One more false alarm, more messed up vacations.

[Dave Dillehay]

As you may know by now, Gustav has passed over Cuba and is on its way to do mischief elsewhere. And once again the computer models have done a very good job of predicting its path which was NEVER aimed at Cozumel. However, because of the hype of the media that occurs every time a hurricane, or even the threat of a hurricane, happens anywhere in the Caribbean we have again seen many divers suffer the costs of canceling trips needlessly.

And even thought the hurricane passed just 150 miles away we have had nothing but calm seas and great diving all along--not even any rain! But the hurricanes do keep the cruise ships away and not all of us see that as a bad impact on Cozumel. Indeed, every one diving in Cozumel is having a great time with the best conditions ever.

Is there a lesson to be learned in this event? I hope so.

For those of you who have not read our discussion on Cozumel and Hurricanes, you should. It can be found at Aldora Divers of Cozumel


Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

 

[ianr33]

Hype? Tell that to 1600 dead people in New Orleans.

 

[Christi]

Hype? Tell that to 1600 dead people in New Orleans.

No disrespect to New Orleans or wherever Gustav makes final landfall....they are in for a terrible storm and my prayers are with them; but with all due respect...Dave is talking about Cozumel in this post, not NOLA...so let's not take his post out of context.

Cozumel was never REALLY in the predicted path of Gustav, there was only a very small chance of it coming here. As Dave said, the forecasters have been very accurate with this storm's track...but it seems like anytime there is a storm in the Caribbean, people start rushing to put Cozumel or X place in the panic zone. We're all a little gun shy after Wilma, but we also know that Wilma was not your typical hurricane and that ALL Caribbean hurricanes don't end up on our doorstep. We have to watch them carefully, of course...but when a storm is five or six days out, you can't tell where it's going to go. I think I can speak for most islanders, when I say that once hurricane season rolls around, we're always prepared to prepare for the storm WHEN the time comes...but not needlessly before then.

As I said from the beginning...we needed to watch this storm and be cautious...but not make rush judgments about canceling trips, pulling boats out of the water, boarding up, etc. The recommendation made, based on the predicted position of the storm (predicted landfall midday Saturday WEST of us), was to wait until Friday to make travel decisions for the weekend...and I am very happy that I (and the forecasters) was correct.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Dear ianr,

I suspect that you have not read the discussion of Cozumel and Hurricanes mentioned in my post. The point of all this is that the media and perhaps many people think of the Caribbean as a small sea, with huge island eating monster storms roaming around each summer. The fact is that it is a big ocean and that the reality for Cozumel is-- the destructive part of hurricanes is actually quite small (If you can't find time to read the document mentioned I can elaborate as to why).

In addition, the mathematical models used to predict the direction and impact zone of hurricanes have improved dramatically over the last decade and almost always are right on...especially 3 to 4 days out. Never did they predict any hit on Cozumel and we have had great diving all week. On the other hand, a properly informed diver would have been nuts to fly to Jamaica or the Caymans.

To compare Cozumel to NOLA is a pretty far reach. If we KNOW that a big hurricane has a chance of hitting us we either hunker down or get out, you might say we are educated! Indeed, with Wilma in 2005 (the strongest hurricane ever measured) the storm centered over Cozumel for 36 hours and there was only one fatality (cause:stupidity), and the island was back in full operation within 30 days.

I present all of this, not in a greedy way as most of our costs are variable, that means if I have less divers then we incur less costs, and the divers will come back when they can anyway. But for those who have to cancel or reschedule airlines and hotels, their loss may be marginally significant, not to mention the problems of rescheduling vacation times, house sitters, etc.

So the point is, I think it prudent for everyone coming to the Caribbean during hurricane season to make educated decisions about the risks of hurricanes and the disruption of their dive vacation. That is all.

Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

 

[Missdirected]

Hype? Tell that to 1600 dead people in New Orleans.

I have to agree with "hype". I was actually personally offended a couple weeks ago when one of the local weather forecasters picked one little spaghetti string, that didn't fall in line with the majority of the models and went with it. Making it sound as though that was going to be the path and it was coming right for us To me it seemed unethical. Follow and report what the computer models are saying - don't "juice" it up, which is what they do here. To me, it worries people unnecessarily and too many follow the local news as though it is gospel.

 

[tboxcar]

The press seems to sensationalize many events these days from natural catastrophes to political campaigns; nothing is ‘fair and balanced’ any more. The press gets onto a story and they ‘milk it’ for all its worth. And if it’s not going the way ‘they like it’
They ‘spin it’ a bit more, so it sells.

 

[diverrex]

We arrived Saturday and had sun all day, and two great days of diving Sun. & Mon. The media and some individuals do hype the threat of hurricanes needlessly. Yes you need to pay attention and be cautious, but it is a large area in the Caribbean. I'm very willing to face the low staistical odds to come to Coz during hurricane season. We're having a great time this week, those that cancelled have missed out.

 

[PerroneFord]

Hurricane forecasting and predicting is more accurate now than at any other time in history. But it remains just that. Models and predictions.

Weather sometimes just doesn't follow the script. And I will guarantee you, that the first time a cruise ship ignores the "hype" and sails into Cozumel when a hurricane veers off the predicted path toward the island is the LAST time that cruise operator will visit Cozumel. Or any other destination.

The loss of life would be catastrophic and indefensible under US and likely international law. I realize there is a financial impact to both the divers and the destinations, but do we REALLY want to start telling vacationers to ignore the hurricane services (even the non-commercial ones) and simply go to their chosen destinations?

I call that playing with fire, or tempting fate. But to each their own.

 

[Paco II]

Who in this thread said that? Wasn't the OP referring to the "hype of the media"?

...but do we REALLY want to start telling vacationers to ignore the hurricane services (even the non-commercial ones)...

 

[Oside Jimc]

Hype? Tell that to 1600 dead people in New Orleans.

1600 dead people? N.O. didn't even suffer 1600 dead rats from Gustav