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Mawg

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Location
Clear Lake, Tx.
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I was looking on Crown Weather Services this morning and I see there is another Tropical Disturbance beginning to form in the same area that Paula came from. I'm scheduled to fly in on thursday but............ Anyone have info. that is more current/specific than what I read on CWS this morning?
 
.synopsis...low pres 1011 mb along the coast of honduras near
15.5n83w will drift n to near 17.5n83.5w during the next 24
hours and then meander toward the sw and into central america
during the next few days. The low has some potential to develop
into a tropical cyclone. Weakening frontal boundary across n
portions of tropical n atlc waters will shift along or just s of
20n through wed and gradually dissipate.
 
I was looking on Crown Weather Services this morning and I see there is another Tropical Disturbance beginning to form in the same area that Paula came from. I'm scheduled to fly in on thursday but............ Anyone have info. that is more current/specific than what I read on CWS this morning?

Most of the models don't have it developing into anything more than a tropical depression (which is nothing) and none of the models have it coming anywhere near Cozumel
 
Dr.Master's discussions are there too: Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
Steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to, and how much shear might affect the storm. By Saturday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of 99L, forcing the storm on a generally westward track. This should allow 99L to find an environment with less shear. The GFDL and HWRF model predicts a more west-northwestward track, with 99L passing through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Sunday or Monday as a hurricane. The GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models predict a more west-southwesterly path, with 99L making landfall in Belize Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday; I'd put these odds at 80%, and expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Thursday.
I like the path/route with the white line ! Would be nice to send one BACK across the ocean in the opposite direction for once :)
What white line? Several have gone back to sea this year, some bad ones really.
Most of the models don't have it developing into anything more than a tropical depression (which is nothing) and none of the models have it coming anywhere near Cozumel
[-]Oops, now a model has it going up the Cozumel channel. :shocked2: [/-]

Of course, it's just too early to tell what it will do. We all knew it was hurricane season with some travel interruptions possible. Best wishes to those who booked anyway. I do for my BD every year anyway. Had to retreat once but still do it.

Auto updating map if things work correctly...

at201099_model.gif

Edit: Now known as TD 19 and tracking toward Bay Islands & Belize...

at201019_5day.gif
 
Last edited:
Looks like the computer guesses map is not auto updating. Hate it when that happens. Just upgraded to Tropical Storm Richard, Cat-1 by Saturday, slow moving which give more time to build, and certainly headed for the peninsula with a possible landing anywhere from Belize north. Everything from Roatan & Honduras coast to Cuba is in the possible zone of hate for now, but much could change as always.

I hope this one auto updates ok....
at201019_model_zoom.gif
 
Most of the models don't have it developing into anything more than a tropical depression (which is nothing) and none of the models have it coming anywhere near Cozumel

NHC is making it cat1 now, Masters puts cat3 probability at 30% (his estimate) and GFDL is currently taking it squarely over Coz and the NHC has shifted its 'consensus' track prediction northwards, away from Belize, to smack in the middle of Q. Roo.

So, while there's still a lot of Ocean and coastline out there, don't be so quick to write this one off. The trend is currently towards predictions of intensification and shifting the track towards Coz rather than away.

I believe there was also an Invest that parked over the BVI (IIRC) this year and caused massive rain and flooding, before it went out to sea and spun up into a hurricane, so don't write off the destructive potential of a simple TD either (although storms don't seem to like to 'park' for very long in your neighborhood for whatever reason).

Still, tomorrow and Saturday we'll know more, no need for anyone to change vacation plans this far ahead of the storm, it may not affect Coz at all, yadda, yadda, yadda.
 
NHC is making it cat1 now, Masters puts cat3 probability at 30% (his estimate) and GFDL is currently taking it squarely over Coz and the NHC has shifted its 'consensus' track prediction northwards, away from Belize, to smack in the middle of Q. Roo.

So, while there's still a lot of Ocean and coastline out there, don't be so quick to write this one off. The trend is currently towards predictions of intensification and shifting the track towards Coz rather than away.

I agree that we need to watch this -and we are - but only one model GFDL brings in near Cozumel and it is even bringing it south of the island - all others are WELL south down in/near Belize - hundreds of miles south of Cozumel.

Still predicted to be no stronger than a Cat 1 and from Jeff MAsters 3:30pm update:

"The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 46%. Cozumel, Mexico is given a 42% chance (of Tropical storm force winds - not hurricane winds).

Still, tomorrow and Saturday we'll know more, no need for anyone to change vacation plans this far ahead of the storm, it may not affect Coz at all, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Completely agree - and completely agree that we need to stay on top of this one just like we did with Paula last week - but lets please not state predictions that weren't made (that Coz is in the path for a direct hit- that is not the case at this point).
 

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