Tropical Storm Bertha...

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Tractor Tom

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Looks like we have a tropical storm to deal with next weekend. I'm watching it on Tropical Weather Information and the forecast so far is OK, but if she speeds up, or swings west rather than north, we may have an issue.

Tractor Tom in Okeechobee
 
The projections were for her to veer more north, but have changed a little...

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:41 AM EDT on July 05, 2008 Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

Tropical Storm Bertha has maintained it's strength overnight, but is having trouble with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 25°C--one degree below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Bertha, but last night's pass confirmed winds of at least 40mph. Satellite estimates of Bertha's strength have consistently put the storm's strength at 50 mph over the past day. The storm is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear.

The forecast
The models are now more confident that Bertha will not take a turn to the north east of Bermuda, with two models--the UKMET and NOGAPS--calling for the storm to pass very near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night, even though the current official track keeps Bertha well north of the islands. Bertha may be large enough to bring tropical storm force winds 100-200 miles from the center by Tuesday. A threat to the East Coast of the U.S. is now possible, with such an event most likely to occur about 7-10 days from now. It is also possible that high wind shear will tear apart Bertha (as predicted by the ECMWF model), or that the storm will recurve to the north just east of North Carolina, missing the U.S. The long range track of Bertha is highly uncertain, and it is too early to speculate how likely each of these scenarios is.

By Sunday morning, Bertha will be over SSTs of 26°C, which will warm to 27°C by Monday and 28°C Tuesday. this should allow Bertha to intensify to near Category 1 hurricane strength. However, by Tuesday, wind shear is expected to increase to 20 knots and remain high for several days, as Bertha encounters a branch of the subtropical jet stream. The higher shear should weaken the storm.

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 05, 2008

Bertha has changed little in organization since this morning. The
cyclone continues to maintain an area of convection near and to the
north of the center. Dvorak intensity estimates are a unanimous 45
kt...which remains the initial intensity. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for strengthening along the
projected path. Bertha is currently over SSTs of about 25 degrees
celsius...but the SSTs will be increasing by about one degree per
day during the next 3 days. Shear is expected to remain low at
least during the next 72 hours...but projected to increase a little
thereafter. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory which showed Bertha becoming a hurricane in about
3 days...followed by little change in strength at days 4 and 5. The
intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the HWRF...
GFDL...lgem and SHIPS models.

Bertha continues racing westward with an initial motion of 275/18.
A general west to west-northwestward motion should continue for the
next couple of days. Thereafter...there is a very large spread in
the model guidance. The models which maintain a deeper and stronger
Bertha turn the cyclone more northwestward in response to a
weakness in the ridge currently over the central Atlantic.
Meanwhile...the models that depict a weaker and shallower cyclone
continue to track it westward south of the low-level ridge over the
Atlantic. The NHC forecast track assumes that Bertha will remain
deep enough to decelerate due to the weaker ridge. The new
forecast track is just a little south of the previous advisory
through 72 hours...but similar thereafter...and in best agreement
with the ECMWF...NOGAPS...and the GUNA model consensus.

It is too early to determine if Bertha will ever pose a threat
to any land areas.

Also see: National Hurricane Center
 

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The models are bringing to my front door .... Will wipe out beach diving....we are sure to get the ground swells
 
but as of 11 pm 4 of the 5 computer models on weather underground show it going north/northwest!!! :confused:

I am keeping an ever watchful eye on this, as I head to the Daytona Beach area mid next week to see my Dad! I was pretty sure that I would be getting there early enough in the hurricane season to miss all this stuff. . . ??? Just hope it goes north/northwest and away from land! :shakehead:

Take care, Maggi
 
The forecast is to probly be Cat 1 by Tuesday, but even by Thursday will still be at sea with any luck. Next weekend is iffy...
 
steering currents are suggesting a possibility for an even more southerly course below cuba:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlm/atlantic/dlm1.GIF

there's a high pressure system in the north atlantic which is tending to push the track south.

a more southerly course would also keep it away from wind shear and promote intensification and would probably put it on a course for the yucutan.

the good news for cozumel and the yucutan is that even if it does veer south there's a huge amount of wind shear over that area right now which should tear it up quite a bit if it does head that way and the wind shear persists.
 
I suppose it's that High that has some forecasters thinking more southerly than before at least. Projecting any weather 5 days out is a best-guess, but based on such - I'd hate to be arriving in Exuma or the T&Cs Saturday.

Wonder how much this could be affecting Key Largo and the SB Invasion if it stuck with this course...??
 

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Projecting any weather 5 days out is a best-guess, but based on such - I'd hate to be arriving in Exuma or the T&Cs Saturday.

Wonder how much this could be affecting Key Largo and the SB Invasion if it stuck with this course?

Y'all got an Inclement Weather back-up plan...?
 

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Scuba divers are supposed to have an inclement weather plan? Your going to get wet, so what difference does it make if it rains. Water spouts, just mean an extra dive site. Rough seas is just combing bungee jumping and diving together. You know what they all say "Its all fun and games till someone looses an eye. Then it is just fun". Seriously, I need it to turn away from Florida or at least remain a small Hurrricane or TS? If it keeps drawing a bead on North Florida may result in me having to cancel. Grrr.
 
Hurricane Bertha threads merged.
 
https://www.shearwater.com/products/perdix-ai/

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