Ocean conditions for trip this weekend, Oct 21-22

[elgoog]

Hello SoCal area divers -

@sea_otter and I are currently scheduled to drive down from San Francisco and dive on the Magician this coming weekend - oil rigs on Saturday and Catalina on Sunday. The swell forecast looks pretty horrific but, to me, it looks like the area around Catalina and where the oil rigs near San Pedro are actually looks really calm. I vaguely remember reading somewhere that the San Pedro Bay area and the leeward side of Catalina is unusually protected from most ocean swells. Is this accurate? Looking at the swell report linked above, what does the collective SB SoCal wisdom say about the fate of these 2 days of diving? Any other resources for that area that are useful?

We're driving down on Friday but need to make a decision on the hotel by Wednesday afternoon to avoid paying anything. We contacted the dive ops running the trip and were told by one that the go/no-go decision would be made the day off and for the other 2 days ahead of time.

Thanks in advance.
elgoog

 

[MaxBottomtime]

It's difficult to tell a week in advance. Swell models are notoriously incorrect much of the time. They called for five feet swells yesterday and it was one of the nicest days on the water this year.

 

[shucksun]

I would continue to watch these sites but Phil has it right. I dive 2-3 weekends per month year round and go out to the islands, oil rigs etc once a month. It is almost impossible to predict what you will find. It changes by the hour. As an example, last December we left Ventura Harbor on the Spectre in swells so big the Skipper had to wait for a lull to exit the harbor. 15' breakers were hitting the surrounding beaches. The water in the harbor mouth looked like brown milk. I thought "Oh well, at least we can go for a boat ride." The skipper pulled into the lee of Anacapa for a OW dive class and then to another spot still in the lee. He said "We don't get to dive here much, its usually to rough (A,B,C,D Reefs). We jumped in and followed his instructions. It was a highlight dive for the year, beautiful kelp, viz 40-50'.

Judge for yourself (select 720P):
Come down and enjoy what you find!


CDIP recent forecast fm_scb_xxx

CDIP recent forecast fp_lac_000

 

[MaxBottomtime]

I made a dive on some street lamp poles sunk off Pt. Fermin once with Ross Overstreet. Merry and our friend Elaine Jobin stayed on the boat because the six foot swells were rocking us pretty hard. When Ross and I got three feet below the surface it was as calm as could be. We had great visibility on the bottom and no surge. When we surfaced Merry and Elaine were wearing life jackets because they said a wave nearly capsized the boat. Strangely enough, that was also one of my last dives with Ross.
He sold his boat soon after that.

 

[merxlin]

If you zoom in and use the Seal Beach- Newport swells you'll see they are 2-3ft, and also 11-14 second intervals, which is very manageable for the rigs.

 

[Trailboss123]

I would continue to watch these sites but Phil has it right. I dive 2-3 weekends per month year round and go out to the islands, oil rigs etc once a month. It is almost impossible to predict what you will find. It changes by the hour. As an example, last December we left Ventura Harbor on the Spectre in swells so big the Skipper had to wait for a lull to exit the harbor. 15' breakers were hitting the surrounding beaches. The water in the harbor mouth looked like brown milk. I thought "Oh well, at least we can go for a boat ride." The skipper pulled into the lee of Anacapa for a OW dive class and then to another spot still in the lee. He said "We don't get to dive here much, its usually to rough (A,B,C,D Reefs). We jumped in and followed his instructions. It was a highlight dive for the year, beautiful kelp, viz 40-50'.

Judge for yourself (select 720P):
Come down and enjoy what you find!


CDIP recent forecast fm_scb_xxx

CDIP recent forecast fp_lac_000

Great video @shucksun - thanks for sharing!

 

[elgoog]

It's difficult to tell a week in advance. Swell models are notoriously incorrect much of the time. They called for five feet swells yesterday and it was one of the nicest days on the water this year.

Totally agree. I was trying to get a general idea of what to look out for in that area.

I would continue to watch these sites but Phil has it right. I dive 2-3 weekends per month year round and go out to the islands, oil rigs etc once a month. It is almost impossible to predict what you will find. It changes by the hour.
<snip>
Judge for yourself (select 720P):
CDIP recent forecast fm_scb_xxx

CDIP recent forecast fp_lac_000

Awesome video!! And thanks for the additional 2 links.

If you zoom in and use the Seal Beach- Newport swells you'll see they are 2-3ft, and also 11-14 second intervals, which is very manageable for the rigs.

Yes, that's what I saw and thought was super calm. I just wasn't sure how much the offshore swell impacted diving.

Thanks for the responses so far. Anyone going on the Magician this weekend ?