No-Flow Safety Factor / Margin

For a cave dive without flow, what turn strategy do you use?

  • Thirds: Safety Factor = 2

    Votes: 5 38.5%
  • Thirds + 100 psi: Safety Factor = 2.27 (3600 psi start) or 2.33 (3000 psi start)

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Thirds + 200 psi: Safety Factor = 2.6 (3600 psi start) or 2.75 (3000 psi start)

    Votes: 5 38.5%
  • Fourths: Safety Factor = 3

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Fifths: Safety Factor = 4

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sixths / Intro Divers🙂 : Safety Factor = 5 (or a margin of 150% after loss of gas)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (please elaborate in the comments)

    Votes: 1 7.7%

  • Total voters
    13

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inquis

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As we all know, one of the fundamental tenets of cave diving is to always have at least 2x the gas needed to exit. This obviously allows one to air-share in the event of one member's catastrophic loss of gas and is the basis for the Rule of Thirds: 1 in + 2 out = 3 total, assuming no flow. By design, your safety factor at the turn (call it S) is 2. (Or if you prefer to think of just the reserve, excluding what you need to exit, that would be S-1.) My understanding is that Thirds was actually devised assuming a team of 3, but for air-sharing in a team of 2, you'd just barely make it... in theory.

I think everyone would agree this is fairly aggressive without the luxury of flow, so what do you do in that case? A common theme is to enter slow & casual and beeline for the exit if SHTF, but is that your only margin over Thirds? Some will increase the turn pressure by X psi on top of the casual entry (e.g., Thirds+100 psi would turn at 2500 psi for a 3600 psi start). Diving 4ths is another easy-to-compute option. Diving in a team of 3 would help, but I'm not sure that's always possible. Do you leverage the fact that the safety factor / margin is actually variable (the minimum is at the turn pressure but grows with proximity to the exit)? I'm curious what safety factor or rule you typically use in no-flow caves like Peacock or many places in Mexico. To keep it simple, let's assume exiting from the entry point and ignore any adjustments for tight passages, new teammates, separation/solo, etc.

For those who are interested, the safety factor including flow can be computed relatively simply using the ratio of entry to exit speed (call it V). For example, a flow of 10 fpm (not a stretch, as that's only 2 inches per second) and a no-flow swim speed of 40 fpm, that ratio V = (40-10) / (40+10) or V = 0.6. Denoting the penetration rule by P (i.e., 3 when diving Thirds), the safety factor is:
S = (P - 1) / V​

For Thirds in that modest flow (P=3 & V=0.6), the safety factor is 3.3. If you lose half your gas (either a total sidemount failure or donating to a teammate whose manifolded doubles died), it will be ~1.7. That means a 70% buffer against SAC increase or speed decrease (for whatever reason). Everyone knows you gain margin exiting with flow, but on the flip side without flow, you'd need to turn before Fourths (4.3 actually) to achieve this same buffer.

Does any of this make you want to bump up your no-flow conservatism, especially after considering it could be cut in half in the event of a failure? Is this a bit immaterial since you & buddy dive sidemount and Thirds? (In that case, there's a 50% margin for the team, assuming a single gas failure and no separation.) I'd love to hear what other thoughts you might have.


Sidenote 1:
Hopefully it's clear the above is for an open circuit dive. However for the CCR divers, an OC-equivalent safety factor for comparison would be 1 more than your BO strategy at normal SAC and flow-enhanced exit speed. If you plan on 1.5x the gas needed to exit including flow (giving a 50% margin for consumption increase or delays), S = 1+1.5 = 2.5. If you ignore flow in your BO calculations, but you do exit with flow, you'd bump up the BO factor by a factor of 1+Flow/Kick. E.g., if BO is 1.5x at a 40 fpm kicking speed, but there's a 10 fpm flow aiding your exit, the bonus factor would be 1.25, and the OC-equivalent safety factor would be S = 1 + 1.5*1.25 = 2.9. Feel free to cast a vote based on the closest OC-equivalent safety factor.

I think that on average, CCR divers tend to run larger safety factors than OC divers. Granted, the possibility of a hypercapnic event is a really good reason, but I've found myself wanting to bump up my OC conservatism after diving my Fathom for the last year & a half.


Sidenote 2:
The above may also give some insight into the commonly cited Rule of Sixths when OC diving a siphon. In that case, the speed ratio V will be greater than 1. For this minor 10 fpm siphon flow and the same 40 fpm kick speed, V = 1.67, resulting in a safety factor of 3. After an assumed failure, that would give a 50% margin against consumption or exit difficulties, which is perhaps reasonable. However, even Sixths would be inappropriate for a siphon flow of 17 fpm (and that 40 fpm kick speed). (That's a safety factor of 2 or equivalently zero margin after a failure.) At a minimum, I'd take a minute to hover and make sure that I hadn't been blown more than a couple of wingspans. Perhaps repeat a few times during the penetration as well.
 
A question designed for Florida divers using steels filled to 3600?
Not necessarily, as Thirds, etc. can be done in metric pretty easily. I apologize for not putting the metric equivalent of 206 bar (3000 psi / most AL tanks), 250 bar (3600 psi), and 7/14 bar adjustments(100/200 psi), but I thought most could convert easily enough. (14.5 psi per bar)

If you use a different increment (e.g., 10 bar), that'd be interesting, but I suspect it's close to one of the listed safety factors. If nothing else, put "Other" and let us know what the safety factor might be. For instance, if you typically have a 232 bar fill but you turn at 260 bar, the penetration factor would be P = 232 / (232-160) = 3.22 (which is actually pretty close to the +100 psi choice).
 
Have to confess I have not planned a dive on gas like this in pressure units in forever. The main reason is I almost never "swim until I turn around, then swim until I exit" either on OC or CCR for that matter. Every dive I do is somehow a working dive. In the most extreme example, I might only be 150ft into a cave, but I am taking notes and surveying for an hour and may stay vastly past 1/3rd of my gas cause its only 2 mins back to the surface or my deco gas.

The bottom line is I work in minutes x mean ATA x consumption rate to estimate how much gas I need to exit from any given point. I account for flow in the consumption rate. No flow, big easy cave, typically a consumption rate of 0.75. Tiny silty cave? consumption rate of 1 cfm. Tiny silty frigid siphon? Consumption rate of 1.5
 
I teach my students that thirds is reserved for 3 man teams so in the event of an OOG you can switch donors midway through the exit. For a 2 man team, penetration gas is based on thirds minus 200 psi (or thirds minus 15 bar). That produces a large safety factor.

Starting PSI: 3600
Penetration gas (thirds-200): 1000
Gas at turn: 2600
Exiting gas (thirds-200): 1000
Gas at exit ("emergency gas"): 1600

That's 600 psi more than you theoretically need to get a 2 person team out from max pen. It should provide enough extra gas to handle things like additional stress, etc. You can also go more conservative if you decide.
 
Cylinder configuration matters. If you are in a team of 2 in sidemount, you are planning with thirds you have more than factor 2 because you need to assume multiple catastrophic failures for one of the divers to lose all the gas— different for manifolded doubles.
 
If you are in a team of 2 in sidemount, you are planning with thirds you have more than factor 2 because you need to assume multiple catastrophic failures
I'd say you still have a factor of 2, but the team has a factor of 4 (as would a BM team prior to failure). However, I agree configuration matters, since the BM failure is potentially more expensive. Considering that in the strategy choice is a good thing. <sigh> That's the problem with these polls, all the combinations of choices quickly becomes unwieldy.
 
Thirds.

Two simultaneous major failures at max penetration isn’t really something I concern myself with too much.

Your risk tolerance might be different.
 
Cylinder configuration matters. If you are in a team of 2 in sidemount, you are planning with thirds you have more than factor 2 because you need to assume multiple catastrophic failures for one of the divers to lose all the gas— different for manifolded doubles.
You might have also dropped stages and then it gets even more interesting.
 
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