I99 shows potential off of the Carolinas

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DandyDon

Colonoscopy Advocate
ScubaBoard Supporter
Messages
53,628
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Location
One kilometer high on the Texas Central Plains
# of dives
500 - 999
One model suggests Florida...

at200799_model.gif
 
I99 is a 1007 mb low now.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
29N73W AT 05/0300 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 32N70W. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 69W-73W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N AND WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST.

I98 dissolved into a 1013mb low, but may wind up being absorbed by a tropical wave coming off of africa that could develop...
 
Well, the models finally all suggest the same general direction, but doesn't look like much more than rain in the Carolinas and Virginia...

at200799_model.gif
 
There's a tropical wave off africa which has potential to develop:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 20N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF
CYCLONIC TURNING. THE FIRST FEW METSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ENE
ALONG 7N38W 9N26W 13N20W. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOTED
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND ALSO FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
22W-26W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
The Real Gabrielle

Upgraded to TS...

at200707_windprob34.gif


at200707_model.gif
 

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