Hurricane Ike Looks at Northern Antilles, T&Cs, Bahamas

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Correct-o-mundo Don: Hurricane Ike, 2008 / Stormpulse / Hurricane tracking, mapping

It could all change (and probably will, more than once) but it's going to cause someone to have a very bad day.
As of tonight, he's pointed right at SE FL as a Cat 3. I was here (in western Fort Lauderdale) for Wilma as a Cat 3, 98% of Broward County was w/o power, much of it for over a week.
 
Not enough to relax I don't think. He may drop to Cat-2 soon but bounce back over warmer waters - expected to be back to Cat-3 by Saturday night and winds in excess of 110 miles/hour are still tremendous. Flooding is the major risk to life tho. Subject to change, he's expected to inflict heavily on the T&Cs, maybe all of the Bahamas, then possible all of Florida before who knows what next. Looks like a high alert situation for anyone between Purto Rico and Jacksonville FL - unless he rolls over Cuba weakened to re-energize in the Caribbean, or over Key West to come alive in the Gulf. Someone is probly going to pay dearly; hope all are prepared and most flying to Denver.

Yeah, so far the rapid strengthening didn't carry with it an expansion of the wind field into some kind of Katrina-sized monster, though, and the shear is preventing it from developing. So far I haven't seen any estimates of how big the wind field is likely to get when it restrengthens (probably too far out at this point).
 
Denver is quite nice this time of year, but Colorado Springs has a lot to offer. Like I mentioned to an online friend today: "You live in the hurricane state; gotta stay prepared, huh?" Her reply: "Grrrrr"

Feeling a little shell shocked, Dennis? Go mountain hiking, relax. :wink:

As much as we really dislike the cold weather and snow up here in SW Michigan, we have been discussing that we would rather handle the snow (even the unpredictable lake effect snows off of Lake MI) than deal w/ such uncertainty of hurricanes/tropical storms. Maybe better for us to spend winters in FL ( after hurricane season) and summers in MI, and trips all over throughout the year??? so many decisions to make when we decide to retire. . . soon! Take care, Maggi
 
Ike stays on track, and we're looking at tornado warnings in Nashville for sure...yikes!
 
It's a cat 4 now. The computer model doesn't make it look good for anyone. Still blowing hard and moving our way.

at200809_model.gif



I'm not a fan of these things when they hit land at cat 4

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This is going to be an ugly storm. If it goes North, I have a feeling Georgia might not be able to skirt this one. Needless to say, I am preparing for an interesting week. I am on the team that stays at the trauma center. So I will get to ride it out if Ike comes this way! My heart goes out to Florida and all those that have already been affected by the previous storms! My Dad is in Ft Myers so I am keeping a sharp eye out on this one!


Carolyn:shark2:
 
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From Dr.Masters this morning...
Track forecast for Ike
Ike has begun a west-southwest motion in recent hours, which increases the probability that the hurricane will enter the Southeast Bahama Islands on Sunday. The computer models which called for this more southerly path include the GFDL and HWRF models. With its latest run (06Z, 2am EDT) the GFDL takes Ike through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 3 hurricane early Sunday morning. The HWRF has the same track, but makes Ike a Category 4. The two models then diverge, with the GFDL taking Ike into eastern Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Monday, and along the length of Cuba into the Florida Keys as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday morning. The HWRF has Ike skirting the northern coast of Cuba, arriving at Key Largo, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday night.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the path of Ike once the storm reaches the vicinity of South Florida, since a trough of low pressure capable of turning Ike to the north will be passing to the north. A turn to the north over South Florida, or just on either side of the state is possible. One possible track, similar to the NOGAPS model forecast, takes Ike near or over Miami, then northwards towards North Carolina. This is a track similar to Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Another feasible track, similar to the HWRF solution, is like Hurricane Donna of 1960, which blasted through the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, then up the west coast of Florida.

It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:

20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.

Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).

Florida Keys are at high risk
The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at great risk from Ike. With only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland, a 48-72 hours are required to evacuate the Keys. Tropical storm force winds can be expected in the Keys on Tuesday afternoon, which means officials in the Keys may need to start ordering evacuations on Saturday. This would likely begin as an evacuation of visitors and tourists on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning.

I think now would be a good time to leave The Florida Keys; I hate bumper to bumper traffic. Anticipate a traffic split at Key Largo as some may be diverted to Card Sound Road - except I wonder what Hanna is doing to that exposed route today..?!

Ike.gif Ike2.gif

Looks like one model shows him briefly making Cat-5 before skirting the most populated island in the Caribbean - which has already last many lives to storms this year...

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Oops...!

An odd shift now shows all models putting Ike thru the Florida Straits into the Gulf, expected to run wild as Cat-4.

Ike.gif Ike2.gif

He'll be the first to do that from there: Ike3.gif
 
I recieved word at work just before I left that we may be under mandatory coastal evacuations on Monday. Quick note on that, I work for a private insurnace company and this is coming from the state insurance commission. :)
 
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