Tropical Storm Songda (local: Chedeng)

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http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0411web.txt

WTPN31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 136.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 136.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.6N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 11.0N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 11.4N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 11.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.1N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.1N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.9N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 136.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 22/06Z PGTW SATELLITE ANALYSIS FIX AND INTERPOLATED FROM MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP AND PALAU, JUST EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (220446Z AMSRE) SUPPORT AN INTENSITY AT THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW (THOUGH IMPROVING), REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. TS SONGDA IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND GFDN, WHICH ARE AT THE OUTER EXTENTS OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS (FAVORING ECMWF, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND EGRR) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// NNNN



20110522.0101.mtsat2.x.vis1km.04WSONGDA.45kts-989mb-99N-1368E.100pc.jpg
 
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DevonDiver
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Bicol braces for 'Chedeng' | ABS-CBN News | Latest Philippine Headlines, Breaking News, Video, Analysis, Features

MANILA, Philippines - The Bicol region is bracing for Tropical Storm "Chedeng," which is expected to enter the country's area of responsibility either Sunday night or Monday morning.

State weather bureau PAGASA earlier announced that parts of the Bicol region will feel the brunt of Chedeng (international name Songda).

The storm is also expected to affect parts of Eastern Visayas.

While Chedeng is still in the Pacific Ocean, disaster officials in Albay laid out evacuation plans for residents who might be affected once the tropical storm hits.

PAGASA, in a weather advisory, said that as of 10 a.m. Sunday, Chedeng was last spotted 1,070 kilometers east of Northern Mindanao.

It is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 90 kph.

The storm is expected to move west northwest at 11 kph. - with a report from ANC
 
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DevonDiver
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Bicol braces for 'Chedeng' | ABS-CBN News | Latest Philippine Headlines, Breaking News, Video, Analysis, Features

MANILA, Philippines - The Bicol region is bracing for Tropical Storm "Chedeng," which is expected to enter the country's area of responsibility either Sunday night or Monday morning.

State weather bureau PAGASA earlier announced that parts of the Bicol region will feel the brunt of Chedeng (international name Songda).

The storm is also expected to affect parts of Eastern Visayas.

While Chedeng is still in the Pacific Ocean, disaster officials in Albay laid out evacuation plans for residents who might be affected once the tropical storm hits.

PAGASA, in a weather advisory, said that as of 10 a.m. Sunday, Chedeng was last spotted 1,070 kilometers east of Northern Mindanao.

It is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 90 kph.

The storm is expected to move west northwest at 11 kph. - with a report from ANC
 
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DevonDiver
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Situation overview...
Tropical storm songda (04w) is moving northwest at 6 mph and is
expected to make a slight turn to the west-northwest as it gradually
intensifies. The center of songda continues to move away from both
yap and ngulu islands with conditions expected to slowly improve for
both locations through today.

...yap and ngulu...

.precautionary/preparedness actions...
Stay in suitable shelter away from the shore...protect yourself from
damaging winds...heavy rain and dangerous lightning...and make sure
you have adequate food and drinking water available until winds
subside. Small boats and craft should be secured and remain in port.

...wind information...
Damaging winds are still ongoing at yap and ngulu. Tropical storm
force winds of 30 to 40 mph from south and southeast are expected at
yap and winds of 30 to 40 mph from south and southwest are expected
at ngulu until noon. Winds should decrease during the day and fall
below tropical storm force by afternoon. Damaging winds may still
occur later this afternoon in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

...storm surge and surf information...
Offshore seas of 8 to 11 feet with surf heights of 10 to 13 feet on
exposed shorelines are expected today. Minor inundation is possible
for east and south facing exposures on yap and south and west facing
exposures on ngulu.

...other storm effects...
Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms will produce
additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts
through today...resulting in flooding of poor-drainage and low-lying
areas. Heaviest rainfall is expected during morning hours before
showers begin to gradually diminish this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to linger into monday.
 
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