Pushing the Limits

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Mike seemed to sense this on that project and had his reel not been there I wonder if they even would have attempted to go past the 165 restriction again.
I never heard Mike say before the dive that he thought our work was over. He definitely said it afterward. As I remember (with my admittedly fallible memory), he decided that the cave "did not go" (i.e., there was no point in further exploration) on the fatal dive and was returning to let us know when he ran into Shane.
 
I never heard Mike say before the dive that he thought our work was over. He definitely said it afterward. As I remember (with my admittedly fallible memory), he decided that the cave "did not go" (i.e., there was no point in further exploration) on the fatal dive and was returning to let us know when he ran into Shane.
I may have misheard, I was listening and not watching the video on a drive to Orlando. I thought he was going to retrieve his reel on that fatal dive. I may have assumed he felt further exploration was over the way he described the system beyond the 140 restriction as simply to difficult to be a recreational site.

Is there any video of what this system looks like?
 
He said that when he was doing exploration in difficult, silty conditions, he always prefered to be solo. He felt a buddy was more likely to be a liability than a help. The next day he went to the depths of the cave with Shane.

As the video shows, he told Shane to stop at a certain point, and that is the point that Shane exceeded his limitations by going on. My speculation is that Mike knew that Shane was exceeding those limitations, and by telling him to stop there, he was subtly (not blatantly) telling him, "Going further is, in my opinion, beyond your limitations."

So, perhaps one way of knowing you are going to far is recognizing when more experienced people give you subtle hints that they think you are going beyond your limitations but don't want to be impolite enough to spell it out clearly.

Could it be that Mike told Shane to stop not because of his limitations but because of what I bolded in your post above. Mike knew there was likely one restriction after another and having a buddy following you increases the likely hood of getting trapped. One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the affect of nerves on the psychology of the diver. I think its possible to get into a situation that is within your ability and training but for whatever reason you lose your nerve which can lead to panic. I've been in that situation before; Not to the point of panicking but there was notably higher anxiety. An unknown cave, the depth, multiple restrictions, possibly unstable rocks, silt conditions -- I can see all of this playing on the mind of Shane, not to mention the guilt of disregarding your buddy's signal and plan.
 
Exley's Razor, Page 16:

https://nsscds.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/UWS Vol 22 No 2_OCR.pdf

It's relatively easy to survive a "pinnacle dive" when everything goes well. The problem is when stuff goes tits up, that's when skill and ability need to come into play.

I'd argue that the only way to really keep yourself in check is by having a healthy bit of respect for the dive and being able to be completely honest with yourself about your own limitations (skill, mental/physical fitness, etc). It takes a fair amount of self-control to be able to whip out the thumb before hitting the water, mostly because of a fear of repercussions or threat to ego (oh, Joe won't dive with me again if I bail on him today, etc). Teammates need to be supportive when a person decides to forego a dive; one of my closest friends (who has done some frigging incredible dives) has pulled the thumb on me because work/life/stress got in the way and he wasn't mentally prepared to dive, and I have done the same to him. We have the greatest respect for each other for having that level of self awareness.

In my opinion, most people are unable to be completely honest with themselves. It gets really bad when they are surrounded by enablers, just look at the Doc Deep fiasco from a few years ago as a prime example of how that can turn out.
 
I may have misheard, I was listening and not watching the video on a drive to Orlando. I thought he was going to retrieve his reel on that fatal dive. I may have assumed he felt further exploration was over the way he described the system beyond the 140 restriction as simply to difficult to be a recreational site.
That is the one part of his description in the vieo that does not match my memory, but I certailny did not have access to what he was thinking then.[/quote]
Is there any video of what this system looks like?
Where they were, the only video was from Shane's GoPro, and it would not show much. I was working in the upper part of the cave once when the two of them came up from below, bringing their silt with them. Mike passed me, and I never knew it. I saw a Shearwater computer near my face, but I could not see the arm it was on--it was Shane's. That's what a video would show.
 
Where they were, the only video was from Shane's GoPro, and it would not show much. I was working in the upper part of the cave once when the two of them came up from below, bringing their silt with them. Mike passed me, and I never knew it. I saw a Shearwater computer near my face, but I could not see the arm it was on--it was Shane's. That's what a video would show.
Yes, I'm just wondering if anyone had video on inital entry to get an idea of what this system looks like, before doing work and silting it up.
 
In the video Mike said that Shane had bailed out and ran out of gas before he could make it out. My questions are: (1) do they know if Shane had trouble with his CCR that forced him to go on OC, and (2) if you are in a pre-panic or panic state does the higher WOB cause you to switch to bailout for easier WOB even when your CCR is working perfectly?

Another question. Mike said he was glad he hadn't retrieved his reel. If he had he thought he wouldn't have made it out. I don't understand this. What difference does it make whether you are rewinding the reel as you're making it out or, leave it in place and following the line out. In either case you are still following the line out.
 
I think pretty much everyone believes they are being honest with themselves, even the ones that aren't.

It's like going to FaceBook and seeing someone you think is stunningly irrational posting the familiar "You can't fix stupid" meme, knowing he or she is talking about you.

Ha! I guess I'd have to agree. I'm a pretty realistic, pragmatic person...usually the voice of reason. There's got to be one in the family, right?
 
Except that most divers don't think of diving as something dangerous. In fact if you go into almost any dive shop you'll probably be told or see materials telling you how extremely safe diving is.

Hmmmm...I hadn't thought of that, but that's probably right for a lot of people. In my short time diving, I have been lucky enough to have gotten to know IRL some extremely experienced divers (tech divers and cave divers specifically) who readily acknowledge that dangers that exist. Plus I watch a lot of diving videos and spend a lot of time here, so maybe my view is skewed toward understanding that the risks are real. I also have a very good friend who reminds me frequently about how dangerous it is....ha ha - he's afraid of the ocean, so his view is very skewed. He's certain I'll be eaten by sharks.
 
Here’s the process I use to gauge whether I’m biting off more than I can chew.

1) Identify risks in the intended profile by both probability and severity. Some logical categories below:

- Diver physiological problems.
- Diver judgment (based on training, skill and experience)
- Necessary equipment on hand.
- Equipment failure.
- Sealife encounter.
- Subsurface conditions (currents, vis, water temp, etc).
- Terrain (natural / manmade).
- Current / anticipated surface conditions.
- Crew proficiency.
- Vessel maintenance.
- Access to additional support (communications and medical facilities)

2) Determine measures to mitigate the risks.

3) Develop a plan to implement the mitigation measures.

4) Monitor conditions during preparation phase and during conduct of the dive.

5) Take actions to adjust measures to mitigate risks to an acceptable level. Communicate adjustments with others.


It’s important to monitor for group think. To avoid that, I proactively ask members to identify their biggest concern. This helps coax concerns out of less experienced divers and helps me find the guy who says, “No concerns”. They’re the ones to worry about more, IMO. Less experienced guys will be relieved to have a voice and seasoned guys will think through the dive and nominate the most likely risk from their perspective.

If diving solo, the burden of analysis and mitigation only increases. Personally, I wouldn’t blink about dropping down to 55+ meters for a dive with a mix of 18/45 knowing that I’m fit, methodical and will naturally minimize my activities on a solo profile. Probability of something going wrong? Minimal. Severity of something going wrong? Potentially catastrophic. So, I’ll trim back on my profile and live to dive another day with buddies. Maybe instead of deep exploration I’ll switch over to my regular air twinset and go for that 4 hour horizontal exploration dive with a scooter to explore the coastline at no deeper than 10m.
 

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