Future aka New Normal

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I think several millions is a very far stretch. The death tolls are wildly disproportionate when comparing deaths from different countries. Misinformation is causing the most damage to everyone's lives now
Misinformation has been due mostly to the lack of reliable data, which start appearing just now, showing the real under-reporting rate both for asymptomatics and for deaths.
see here from some data relative to the most affected provinces of North Italy:
COVID-19 in Italy: An analysis of death registry data | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
The mortality ratio, before the lockdown measured managed to slow down the virus spreading, raised to more than three times the normal mortality averaged over the 5 previous years:
ciminelli22aprilfig1.png

Without the lockdown the curve had continued to increase much further, in Bergamo (where lockdown was delayed a couple of weeks) it reached a local maximum of 8 times the normal mortality rate, and with no control it is not difficult to predict that it could have easily reached a factor of 10.
Every year in Italy we have more or less 650.000 deaths, approximately 54.000 per month.
If Covid-19 has been left running without control for two months and affected the whole Italy, the number of deaths could have been 540.000/month, hence 1 million deaths in 2 months. This just for Italy...
Of course this is a worst case scenario, and luckily, thanks to the severe lock down, now we have "just" 33.000 deaths (officially, which means 60.000 really, as the article cited shows clearly that we are under-reporting a lot of deaths)...
Already too much, in my opinion, and well enough for justifying the severe lockdown we had suffered.
 
This is demonstrated by the very different value of the Case Fatality Ratio: above 14% here in Italy, less than 6% in the US (and reducing).
There is a lot of variation in fatality rate that mainly comes down to the number of tests done.
Fatality ratio was extremely low in Germany or Austria (0,5%), while they got hit at the same time than Italy or France, both of which showing higher fatality rates (based on the few tests they performed). It rather shows that Germany and Austria tested more people therefore identified more mild cases and acted quickly .
On the other hand some random testing was done in french regions that leading to an estimate of 6% of the whole population that was contaminated...this applied to the 30.000 deaths in the country results to a 0,8% fatality ratio, which is comparable to... Germany.
 
Laurie, where did you find the news that Sulawesi "cam out of lockdown yesterday" ? In really think that is not correct. WE never had a "lock down" such as other countries, but you cannot even travel from on city to another city (40 kilometers) without restrictions and much paperwork yet.

The notice was made on Facebook by a resident and fellow diver.
 
There is a lot of variation in fatality rate that mainly comes down to the number of tests done.
Fatality ratio was extremely low in Germany or Austria (0,5%), while they got hit at the same time than Italy or France, both of which showing higher fatality rates (based on the few tests they performed). It rather shows that Germany and Austria tested more people therefore identified more mild cases and acted quickly .
On the other hand some random testing was done in french regions that leading to an estimate of 6% of the whole population that was contaminated...this applied to the 30.000 deaths in the country results to a 0,8% fatality ratio, which is comparable to... Germany.
The number of unreported cases is certainly very large.
However Germany is performing a number of daily tests per 1000 inhabitants much smaller than here in Italy.
See here a chart whete you can interactivel chhose the countries:
Daily COVID-19 tests per thousand people
The number of reported deaths is also grossly underestimated.
Here in Italy we know with certainity that we are under reporting deaths with a ratio of less than 2, as in the past three months we had an excess mortality, compared with the 5 previous years, of approximately 60000 deaths, while the official C19 deaths are 33000.
I do not have access to the same data for Germany, however it is well known that a number of factors cause their much larger underestimation.
One of them is that they consider only deaths where C19 was the only disease, if any other disease is present, then the death is classified as "comorbility" and not reported as C19.
The only reliable metric is the comparison of the total number of deaths, for any cause, of previous years.
 
Do'nt know where you got your information that Germany performed smaller testing than Italy.
From end of march, Germany carried out 70,000 tests per day a week later they were conducting 115.000 tests per day (week of April 4th, peak of the virus), which means a ratio from 0,9 to 1,4 per 1000 capita, more than any country and more than twice than Italy at the same time while it was the peak of the virus.
Same goes for Austria, same for Portugal, etc... where fatality rate is not up to what you mention, all these countries having tested thoroughly.
Here in France there's kind of consensus coming from the medical grounds that established the immediate fatality rate around 0,8%.
 
If Covid-19 is possibly already weakening in a short period of time to just the strength of a common cold, perhaps a vaccine will not be of significance in the future
"If....possibly.....perhaps....."
I'm certainly not going to making any definite plans based on that!
 

I've never had a flu vaccine, and have never considered getting one. I'd rather just deal with the flu, as a vaccine far from guarantees getting sick from all different types of flu anyway
 
I've never had a flu vaccine, and have never considered getting one. I'd rather just deal with the flu, as a vaccine far from guarantees getting sick from all different types of flu anyway
Appreciate your input, but I was asking the poster I quoted.
 
https://www.shearwater.com/products/peregrine/

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