Hurricane warning for tomorrow night!

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Weather reports all indicate that the storm made landfall near Puerto Morelos and my calcs of Lat/Long agree. As Delta passed Coz it most likely felt the weaker southern and western winds of the storm but may now be getting slightly stronger winds on the tail side of it. I suspect nothing too strong; Puerto Morelos and areas just tot he south will get the brunt of it as the eye passed over that area. Looking at wind plots I also suspect that Isla Mujeres and Cancun Zone Hotelera will receive the brunt of storm surge from the stronger northeast winds.
 
As with any storm, there will be power outages, connectivity will down for a while and debris will need to be cleaned up but I posted what I posted. By this time tomorrow we'll see who was right and who was wrong.
I doubt that any of us care whether you are right or wrong. We just hope for the best.
 
Strength went from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2 at landfall....that's good news!
 
lets hope everyone is safe !

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Nice! Even the palm frond umbrellas seem to be intact.
 
Looking at wind plots I also suspect that Isla Mujeres and Cancun Zone Hotelera will receive the brunt of storm surge from the stronger northeast winds.


I saw some pics from Isla this morning and it does not look too bad, Some downed trees and power lines, unsecured junk blown into the streets.
 
145 MPH winds are serious but everyone must remember those winds are measured in the eye wall at altitude and the actual ground speed of those winds can be considerably lower due to ground friction.

I am not commenting on the rest of your post, since it is a moot point at this point. However, I wanted to correct what you posted above. Yes, the hurricane hunters do measure windspeeds at altitude, but they also use dropsondes to measure surface winds and use SFMR to measure surface conditions as well. When they report a maximum sustained wind as part of the NHC advisories it is based on winds measured or estimated at the surface, not at the altitude the plane is flying.
 
The island fared very well. Storm was downgraded to a Cat 3 last night about 11:00 before making its ascent into the Yucatán. Cozumel did not get a direct hit as the small eye passed north of the island. Cancun and Isla Mujeres got the brunt of the storm and the direct hit. Flooding, debris and power outages (although not island wide) which were expected. No severe damage noted. I cannot figure out to upload video or photo clips From My phone here but have uploaded to our Facebook page @BlueXtSeaDivers
 
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