned brain, and taking a guess like every other source.

Maybe Greg should put a website up or start a hotline for LBTS dive conditions... would you pay $0.25 for his forecast? I might lol...

But NOAA reports alone are just... amusing.

 

[simbrooks]

Taking that as a given, then you should look to the marine forecasts issued by the National Weather service as being about as well as can be done. My own experience, however, has always led me to show at the dock and leave it up to the captain of the dive boat to decide whether or not to go. That approach has led to more than a few unexpectedly pleasant surprises. At worst, I get a rough ride to and from the dive sites - but since I seem to have been endowed with a cast iron stomach, that doesn't help those with tender ones.

Sometimes i have taken the advice of the weather folk through a variety of sources, aborted certain activities only to find the day was near perfect conditions - that is a real pain. Other times i have flown in the face of the nay-saying doom merchants that are our local forecasters and gone to find that it was nasty. You really cant tell, however i try to look at the satellite pics on the weather channel and use my novice meterological skills to determine if i believe the forecasts or not - so far i havent been far off, unlike the 90% rainfall chances when its bone dry all day forecasted by the pros.

The times that really annoy me are when i cant dive due to sinus troubles caused by mould that grows in this humid state - that really ticks me off as i know other than that i could be out there doing it more often.

 

[Wally1716]

I keep reading about ill-planned dives winding up cruddy due to low viz, high-waves, cold temps, etc.

But I've read (somewhere) that there's kind of a science to watching the meteorological charts and tides....

...what's the process for predicting conditions before a dive? cra2

These NOAA guru...I happen to know a couple of them...spend
years of learning how to observe, analyze and synthesize
conditions to do it, then, even more years in post-grad and
PhD practice and research. Do you want it all in a detailed
thesis dissertation or a nutshell could suffice to answer your
query ?

Depending on who you refer to, the main tool is a Ouija Board,
dart, crystal ball, or nickel. There are dozens of "predictors",
that is factors that influence the outcome. Among them are
wind direction, wind speed, humidity, temperature, variations
of all these with height, which can be combined in thousands
of different permutations. To add to the overall confusion,
there are a dozen or so mathematical combinations (models)
which depend on the ball, board or nickel to weight the
influence of each factor...and each combination is different...
which will give a probability of what could be the end result.
NOT ALWAYS, all combinations or "models" point to the same
answer. Then, these guys must refine their aim, wipe the
crystal ball lens or change the dart angle to decide which
one "model" is giving the correct solution. Example : when
all ten predictors say it is going to rain, or NOT to rain the
forecast is easy. When five say "RAIN" and five say "NO RAIN"
...well then the forecast is for a 50% chance of rain (this is
a favorite of the nickel and dime forecasters). The same
applies to other parameters like wind, temperature and the
like.
Cappice ?
..
ps..There are three interesting articles on how to quasi-
predict the tidal current which could make a difference in
your dive found in the home page with address on the
signature. It gives you an idea on how to plan your dives
well ahead of time. Would you believe that the Accomplices
teach these concepts in their BASIC OPEN WATER courses ?