I98 ( Gabrielle? )

[lamont]

Having learned from my last poor call, I'm being a little more conservative, but 98 looks like it has a strong potential to develop to a named storm. Its another tropical wave which has come off of africa and should head over the warm carribean waters similar to Dean / Felix

From the Wunder blog:

98L
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has developed a closed circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. This disturbance has been labeled "98L" by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both develop 98L into a tropical storm, but keep it below hurricane strength. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. Given 98L's more northerly starting location, it may eventually affect Puerto Rico.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=774&tstamp=200709

One thing that i've been reading on the forums on wunderground is apparently the paths that Dean and Felix are taking are *highly* unusual for storms this late in the season. Its more typical to see tropical waves coming off of africa which enter the carribean and turn into hurricanes to take a northerly jog and put the whole gulf coast of the US at risk from texas to florida. Either something very odd is going on this year, or we should see a reversion to the mean here and start seeing that kind of behavior in these storms...

 

[DandyDon]

Yeah, about 10 years ago, I flew to St.Lucia in August for a Windjammer as they moved most of their little tall ships south for hurricane season. We got rained on from h.Debbi a lot. There does seem to be a different trend in recent years.

 

[lamont]

from:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=776&tstamp=200709

98L
Not much has changed with the tropical wave (98L) in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles since yesterday, so I will mostly repeat yesterday's discussion. The system has a closed circulation and a small area of heavy thunderstorm activity on the west side of the center. Wind shear of 15 knots from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast are preventing thunderstorm activity from building on the east side of the storm. Several of the reliable models are forecasting that this shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday. There is some dry air to the northeast for the disturbance to contend with, but I expect 98L will be able to overcome this dry air and shear and organize into a tropical depression. Thursday is the earliest this would happen. The UKMET is the only model that develops 98L into a tropical depression.

98L is nearly stationary, and it will be at least six days before it will threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands. A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more northwesterly motion to the storm.

 

[Rick Murchison]

One thing that i've been reading on the forums on wunderground is apparently the paths that Dean and Felix are taking are *highly* unusual for storms this late in the season. Its more typical to see tropical waves coming off of africa which enter the carribean and turn into hurricanes to take a northerly jog and put the whole gulf coast of the US at risk from texas to florida. Either something very odd is going on this year, or we should see a reversion to the mean here and start seeing that kind of behavior in these storms...

Nah... we get these southern route storms from time to time... Gilbert in September '88 is probably the archtype... so to speak...
Rick

 

[lamont]

looks like 98 got ripped apart by wind shear after all, but 99 is looking concerning:

East coast of the U.S. at risk from new tropical disturbance
An area of disturbed weather formed off the north coast of Florida yesterday, and this disturbance has been designated 99L by NHC. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops show that these winds are keeping all of 99L's heavy thunderstorm activity pushed over to the southeast quadrant of the storm. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next five days by the GFS model, so any development of 99L should be slow. Despite the relatively high shear, the computer models are mostly calling for 99L to develop. Steering currents are weak in the region, and the models agree that 99L is likely to make a clockwise loop over the next three days, then potentially threaten (take your pick):

UKMET: North Carolina on Saturday
NOGAPS: Florida on Friday
HWRF: New York on Saturday
ECMWF: South Carolina on Friday
Canadian: North Carolina on Saturday

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 4pm EDT Wednesday.

98L
The tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (98L), couldn't hold together its circulation any longer in the face of four days of wind shear and dry air. The disturbance has degenerated into a loose swirl of disorganized clouds. There is still some rotation evident on satellite imagery, and this region will need to be watched over the next few days.

here's a cool picture of felix's eyewall viewed from a hurricane hunter plane:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/l/LRandyB/162.jpg

more on the wunderblog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=777&tstamp=200709

 

[DandyDon]

I99 doesn't look like it can get it together: http://www.scubaboard.com/showthread.php?t=200864

 

[Hank49]

I just talked to the owner here. I told him to just leave the houses boarded up. We may be in for a busy season. One went north, one went south.....oh Lord....please don't send one down the middle.....
I read that the hurricane plane was almost knocked out of the sky inside Felix's wall. It was rad...pushed way up, then just as fast down...4 Gs.