Local News

[ggunn]

Above-normal activity forecast for the Atlantic 2025 hurricane season - Riviera Maya News

Riviera Maya, Q.R. -- As many as 18 hurricanes are forecast to develop in the Atlantic Basin this year for the 2025 season.

riviera-maya-news.com

Last year we had to delay our annual family trip to CZM from our normal late April time until late June, and three tropical systems interfered with us in the two weeks we were there. This year we are back to our normal time, so there should not be any TS issues for us.

 

[gopbroek]

Above-normal activity forecast for the Atlantic 2025 hurricane season - Riviera Maya News

Riviera Maya, Q.R. -- As many as 18 hurricanes are forecast to develop in the Atlantic Basin this year for the 2025 season.

riviera-maya-news.com

Time will tell. Ever year that I can remember, in the spring, there will be news articles that a higher than normal hurricane season is forcasted. It seldom works out as forcasted.

 

[NDL_Diver]

Time will tell. Ever year that I can remember, in the spring, there will be news articles that a higher than normal hurricane season is forcasted. It seldom works out as forcasted.

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Sooner or later their prediction will be correct.

 

[ggunn]

Time will tell. Ever year that I can remember, in the spring, there will be news articles that a higher than normal hurricane season is forcasted. It seldom works out as forcasted.

I would like to see a historical fact based analysis comparing these predictions (high or low compared with the average number of named storms) with what the hurricane seasons were actually like. Anecdotal accounts tend to support preconceived notions.

 

[JFS]

Time will tell. Ever year that I can remember, in the spring, there will be news articles that a higher than normal hurricane season is forcasted. It seldom works out as forcasted.

They always make some fear based claim just to get reader views. Pretty much just clickbait.

 

[BRT]

Time will tell. Ever year that I can remember, in the spring, there will be news articles that a higher than normal hurricane season is forcasted. It seldom works out as forcasted.

What does the Farmers Almanac say?

 

[ggunn]

They always make some fear based claim just to get reader views. Pretty much just clickbait.

Who is "they"?

 

[Shawn C]

I would like to see a historical fact based analysis comparing these predictions (high or low compared with the average number of named storms) with what the hurricane seasons were actually like. Anecdotal accounts tend to support preconceived notions.

Here's what I use to compare seasonal predictions to reality. I'm sure there's something out there that's better/easier (that I haven't found) but this works:

Open two tabs in your browser. Go to this site in one of them: Home
(this site also provides other organizations' predictions other than just the NOAA one)

In the other tab, I type a google search: hurricane season prediction <year> (i.e. hurricane season prediction 2018)

A normal season (based on seasonal average) will have 7 named hurricanes. We can debate if this number should be higher given the unusually warm waters in the Caribbean making the seasonal average no longer as relevant a data point as it once was.