Cancel a Key Largo Trip from 9/3 - 9/7?

[Chrisso]

My wife and I are planning a trip for these days but it's looking like we might not be able to dive due to the expected heavy rains and flooding. We are thinking about canceling--I would love to get some local insight on the decision.
TIA
Mike

 

[munkispank]

I'm sure someone form key largo will chime in, but I'm over on the southwest coast and our local weather people have basically said we arLooking at 3-5 inches of rain, which is what we've had on random weeks this summer anyway. I cancelled a diving trip to Fort Lauderdale this weekend, but that was before Ericka dissolved. There's a chance she could strengthen, but I probably would cancel for later next week.

 

[Cajuncru Diver]

We are currently in Key Largo diving with Rainbow Reef Dive Center. Conditions were very good yesterday, sunshine, light breeze and calm seas. Today the weather was still relatively good, the waves were less than 2' and diving was comfortable although vis was not as good as usual. Forecast for tomorrow is not favorable. Probably wind gust and heavy rain, however I believe that by the time you are scheduled to arrive that system will be out of the area and not affect diving.

 

[luscioman]

I would not cancel at this point. It looks like it will be good. Wookie should chime in what he thinks..

[SIZE=+1]THURSDAY[/SIZE] SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 1 FOOT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS

 

[reefman]

here's the extended forecast for the keys from 9/3 thru 9/5 as well as the predicted wind speed/direction. the NWS forecast does not extend beyond 9/5 as of this evening. windfinder provides the marine predictions. the remnants of ERIKA are a non issue. not an exact science but a helpful guide,,,,,,,,,,,

Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

	Wednesday, Sep 02	Thursday, Sep 03
Local time	2am	5am	8am	11am	2pm	5pm	8pm	11pm	2am	5am	8am	11am	2pm	5pm	8pm	11pm
Wind direction	107 ese	125 se	117 ese	102 ese	102 ese	100 e	86 e	81 e	98 e	105 ese	119 ese	106 ese	114 ese	125 se	117 ese	106 ese
Wind speed (mph)	14	13	10	12	10	12	10	9	9	10	8	8	9	9	8	7
Wind gusts (mph)	16	15	13	12	10	12	10	10	10	12	10	8	9	9	8	8
Wave direction	131 se	128 se	127 se	127 se	128 se	128 se	129 se	129 se	128 se	127 se	127 se	126 se	127 se	125 se	126 se	126 se
Wave height (ft)	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Wave period (s)	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3
Cloud cover	37	32	32	40	27	18	23	42	44	30	40	82	85	61	54	68
Precipitation (in/3h)
Air pressure (hPa)	1016	1015	1016	1017	1016	1014	1015	1016	1014	1013	1014	1015	1013	1012	1013	1014
Air temperature (°F)	86	84	84	86	87	86	86	86	84	84	86	86	87	86	86	86

Local date	Friday, Sep 04	Saturday, Sep 05
Local time	2am	5am	8am	11am	2pm	5pm	8pm	11pm	2am	5am	8am	11am	2pm	5pm	8pm	11pm
Wind direction	120 ese	123 ese	126 se	147 sse	144 se	139 se	112 ese	94 e	118 ese	138 se	156 sse	137 se	111 ese	113 ese	105 ese	109 ese
Wind speed (mph)	8	6	2	3	7	10	7	6	7	6	3	2	5	10	8	6
Wind gusts (mph)	9	7	3	3	7	10	7	7	7	7	5	2	5	10	8	7
Wave direction	126 se	126 se	127 se	127 se	127 se	127 se	134 se	157 sse	162 sse	162 sse	166 sse	168 sse	168 sse	169 s	165 sse	166 sse
Wave height (ft)	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
Wave period (s)	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Cloud cover	72	76	81	86	77	49	55	77	75	57	77	90	74	33	32	17
Precipitation (in/3h)	0.04
Air pressure (hPa)	1012	1011	1012	1013	1012	1011	1012	1014	1012	1012	1013	1014	1014	1012	1014	1015
Air temperature (°F)	84	84	86	86	87	86	86	86	84	84	86	86	87	86	86	86

Local date	Sunday, Sep 06	Monday, Sep 07
Local time	2am	5am	8am	11am	2pm	5pm	8pm	11pm	2am	5am	8am	11am	2pm	5pm	8pm	11pm
Wind direction	129 se	126 se	52 ne	69 ene	102 ese	117 ese	128 se	138 se	183 s	236 sw	313 nw	344 nnw	121 ese	151 sse	179 s	218 sw
Wind speed (mph)	5	2	2	3	6	7	5	6	2	2	3	2	3	5	3	3
Wind gusts (mph)	5	3	2	3	6	7	5	6	3	2	3	2	3	5	5	3
Wave direction	164 sse	166 sse	160 sse	160 sse	161 sse	149 sse	158 sse	166 sse	156 sse	157 sse	154 sse	153 sse	151 sse	141 se	150 sse	159 sse
Wave height (ft)	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
Wave period (s)	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Cloud cover	34	61	53	35	43	70	72	37	52	45	59	99	94	70	80	68
Precipitation (in/3h)						0.08	0.08				0.08		0.04	0.04	0.28	0.04
Air pressure (hPa)	1014	1014	1014	1015	1015	1013	1014	1015	1013	1013	1014	1015	1013	1012	1012	1013
Air temperature (°F)	84	84	84	86	87	86	86	84	84	84	82	84	86	86	84	84

reefman
key largo

 

[Johnoly]

...-I would love to get some local insight on the decision.

This is just my humble opinion, with backup links.

* Top side you have zero problems. 9/3 and on, it's the typical Florida weather with a short shower every other day in the late afternoon well after your morning dives.

* Even your boat rides out to the best sights are going to be really good. Look at windfinder's wave height but also duration (swell) and it's better than normal for September. Wind, waves & weather forecast Molasses Reef - Windfinder

* So rain is nothing, waves are nothing, swell is nothing. That leaves Viz and Viz alone to consider. Outside of the 3 just mentioned, the 3 most prominent other effects to viz are the gulf viz and the current that carries it and if the army corp is totally dumping Lk Okeechobee thru gate S79. S79 dumping would need to be all 8 open gates for 2 weeks to dump enough crud to effect Largo and even then a strong gulf stream could clean it out. Below is a link to the "LIVE" gate openings and you can see they are still closed tight or pulsing (opening/closing slightly) to clean out sediment.

Lastly would be a gulf swell, but even this storm is not likely to produce any "tidal surge" (primary swell) because it just doesn't have the strength. The wave3 models also say that and below is a link also.

In short, I'd say you might find some of the most perfect conditions for diving next weekend, no way would I cancel. I'm scheduled to dive further up that coast on 9/4 and I was kinda hoping we had BIGGER waves to move more of the lobster into the shallows, but that's just me. Have a great Labor Day weekend vacation !

Links Okeechobee gate openings, Look for S79 which is eight huge 12ft wide/12ft high gates in Fort Myers on the FL west coast http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/pls/portal/realtime.pkg_rr.proc_rr?p_op=COASTAL

Wave III Click on the primary swell to see it's zero or nothing next week
NWW3 Product Viewer

 

[Chugwhump]

Come on down.
The water is warm.
The seas will cooperate.
The beer is cold.

Chug
Flooding?

 

[CajunDiva]

Don't cancel! I am here now and the weather is improving. Diving will be back on schedule Tuesday, if not before. We plan to dive thru Wednesday

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[mselenaous]

Come on down. We are diving thus week with a guest.

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[seadweller]

Come on down , the weather is fine . It looks like the Labor day weekend
will be a busy one !Sea Dwellers Dive Center of Key Largo - Florida Keys Diving