Herd Immunity in Indonesia

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Quote them on it, but until there are multiple vaccines and longer term efficacy studies, they are only committing to reality. You cannot eliminate a mutating virus, but if the S-Spike vaccine works like the inventors suggest it should, the mutations are irrelevant because the virus cannot latch. Its new technology, they just don't have the long-term knowledge to be definitive and what they say gets held against them forever.

If the RNA vaccine is the go, there will likely be an annual shot to pick up the mutations. Just like the flu shot, the virus has not gone away, we live with it, its a really significant killer, but the shots are available. It'd be interesting to see where the current reproduction rates are, but seasonal influenza is R2 and SARS-COV-2 was R4, so an annual one-shot combined vaccine for $20 would accept the virus is here to stay but completely mitigate its effects so that the new normal for life includes random, last-minute travel. You might need your immunisation book with your passport, but if you've every returned from South America you have that anyway.

We must live with COVID-19, says Air New Zealand CEO

I read this article last night, Air New Zealand CEO ran Walmart for 9 years before. He raises some interesting points, being that a vaccine may only be 50% effective, and that in some countries like the USA only 50% of people might be willing to get it

IMO if people get tested to see if they already have a pre-existing T-cell immunity response to Covid-19, that will go a longer way into measuring immunity projections in conjunction with best estimates of how many people will actually choose to get a covid-19 vaccine

 

[broncobowsher]

might make things easier to understand, or not

 

[Centrals]

China is leading the world for a covid-19 vaccine, they have multiple vaccines

Really!!
Where did you get this BS from?

 

[Centrals]

China handled covid-19 very well. Their economy and way of life has been a great success. Perhaps people can take a page out of their book

What you don't know you don't know!

150, used to be 250, of those lots are moving to HK daily since 01 July 1997!!!!!
They came to HK to give birth so their offspring can study in HK!!!!! What a sense during school term in our border when hundred of kids crossing to HK to attend school!!!!
There are plenty more examples!!!!!

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Really!!
Where did you get this BS from?

'At war time speed', China leads COVID-19 vaccine race


"If I had to pick a vaccine that I think would be the most likely to be safe and effective, it would be that one," he said. Offit is also co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine, RotaTeq, manufactured by Merck & Co Inc (MRK.N).

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

What you don't know you don't know!

150, used to be 250, of those lots are moving to HK daily since 01 July 1997!!!!!
They came to HK to give birth so their offspring can study in HK!!!!! What a sense during school term in our border when hundred of kids crossing to HK to attend school!!!!
There are plenty more examples!!!!!

Ex-Goldman economist Jim O'Neill says China's economy 'well on the way' to recover from coronavirus

China is well on its way to recovering from a coronavirus pandemic-led economic crisis and will continue to be the most important marginal driver of global GDP

What you don't know you don't know!

Don't people speak Chinese there?

 

[DuTemplar]

Chilly, in keeping on the subject of scuba, I personally would dread getting an illness that would affect my ability to dive, especially a long lasting respiratory illness. But this is a very small minority, and like other illnesses we can't stop them all

Agreed. But on the overall impact, risks, and damage sustained: I'm more concerned with TB than Covid. It's sneakier and starts doing lung damage long before you actually realize you have it. In the last published numbers I saw were for 2017. Worldwide, there were 10,000,000 new cases of TB with 1,300,000 deaths from it. That's a "normal" kind of year they were slowly trying to keep chipping down. That isn't factoring in the increasing drug resistance, multi-drug resistance.... No bueno.
How many TB cases and deaths are there?

Worldwide, 1,300,000 die from vehicle accidents every year.
List of countries by traffic-related death rate - Wikipedia

By comparison, and I'm not sure how accurate the Worldometer site is, but they try to run decent numbers... For Covid, an estimated near 32,000,000 cases and 960,000 deaths so far this year. It primarily targets a particularly vulnerable and weakened population.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 31,488,661 Cases and 969,362 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

General info: Causes of Death

Life is a constant risk/ benefit analysis. Everything we do carries a cost, and a risk. Delicious greasy hamburger? More cholesterol and harder arteries. Driving? Crashing. Sushi? Parasites. Beautiful African safari? Mambas and mauled by lions. Breathing air? Dust, germs, pollen. Scuba? Drowning. Parachuting? Gravity. Marriage? Losing all your stuff or getting smothered in your sleep.

The tricky part is figuring out if the juice is worth the squeeze and planning the safety margins to what is "acceptable."

Everyone dies. Hopefully I can pass like my grandfather, peacefully in his sleep... not screaming and terrified like the others in the car he was driving.

 

[Germie]

But why would you take a vaccine that is not really effective and cannot be tested in the right way? I don't want a vaccine like that. I am also not afraid of getting infected. For me, I know it will be without symptoms, or only mild like a simple cold. Then a vaccine is worser than the infection itself. I am not against vaccines, but for example, HPV is also a one that I would not take. I don't need an influenza vaccine, but took the one for hepatitus A, or tetanus. They are already so long on the market that you know what can happen. And a couple of years I took the DTP vaccine again and yes, I went ill. 2 days I was not fit. Ok, I could do diving, but I was tired, my arm hurted, but I knew it is was not a real illness, it was from the vaccine. If I get the same reaction from an corona or influenza vaccine, I will not take it. The reason is risk-risk. The risk of getting ill is for me almost zero. Once in 8 years or so I get a fever from influenza. That is better than every year 2 days ill. No symptoms or just a 2 days cold from corona what you also don't know how often you get it, but I think it will be in the 1 in 5 or 10 years range, is less problematic than 2 days ill because of a vaccine every year.

I think we already can return to normal life. If you see now, a lot of (false) positive tests (pcr is not designed for people without or only mild symptoms, officially you need to do a bloodtest after every positive test, but nobody does), hospitals are empty, influenza is gone (in my country completely, so impossible), and doctors already state that the virus is mutated into mild(er). It is not the same strain anymore as in march.
The biggest problem is that media and governments are making people afraid of it. But look at the digits, I think Sweden has done it the right way and more and more people also agree with that. Yes, in the beginning it is not bad to be a little bit safe, but now, there is no need anymore, at least not where I live.
They destroy now lifes because of social distance and closing things like bars, disco's, etc. The numbers of suicide are really higher than normal.
I also know some people who are in riskgroups (age, heartproblems, etc), and they also say: normal life back is better, if we are afraid, we can take our own precautions.

In my country, by law (if they don't change it of course), is written that a vaccine is never required, you can always say no. That is a good thing.

How it is now in Indonesia, I don't know. The numbers of 'positives' are not important. It is important to know if people get in hospital or just are without symptoms or only mild symptoms.
I always say: a virus, soooo deadly that you need tested to know if you have it. And that is true in this.
We know already a lot more than in march and we see it is not as deadly as it was anymore.
Maybe it is herd immunity, but that is also not bad. A mutated strain, everything is fine if we get normal life back. The life now is bad for everybody.
I like the people in Indonesia, it is a cheap country and if tourists come, it is win-win. They earn money again, economy is working again and the tourists have a good time. Good for everybody.
But not only for Indonesia, all countries must be accessible again without limits.
But originally I had booked a flight on 6 september to Denpasar, if Indonesia had opened normal for foreign tourists on 10 september, I had rebooked it. Normal means for me no masks outside. In a shop, not usefull, but if people want ok. But for now I don't come back if life is not completely normal again.
You also see countries don't have 1 way. Here it is 1.5m, masks don't work government say ( and I agree), but we need to wear one in public transport, still 1.5m distance. In other countries it is 1m, and if you cannot stay away 1 m, then wear a mask, crowds are then no problem. That makes life already much easier. 1m or 1.5m is a big difference.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Agreed. But on the overall impact, risks, and damage sustained: I'm more concerned with TB than Covid. It's sneakier and starts doing lung damage long before you actually realize you have it. In the last published numbers I saw were for 2017. Worldwide, there were 10,000,000 new cases of TB with 1,300,000 deaths from it. That's a "normal" kind of year they were slowly trying to keep chipping down. That isn't factoring in the increasing drug resistance, multi-drug resistance.... No bueno.
How many TB cases and deaths are there?

Worldwide, 1,300,000 die from vehicle accidents every year.
List of countries by traffic-related death rate - Wikipedia

By comparison, and I'm not sure how accurate the Worldometer site is, but they try to run decent numbers... For Covid, an estimated near 32,000,000 cases and 960,000 deaths so far this year. It primarily targets a particularly vulnerable and weakened population.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 31,488,661 Cases and 969,362 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

General info: Causes of Death

Life is a constant risk/ benefit analysis. Everything we do carries a cost, and a risk. Delicious greasy hamburger? More cholesterol and harder arteries. Driving? Crashing. Sushi? Parasites. Beautiful African safari? Mambas and mauled by lions. Breathing air? Dust, germs, pollen. Scuba? Drowning. Parachuting? Gravity. Marriage? Losing all your stuff or getting smothered in your sleep.

The tricky part is figuring out if the juice is worth the squeeze and planning the safety margins to what is "acceptable."

Everyone dies. Hopefully I can pass like my grandfather, peacefully in his sleep... not screaming and terrified like the others in the car he was driving.

I'm more concerned with TB than Covid. It's sneakier and starts doing lung damage long before you actually realize you have it.

I've met someone in Indonesia who got over TB. But they had permanent wheezing everytime they breathed.

More than a million die of TB every year, 15-20% are children.
Children dying of covid would be 0.00001% or around that mark

 

[chillyinCanada]

I've met someone in Indonesia who got over TB. But they had permanent wheezing everytime they breathed.

More than a million die of TB every year, 15-20% are children.
Children dying of covid would be 0.00001% or around that mark

Again, death isn't the worst of it and we don't yet know what could be the result long term. For this part of the discussion let's leave out long term covid sufferers who exist in your country too.

Because this virus is so new, we do not know what harm it could cause the children or young people in the decades to come.

Germie says he's not afraid to be infected. He believes that he will recover quickly. He doesn't know how many people he may have affected before realizing that he should spend a day or two in self-isolation.

In a few decades, but still before Germie is old and certainly long before the children are old, they come to find that they have heart problems. They become weak and die "before their time".

We just don't know. However, scientists have found that even those who were asymptomatic have heart damage, and it's even worse for those who worked out during their infection period.

Dan doesn't want to end up not able to dive. Nor do I or anyone posting on this thread.

The governments will determine what shall be done. May we hope that each one governs wisely and well for the overall benefit of the majority of their citizens.