There is, within recreational diving limits and situations, really only one reason to carry a pony:
When there is a reasonable chance that you will be unable to safely and completely carry out an air sharing scenario with your buddy at any point during your dive plan.
What drives that "reasonable" chance is of course rather varriable, from an un-reliable or simply unknown buddies to diving conditions that might render a long duration close quarters contact difficult (high current on a drift dive for example)
I understand what you are trying to say but I don't believe you are 100% correct. Solo diving (for those properly trained, equipped and experienced) also requires some form of air source redundancy. In this instance there is no buddy for air sharing.