Little Cayman in November - Need your input

[diver 85]

I don't know what data is on Trip Advisor, but here are the hurricane totals for Grand Cayman from Cayman Islands Hurricanes :

July August September October November

..1 .....7...........10...........8..............3

------the ole Bell Curve there......

 

[AggieDiver]

I went back and looked at what I came up with for the last 25 years regarding storms passing within 100 miles of the Caymans. I looked at annual tracks for hurricanes and tropical storms for the last 25 years on the National Hurricane Center archives website. I found 2 in August, 4 in September (all after the 12th), 2 in October, and 3 in November. So that is 2 storms prior to the typical "peak" and 9 storms after the "peak". The conclusion I had come to based on looking at it was that although the "peak" for the overall Caribbean is around September 10th depending on which source you look at, there is not an equal bell curve type distribution around the peak. In the Caymans, based on the recent data, you appear to be about 4 times as likely to see a storm nearby after the overall "peak" date than you are at or before it.

---------- Post added March 31st, 2015 at 11:45 AM ----------

BTW, part of the difference between what I found and the numbers Alex posted is that his data goes back much further, but only includes hurricanes, while I only looked at the last 25 years and looked at all named storms including tropical storms. I suspect if you looked at the records closely, you would find a lot of tropical storms later in the season in the western Caribbean and GoM that don't ever make it to hurricane strength due to increasing shear caused by fronts coming off the coast from the US. That skews the data I looked at to a lopsided curve, while the hurricane data is a more traditional bell curve.

 

[Alex777]

I agree that including the tropical storms (which my data does not) is more relevant to divers. I am not so sure there is a justification for confining the data to the last 25 years. Interesting thread, anyway.

 

[Lopez116]

Would you guys hesitate to visit Little Cayman in the first couple of weeks in November? Planning around potential hurricanes isn't possible..I know, I know. Just looking for feedback.

(I'm also considering Cozumel in November.)

Don't overthink it. Go!

 

[AggieDiver]

I agree. The only justification for limiting it to the last 25 years was that I was doing it all manually using maps from the National Weather Service website. If anybody wants to pay me for it, I will go back as far as the records go.

 

[keyshunter]

Don't overthink it. Go!

I agree. Trip insurance is probably a good idea.

 

[AggieDiver]

Trip insurance is always a good idea, but make sure you know what is or isn't covered. Some trip insurance will only cover losses resulting from actual closure of a hotel or cancellation of activities due to a storm. So if you realize your destination is about to take a hit and decide not to fly down before the hotel is actually closed, you may not be covered. or if the hotel stays open during the storm to accommodate guests who couldn't leave, they may not cover you. In most cases, airlines, reputable dive resorts, and their dive operators, will work with you to reschedule around a hurricane without change fees, so what you gain from the trip insurance due to a storm caused cancellation may be marginal compared to the cost of the insurance. There are plenty of other good reasons to have trip insurance, but I have always been somewhat undecided as to whether coverage for storm related problems by itself is really worth it. To me, trip insurance is really for the things you aren't imagining happening (family illness, last-minute injury, etc.), while storms are kind of a known commodity that you can work around if you have a decent resort and airline.