Global warming equals fewer hurricanes?

[deeper thoughts]

Scientists: Warm seas may mean fewer hurricanes
By Ken Kaye | Sun-Sentinel.com
12:56 PM EST, January 22, 2008
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Digg Del.icio.us Facebook Fark Google Newsvine Reddit Yahoo Print Reprints Post comment Text size: Following in the footsteps of an earlier study, government scientists on Tuesday said warmer oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States.

The reason: As sea surface temperatures warm globally, sustained vertical wind shear increases. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to form and grow.

"Using data extending back to the middle 19th century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up," Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, said in a prepared statement.



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Sang-Ki Lee, of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami, worked with Wang on the study. Their findings are to be published on Wednesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The study found that the warming of the Pacific and Indian oceans plays an important role in determining hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

A study released in December found that as the Atlantic basin becomes hotter, hurricane intensity likely won't increase and might even deflate somewhat. That study found that ocean's heat acts to stabilize the upper atmosphere, which, in turn, hurts a storm's ability to build.

It was conducted by Gabriel Vecchi, a NOAA research oceanographer and Brian Soden, an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Miami.

Several other studies have asserted that global warming is steadily increasing the intensity, duration and number of tropical systems. For instance, Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, found the combined power of Atlantic hurricanes has more than doubled since 1970.

Regarding the most recent study, Wang said vertical wind shear is not the only factor that determines Atlantic hurricane activity, but noted it is an important one. Other factors include atmospheric humidity, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature, he said.

Observations from 1854 to 2006 show almost all the world's oceans have warmed, particularly in large areas of the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans, the study found. That warming has increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic and suppressed hurricane activity, the NOAA study found.

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Findings are changing like the weather

 

[DeepSeaExplorer]

There was also an article in Scientific American that essentially said that global warming would save lives because more people freeze to death each year than those that die from the heat. The author wasn't supporting global warming, just pointing out the oddities associated with it. However, there is sure to be more conflict as people compete for resourceses.

 

[Warthaug]

Two points, one for each of the above posts:

Global warming equals fewer hurricanes?

And we know that warmer seas equal more intense hurricanes. I'm not to sure how this balances out - fewer of them (maybe), but the ones we get will be more intense.

There was also an article in Scientific American that essentially said that global warming would save lives because more people freeze to death each year than those that die from the heat.

That same article was heavily criticized for ignoring other variables - spreading of warm-area diseases (malaria being the main concern), loss of farmland, flooding, etc. Most indicators suggest death's should increase, and if current trends continue the number of people who no longer freeze to death will not counteract deaths of other causes.

When you get down to it, global warming will have a range of effects. Some may be beneficial (my own country, Canada, for example appears to be in a position to benefit greatly from improved farming in some regions), some may be neutral (i.e. shifting of rainfall from one area to another), and others will be harmful (i.e. submergence of the Maldives, larger droughts, more intense storms, spread of disease, etc).

The problem is that the bad seems to be far outweighing the good. And most of the bad stuff is, or is expected to, occur in the regions least able to deal with it - the third and developing world.

Bryan

 

[vshearer]

I am just waiting for tropical reefs to show up off the North Carolina/South Carolina coast.

 

[Warthaug]

I am just waiting for tropical reefs to show up off the North Carolina/South Carolina coast.

Don't hold your breath. Acdification of the oceans, due to the absorption of CO₂, is expected to lower the oceans pH to a point where reefs will no longer be able to form.

Diver Magazine (New Page 1) had an article this month on this phenomena, although various scientific articles have been published on it over the past few years.

Some of these scientific reports are particularly bleak, one of which (link below) suggests that we may not see many reefs in 50 or so years.

Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification -- Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 318 (5857): 1737 -- Science

Bryan