Cozumel population facts

[El Graduado]

I saw some interesting numbers on some government reports today.

There were 88,256 people living in Cozumel as of the last census in 2020. According to the Mexican government’s secretariat of welfare, 35,302 (almost 40% of the island’s population) are members of a family that makes less than the Mexican poverty level of $594.25 USD per month for a family of four. That works out to $37.10 dollars per week per person for food, housing, clothing, medicine, electricity, water, and everything else needed to live.

Many people say that medical services are free in Mexico. Actually, they are subsidized to a great extent only IF you are enrolled in one of the two Mexican Social Security systems (IMSS or ISSSTE). A whopping 33,411 Cozumeleños (over 37%) are not enrolled because their job does not pay their SS taxes or they are out of work and did not reach the level of contributions to their account before they lost their job or retired.

Only 8,757 inhabitants of Cozumel speak Mayan.

93.6% of households have someone with a cellphone.

2.63% of the island's population is illiterate. I'm guessing these are people who moved to Cozumel from Chiapas or other rural areas outside of Quintana Roo.

In 2009, the last time the count was made, INM says there were only 783 foreigners living in Cozumel with permanent or temporary resident permits. I think the reason so many foreigners believe that this number is higher is that the Americans and Canadians living in Cozumel are so visible to each; they tend to hang out in the same places as other Americans and Canadians.

The largest number of immigrants who moved to Cozumel in the last 5 years came from the United States (262 people); Colombia (56 people), and; Italy (42 people).

For historical Cozumel census numbers see: Cozumel's population, 1549 to 2020 - EverythingCozumel

 

[cozcharlie]

Your website says 88k adults , but your post above says 88k people. I am assuming the 88k people is what you mean? Honestly 88k people seems low, I am wondering if pandemic might have skewed it down a little

 

[El Graduado]

Your website says 88k adults , but your post above says 88k people. I am assuming the 88k people is what you mean? Honestly 88k people seems low, I am wondering if pandemic might have skewed it down a little

You are right. For the 1930 census, I just copied that part of my line from above that one that used "adults" as a metric. From 1930 on, they were counting "souls."

I am not sure what you mean by "skewed it down a little." I am sure the island had a net loss of residents due to the pandemic, but that doesn't mean the count was skewed. It just means there were fewer people living on the island than before the pandemic. Many died and many moved away for good.

What makes you think that 88K+ is low? I know a lot of people toss a number like 100,000 around, but I have never seen that many on any government census.

In 1995 they counted 48,385.
In 2005 they counted 73,193.
In 2010 they counted 79,535

 

[cozcharlie]

It seems like I have been hearing 100k for a good while now, though that hasn’t shown up in official statistics. The implicit growth from 2010 to 2020 looks a little low given the gradual island growth going east (not gangbusters like the mainland, but growth)

I think the vast majority of the jobs that disappeared in 2020 are back now. The diving industry probably fully recovered by mid 2021 and the cruise ships are mostly back though I don’t follow the exact numbers. If the tourists are back then the jobs/workers must also be back is my line of thinking.

 

[El Graduado]

If I was choosing between what some people guestimated the population of Cozumel was, or the results of a door-to-door population census made by INEGI, I know which one I would believe.

The census reports over the years show a steady decrease in the number of people per household on Cozumel and a steady increase in the number of households. That points not to a growing population, but that fewer people are crowded into homes like was the norm years ago. One reason for this change is the Mexican government’s program which helps Mexican citizens buy a small, government-subsidized house in one of the several new government-subsidized fraccionamientos west of town. These small “starter” houses are called “pie de casa” in Spanish. Many people take advantage of this program to buy one of these low-cost houses with a low-interest government mortgage as an investment. Renters who once were limited to renting a room or rooms in someone’s home, now have the option of renting one of these “pie de casas” from the buyer/investor. That doesn’t mean there are more people, it just means there are more houses.

I agree that the jobs are coming back, now that the worst days of the pandemic are over, but I don’t agree that necessarily means these new jobs were all filled by people returning to Cozumel. Some people whom I knew left the island for the mainland and never returned. Many others whom I know who lost their jobs just hunkered down to wait it out and are now being re-employed. But, those two previous sentences of mine are both just anecdotal; they are both unreliable hearsays and can’t be used to either support or invalidate the census results.

P.S I changed the word "adults" to "people" on my website. Thanks for catching my error!

 

[rmssetc]

If I was choosing between what some people guestimated the population of Cozumel was, or the results of a door-to-door population census made by INEGI, I know which one I would believe.

Agreed, though I do wonder how many people are undocumented and not counted in the census (ie., expat long-term residents staying on tourist visas).

The census reports over the years show a steady decrease in the number of people per household on Cozumel and a steady increase in the number of households. That points not to a growing population, but that fewer people are crowded into homes like was the norm years ago. One reason for this change is the Mexican government’s program which helps Mexican citizens buy a small, government-subsidized house in one of the several new government-subsidized fraccionamientos west of town.

Interesting. Thanks for the background & analysis.

However.... I suspect the fraccionamientos are east of town or south of town, maybe. West of town? Only if the subsidy includes nitrox.

 

[El Graduado]

Agreed, though I do wonder how many people are undocumented and not counted in the census (ie., expat long-term residents staying on tourist visas).

Interesting. Thanks for the background & analysis.

However.... I suspect the fraccionamientos are east of town or south of town, maybe. West of town? Only if the subsidy includes nitrox.

Right! East... I am a little dyslexic today.

The INEGI census takers go door to door, leaving a sticker on the houses they check. They go back if no one was home. They count everybody, not just Mexican citizens. They have some fill out a long questionnaire that asks about nationality, others they just count. There is no question they don't catch everybody, but they come pretty close. The people staying in Cozumel on tourist visas have always been hard to count, since they may have arrived by ferry from the mainland after passing immigration there. I wouldn't imagine, though, too many people with tourist visas live full-time on the island. It is doable, but inconvenient as far as bank accounts, contracts, and such. I imagine most get a resident visa and are easier to count.