After rocket science, empirism and personal experience.
I did the other way round. I went from an old 3 mm to a brand new 5 mm, and had to add 3 kilos to my weighting.
I also noticed that when I have not been diving for a while, and that all equipment is dry, 3 kilos addition (i.e 6 kilos total) is a bare minimum. After a couple of days, I can easily drop one kilo, and end up with a 2 kilos addition compare to what I used with my 3 mm (actually it is 2.5, but let's keep it simple)
So to answer your question, which I understand as going from an old 5mm to a new 3 mm, I would say that 2 kilos less should make it.
And you know what? This 2 kilos difference is what they taught me in PADI. Pfew!
But at the end of the day, others are right, the buoyancy check will let you know exactly what's the answer. At least, with this first estimate, you will make it quick.
Cheers:14: