Sorry I ain’t buying it. The cost to send a boat out with a lite load of a couple of diver’s verses a full load up to the legal limit per DM is basically the same. Fuel costs are basically a push with minimal increase in fuel burn. Labor cost are already paid for the captain and DM (possibly a higher tip split with additional divers) Air fills cost a couple bucks each and park fees are 2 bucks each plus snacks at a couple bucks. Basically it costs less $10 extra to fill an otherwise empty seat, which has zero value after it leaves the pier.
Now over the long term I can understand and support your position. Having worked for an airline for better than 30 years now, I understand the dilemma. It’s not a cost per diver yield that truly counts it’s the average yield per trip that counts over the long run. For years the airlines could not resist last minute sales to fill unused seats and the consumers reacted by waiting to purchase at the last minute discounted price which caused the average yield per flight to be suppressed. Many thousands of workers lost their jobs through consolidation until the airlines could exercise pricing discipline in a consolidated industry so that they were not, on average, flying flights at a loss.
What scares me is the number of boats that I understand are operating without permits in the park due to poor enforcement (and failure of the park to manage the existing permit population). I know several DM’s outfitting boats to join into the fray due to the example of the current bootleg boats. This can only help suppress the prices to those operators who are paying the extra costs to play by the rules.
Yeh - I probably didn't explain that part of my explanation very well - but your airline analogy helped actually. And yes, there is a huge problem with "pirate" boats as we're calling them - boats and operations without permits, business licenses etc. - one of the things we will be tackling with our Association of LEGAL dive shops - will also be bringing awareness to visitors with a listing of legal operations - more will be revealed