From the AMA Morning Rounds e-mail this morning:
"CDC identifies about 5,800 breakthrough cases of COVID-19 infection among Americans who have been fully vaccinated
The
Wall Street Journal (4/15, Whelan, Subscription Publication) reports the CDC has identified about 5,800 breakthrough cases of COVID-19 infection among more than 66 million Americans who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Based on this data, the CDC says breakthrough cases of infection occur in 0.008% of people who have been fully vaccinated.
CNN (4/15, Tinker, Fox) reports of the 5,800 breakthrough cases, 74 have died and 396 required hospitalization. The researchers also found that 65% of breakthrough cases occurred in women, and 29% of the cases were asymptomatic."
If we round up 0.008 to 0.01% to make the math easier, 0.01% is 1 in 10,000, so at this point (note: rates may change if immunity wanes over time since vaccination), a fully vaccinated American looks to have a less than 1 in 10,000 chance of coming down with COVID-19, if so it's 29% likely to be asymptomatic, the odds of hospitalization (396/5,800x100) = ~ 6.83% and the odds of death look to be 74/5,800x100 = ~ 1.28%.
If I ran the math right. Given where we're at in the vaccination cycle, with an emphasis on the elderly (high risk for serious complications) and health care workers (high risk for exposure), etc..., I imagine these numbers may change with time. And not everyone who's been vaccinated has been exposed, so the risk of getting sick may not hold if active COVID-19 patients cough on you!
My takeaway is that, being fully vaccinated myself, I'm highly unlikely to develop COVID-19 (if my exposure risk matches the U.S. mainstream), and if I do I'll probably get through decently but there are substantial risks.
In other news, from that same AMA e-mail:
"
Pfizer CEO says people will “likely” need COVID-19 booster shots
The Hill (4/15, Coleman) reports Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine six months to a year after receiving the first two doses. Bourla also “suggested vaccinations for coronavirus could be needed every year.” During an AMA webinar, Peter Marks, the director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said, “It is possible, we don’t know for sure, that somewhere at nine months, a year, we may need to have boosters, but we’ll get a better sense of that, probably with each month we’ll get more certainty about when that might be necessary.”"