I buy the story that poverty on Bonaire is not a valid excuse. Sure there are some humble dwellings, but I saw no emaciated figures grouped around the supermarket exits. It has to be cultural; i.e. a tolerance of being lenient on "locals".
The police provide statistics (2015 - in papiamento): -
http://www.politiecn.com/images/stories/20160309_CRIMINALITEITSCIJFERS BONAIRE 2015 DEF.PDF
# The population of Bonaire has increased from 15823 in 2011 to 18905 in 2015 = just short of 20%, probably 5 times too high to be due to natural population growth. This has to mean massive immigration.
# There are 141 persons in police service on Bonaire = 749 per 100 000 of population.
# In 2015 there were 72 break-ins of vehicles at dive sites.
# Over the past 5 years 'miscellaneous' theft has decreased remarkably (no individual data on progression at dive sites)
Now let's look at other Dutch reports and evaluate it.
# In 2013 Caribisch Netwerk published "Crime celebrates high tide on Bonaire .... no-one saw this coming." What!!?? Curacao had been in a crime wave for nearly 3 decades. Tourist were reporting increased thefts in Bonaire in the mid-1990s. This smacks of "lovely island; happy people; sound tourism industry; can't really be a problem; therefore let's stick our heads in the sand".
# Three years later (2016) the same Caribisch Netwerk reports "Tourists aren't safe and we, the Chinese small business owners, are not either". Three years and it has got worse? Who else has their head in the "happy people" sand?
# Also in 2013
Trix van Bennekom, Dutch freelance writer on Carib matters wrote "I am concerned that violence is becoming more and more associated with robberies". She blames it on the massive influx of rich Dutch permanent residents. More "the wealth gap PC reasoning"? More "happy people" denial?
In July 2014, Bearing Point - Government News' reported that "the Bonaire police are
beginning with an offensive against the wave of assaults on the island." And? Why 'begin' only in 2014? Because the police apparently have a staff shortage. Really? Let us see how the Bonaire police ratio of
749 per 100 000 of population compares to other countries (source - Wiki):
Bahamas - 848; Antigua - 733; Barbados - 497; Belize - 415; Bermuda - 729; Cayman - 625; Costa Rica - 337; Netherlands - 328. So this 'official' excuse of 'police under-staffing' is almost pure bovine doo-doo.
It seems that the Bonaire police focus specifically on cases where violence is involved. Logical ... right? But with their 'understaffing', does this mean that the rest get scant attention? It certainly seems so. So how about a blitz exercise with help from other Dutch islands?
Three decades ago the Rotterdam police chief got into hot water for stating publicly that Antillians were responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime in his city. Is this where the head-in-the-sand attitude starts - Dutch PC? The chief's claim was supported in the book "Minorities, Migrants, and Crime: Diversity and Similarity Across Europe" edited by Ineke Haen Marshall, so his 'crime' was that he STATED this fact. I lived in Holland for 10 years. I can fully believe that.
So after 3 days of scratching I can conclude that there is no consensus as to the reasons for the high crime rate. But it is almost impossible not to conclude that after 2 decades of warnings, police inefficiency has to be at least partially involved.