Forecast for Diving Certifications

[zaberman1]

I had a few people contact me regarding the forecasting analysis I posted about in the Data Request thread. I completed a rough analysis using data on the PADI website and would post it to the forum but the pdf is 1.1 MB (>400 KB when compressed). If you were one of the people that wanted to see it/contacted me, please pm me with your email address or post it here.

I am sharing it for academic reasons, it should not be used for business decisions or marketing purposes. I make no claim that my forecast is correct or useful, just interesting. Hopefully it will open up a dialogue/criticism of the model and not turn into mindless bashing.

Here is the conclusion:

Regardless of the model used, I was able to show that the demand for PADI certifications will gradually decline over the next 10 years. The pattern exhibited in the percentage change of the natural logarithm for certifications appears to have remained constant since 1979. My empirical analysis predicts that PADI reached a plateau in the amount of certifications performed each year and will begin to decline. Perhaps with additional data, I could have produced a more conclusive and better model, however, given the restrictions, my model generated appropriate results.

EDIT: I had no idea where to post this. If there is a more appropriate thread, can someone please move it?

 

[diversteve]

How about in the top-level forum here? While not a perfect match it seems better than W/C.

Q and A for Scuba Certification Agencies - ScubaBoard

This is the place to ask that Dive Agency about their classes!
Dive Agency and other industry reps: Discuss your products and services. Tell us about any new products you might have. Ask for constructive criticism of your products and services. Share any other information you feel would be of interest.

It's an open forum so anyone can respond. If we put it in B2B viewing would be restricted to those individuals who can qualify for entrance to those forums.

 

[zaberman1]

^ agreed

 

[scubamarketing]

Regardless of where it goes, I'd love a copy. Nickb@LeisurePro.com works fine. I'm especially curious since I studied finance in college and all of the various long term financial models, then I worked in the real estate industry during the bubble burst where none of the popular models thought that could happen. So it'll be interesting for me to see if it's just a few bad years showing a "trend" or what. I'm a PADI instructor, but I think all of the agencies need to play a little nicer to expand the pie, otherwise everyone will end up with a smaller slice down the road.

 

[zaberman1]

Just sent nick